Report from the Democratic State Party Central Committee Meeting, Sunday March 8th

You are receiving this email as part of my private online community related to the El Paso Democratic Movement. I have decided to regularly publish what I see and experience within the Democratic Party’s “comings & goings” on as an independent member of four important committees and the Obama Movement in general. I came to this inspiration from a number of angles in that first, the Democratic Party is not a hierarchically based political movement and is best served when there are many paths leading up the mountain top.

The second comes from the inspiration of Dan Slater’s example where he has provided his personal experiences in his role as a welcomed information resource for party members. I think I too have a unique view sitting on four committees while also being part of a extensive local network. If you don’t like this simply tell me and I will remove you from my list. Also I intend to republish these email posts on my blog; www.obamaguy.blogspot.com.

• State Executive Committee
• State Central Committee
• County Executive Committee
• County Precinct Co-Chair
• Activist volunteer leader with Organizing for America

Before I get started with my State Central Committee Report here are some upcoming local party and activist events you may want to pen in your calendar: I think that is important.

·        Wednesday, March 11th at 6 PM, EPC Precinct Development Committee will meet at Poor Richard’s Bookstore located at 320 No. Tejon. The outgoing super-ubber Chairperson, Karen Davidson will hand over the gavel to Linda Martin. I am member of this committee and we will find out how the new EPC Executive Counsel will reform it going forward including new stuff about HD leadership and official handbook changes. krd555@comcast.net 

·        Thursday, March 12th at 7 PM, Nick Solter a fellow blogger and progressive Democratic friend is hosting a presentation and discussion on a Single-Payer Approach to Universal Health Coverage. It is a kickoff for a CO Springs chapter of Health Care for All Colorado. Location: High Plains Church Unitarian Universalist (1825 Dominion Way, 80918). Contact: Nick Solter (719 488-2083) nicholas.solter@gmail.com

·        Thursday March 12th Decision 2009: Colorado Springs Candidate and Issue Election Forum located at the Carnegie Reading Room, Penrose Library, 20 N Cascade Ave.  Free and open to the public, call Citizens Project at 520-9899.

·        Thursday March 12th Organization for America Conference Call, 6:30 PM

·        Friday, March 13th, at 6:00 pm, St. Patrick's Day Party and Fundraiser for the EPC Democratic Party.  The event will be held at the Garden of the Gods Club.  There will be a silent and live auction, Irish music and rumored Senator Michael Bennet speaking. (He told me personally he was coming to the event!)

·        Saturday, March 14th, at 12:00 pm St. Patrick's Day Parade in Downtown Colorado Springs, (Tejon St)  Join local fellow Democrats in the parade.  Line up will begin at 11:00 am. 

·        Sunday, March 15th, 3-5:00 pm The Candidate Development Committee for the EPC Democratic Party is hosting the Progressive Majority for the development of candidates and campaign workers.  Located at the Carnegie Room at Penrose Library, 20 No. Cascade Ave, John Morris 473-8713 or john@peakdems.com.

·        Monday, March 16th at 6 PM EPC’s Executive Committee will be meeting as a new group. On top of the agenda is the new HD leadership format along with new VAN responsibilities plus the standing item regarding the proposed Exec Director Location is at the EPC Dem HQ located at 25 No. Iowa St. alice@peakdems.org   

·        Monday, March 16th, 6:00-7:00 pm James Crowe on loan from Washington State’s  SEIU will be holding a presentation about the Employee Free Choice Act and Healthcare Reform located at 4303 Stonesthrow VW 80922, 232-4974 RSVP to Michelle

2009 State Central Committee Report

Sunday afternoon the Colorado State Democratic Central Committee met in Denver at its Denver Convention Center. El Paso County (EPC) had a good attendance making the trek north on the weekend. County officers; Jason DeGroot, Judi Ingelido, and Alice Hines lead our delegation where also at the meeting was Hal Bidlack, Judy Beasley, Jan King, Michael Maday, Linda Martin, Jeanette Nitzberg, Allen Nye, Jim Phillips, Barbara Thummalapally, Jennifer Trujillo-Sanchez, , James Tucker, Diane Whitley, and myself. I hope I didn’t miss anyone. Kudos’ go out to Jan King who reserved many seats up front where most of us congregated at the Central Committee Meeting. I also carried a proxy for Sheila Foley-Wallace and I noticed that at least Alice Hines brought a proxy for someone, for as a delegation we represented more than 50% of our 30-member delegation. The Central Committee is comprised of the County’s Executive Officers, the county’s elected state officials, (Dennis Apuan, Michael Merrifield, and John Morse) and twenty-two at-large members elected at our County Central Committee Reorg Meeting that took place on Saturday, January 30^th.

Other Central Committee Members include Annie Bowen, Judy Fender, David Justice, Mike Makish, Tom Niemen, Steve Smith, and Val St. Cloud. Again I am still being introduced to many people and if I didn’t recognize you there on Sunday please give me a call or email me.

I was able to ride up with Alice Hines and Jennifer Trujillo-Sanchez, where Jennifer was very kind to drive. This allowed me to get to know both these capable women better as they were also one of my Obama compatriots last year. I think we all enjoyed each other’s company. During the trip we all decided to start trying to figure out how to a better provide group transportation to Denver for meetings like this. We need to rethink the carbon footprint individual driving does, the respective individual costs and the missed opportunity to get people together and learn how to better work as a team. I will take this up at the upcoming County Executive Committee Meeting later this month. One idea is to model off what a few northern CO counties do with providing partnered bus options where we could team up with the Arkansas River Valley county parties.
Meeting Reports: Our car pool troupe didn’t make it to the CD-5 reorganization meeting that convened at 10:30 AM. I did talk with Dan Slater, who later that afternoon was re-elected by acclamation to his 3^rd term as the State Party’s 1st Vice Chair, where he informed me that his wife Brandy was elected to CD-5 Chair. Hal Bidlack then told me he too was elected to the post of CD-5’s 1^st Vice Chair. I am sure our capable county’s 2^nd Chair, Lois Fornander, will announce the rest of the executive officers who were elected to lead our Congressional District.

The main event, the State Party Central Committee convened at 1 PM whereupon w re-elected by acclamation Pat Waak to her historic 3^rd term as our State Party Chair. The Denver Post has a nice article on the event here: (http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_11867817)

She then took the gavel and allowed a parade of Colorado Democratic Party heavyweights to make speech at the podium starting with Senator Mark Udall. The senior senator made a personal point for all of us to keep calling him Mark instead of his new title, senator.

Colorado’s junior senator, Michael Bennet followed Mark with a stirring speech that he outlined the basic “W” hole that was left behind by the past President. Specifically increasing the deficit from $5T (where we had a revenue surplus) to the current $10T deficit and a revenue shortfall. That along with a deep recession and two wars and enough said. Mike Maday and I sat directly behind Senator Bennet as he waited to take the podium. Before the meeting got under way we joked with his staffers about making certain the senator visited often El Paso County where he turned around and said he was visiting the county Friday night. (Is that a scoop?) Of course Mike and I didn’t bend the ear of our new senator like our own Allen Nye who had an extensive conversation with him beforehand.

Congressman Perlmutter followed our US Senators with a strong message of about the party teamwork that has resulted in Colorado going from red to blue in just these six years. After Perlmutter they introduced the new Congressman from Boulder, Jared Polis who came to the podium to speak a few words that the choir liked. Governor Ritter was represented by one his cabinet members as I didn’t get his name. The Governor I was told was traveling in Europe.

Whereupon the many standing ovations the actual Reorg meeting resumed, where we got back to business re-electing the entire executive slate without opposition. Dan Slater made the biggest splash when he displayed a PowerPoint slide of how much the Democrats have grown since 2002. Back before 2002 there were only a few pocket of counties where Democratic officials were holding office, now only four counties, Park, Teller, Douglas and Elbert, do not have an elected Democratic Official. It was a stunning graphic of a regional realignment. My note was that if you take out El Paso and Douglas Counties from the statewide races in 2008, Colorado is voting 57-42% Democratic. Think about that.

We received reports from the Initiative Chairs that included Latino, Disability, Young Democrats, African-American, Progressive, and Stonewall Democrats and then we created a new initiative Labor. Then by acclamation we approved a motion to endorse the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA). Things seemed to be going smooth and then we came to the meeting to consider changing some rules.

Well the seemingly sleepy Democratic blood immediately began boil as questions arose regarding a few “curious” proposals. There were questions as to jurisdiction redefinitions regarding disputes in controversies, secret balloting when it came to elected delegates changes to alternate compositions (reducing alternates by 50%) multiple county state senate and house district jurisdictions. There was actually a meeting breaking out of celebration!

Jan King I had immediate objections beforehand in reducing the alternates from caucuses to the convention/assemblies. The Rules Chairman when asked why the need for change was not informative to my liking, nor many in the assemblage when she said either “there were too many or too few alternates”. The reasoning just didn’t cut it. After a few other questions that were beginning to resemble more of a discussion, Dan Slater moved the body to the discussion phase.

The problem I immediately saw was the inherent voting strategy laid out for the meeting where those seeking to make these rules changes wanted to group all the changes into one resolution. There was a motion to disengage each rule change into separate considerations, but that was voted down in a fairly close voice vote. So discussion began, I was the second person to speak at the microphone and object to the alternate reduction where I asked the body who here was an alternate through the 2008 process. With almost 300 in attendance a good 1/3^rd rose, I then told them that half of you would not have been able to participate in the process. I then said that this year represented a political alignment both in party affiliation and in citizen participation and any dampening of participation was bad policy. I got a good applause. After me a chorus of objectors to the provision lined up to the microphone, where upon a savvy politico offered a motion to cut to the chase. She sought to table the rule changes (for a future meeting) and get the problems out of the way so we could adjourn. The Central Committee voted in acclamation to table the rules changes.

My reading of the CDP By-Laws state that the Rules Committee shall be formed 10 days after Pat Waak’s election. New rule or amendments than must be submitted to the standing committee 30 days prior to the next Central Committee Meeting where upon the Committee Members are to receive a copy of the proposed changes 10-days beforehand in the “Call”.

In my opinion this was an unfortunate and presumptive action by those in the Rules Committee and Party Officers. I witnessed an almost similar pushback by our own County Central Committee in January regarding the change of rules regarding removing absent or unresponsive Precinct co-chairs as immediately the body of persons recoiled to examine whether there was a misguided effort to dampen or lesson the opportunity to participate in the democratic process. The party regulars who toil and volunteer long hours might not recognize but this attention and desire to keep even part time activists a foot in the game. I assessment is that people now know how important it is to be part of the process even though they might not be fully engaged as a full time volunteer.

As a minor party leader I am hearing this loud and clear. I want to thank Jan King to immediately objecting to this provision as we sat beforehand reading the agenda and proposed rule changes. To those party leaders proposing rule changes, to them well-meaning and even appropriate stuff like house-cleaning or what not be careful to understand the environment that has now changed in America and Colorado. Also be prepared that this part of the meeting might suddenly turn into a contentious even challenging affair so be wise to present the changes in a clear and appropriate manner.

After the motion to table the rules amendments the Central Committee Meeting adjourned for us since EPC had already elected its State Executive Committee delegation back on January 30th. Our executive committee includes; Hal Bidlack, Mike Maday, Jennifer Trujillo-Sanchez, Diane Whitley and myself who are part of the Central Committee and all in attendance last Sunday, plus Jay Fawcett, Jay Ferguson, Renee Hartslief, and Michelle Maksimowicz, a truly capable sample of our county’s growing leadership. From there we broke up, happy to see this standing room crowd that easily made quorum clearly still full of political energy ready to permeate back to our home counties. That is my report, if you have anything to add simply write me back or contribute to my blog.

Understanding the Soul of the Modern Conservative Movement

This morning on MSNBC's Morning Joe, Sam Tannehaus was a guest discussing his expansive essay in the New Republic Magazine, "Conservatism is Dead". Too bad there is not a link to the interview but may I suggest you read the article in full. Since my childhood I have always sought to understand the conservative mind, its soul and the primal motivating forces that have come to bring our society on a cliff we are at today. Tannehaus has provided it for me.

As many know I grew up in a traditional Republican family where I was simply a fish out of water and eventually a social outcast. Often my father would deeply describe me as a liberal with all forms of mocking and disrespect. Then a few years ago he read a biography about Franklin Roosevelt and had to admit that for 75 years he was wrong about FDR and that indeed he saved the United State, but still my father would characterize the Democrats in an emotional denegrating way. Then I have a friend, Tom, a college roommate whom I adopted who ebodies in mind and soul the modern conservative personality and worldview. He is unrepentent in holding this totally entrenched view regardless of its outcomes. But knowing these individuals intimately and many others in less closeness I have never come to understand what is really under their skins until today.

Tannehaus opens his essay by saying the obvious;

Today, the situation is much bleaker. After George W. Bush's two terms, conservatives must reckon with the consequences of a presidency that failed, in large part, because of its fervent commitment to movement ideology [emphasis added]: the aggressively unilateralist foreign policy; the blind faith in a deregulated, Wall Street-centric market; the harshly punitive "culture war" waged against liberal "elites."

In many ways he sums up the political discourse that has held our society hostage going back to my youth of Nixon. He continues by defining the political framework of 2008-'09:

That these precepts should have found their final, hapless defender in John McCain, who had resisted them for most of his long career, only confirms that movement doctrine retains an inflexible and suffocating grip on the GOP

More telling than Barack Obama's victory is the consensus, steadily building since Election Day, that the nation has sunk--or been plunged--into its darkest economic passage since the Great Depression. And, as Obama pushes boldly ahead, apparently with public support, the right is struggling to reclaim its authority as the voice of opposition.

But what if the conservative soul, what seems to be propelling its irresponsible oppposition to good governance be it managing the economy or faithfully leading our nation internationally. He notes that the soul has not found the admission that possibly it was their movement, their philosophy, their actions from that belief system that might be to blame what is ailing our society?

Yet, even as the right begins to regroup, it is not clear that its leaders have absorbed the full implications of their defeat. They readily concede that the Democrats are in charge and, in Obama, have a leader of rare political skills. Many on the right also admit that the specific failures of the outgoing administration were legion. But what of the verdict issued on movement conservatism itself?

Tannehaus then begins to prosecute and expose the conservative movement as being a fraud to itself and therefore allowing me to understand why I could never get a fix on its internals. The author then begins to go deeply poli-sci to prosecute his case of the death the modern conservative movement.

What conservatives have yet to do is confront the large but inescapable truth that movement conservatism is exhausted and quite possibly dead. And yet they should, because the death of movement politics can only be a boon to the right, since it has been clear for some time the movement is profoundly and defiantly un-conservative--in its ideas, arguments, strategies, and above all its vision. [again emphasis added]

What passes for conservatism today would have been incomprehensible to its originator, Edmund Burke, who, in the late eighteenth century, set forth the principles by which governments might nurture the "organic" unity that bound a people together even in times of revolutionary upheaval. Burke's conservatism was based not on a particular set of ideological principles [more emphasis] but rather on distrust of all ideologies. In his most celebrated writings, his denunciation of the French Revolution and its English champions, Burke did not seek to justify the ancien regime and its many inequities. Nor did he propose a counter-ideology. Instead he warned against the destabilizing perils of revolutionary politics, beginning with its totalizing nostrums. [emphasis added]

"Of course!" I exclaimed upon hearing and reading this, those who have stolen and co-opted the term conservatism are not anything conservative. This is why the facts continually get in the way like how the Reagan, GHW Bush and GW Bush's Administration grew the deficit and government bigger than any Democratic President and yet the conservatives would rail upon Democratic Big Government. It was smoke and mirrors but why how and why a conservative mind or voter go for this?

In some ways a few years ago I had a drag out argument with my friend Tom over the very definition of liberalism. Defined by Merriam-Webster:

2C: a political philosophy based on belief in progress, the essential goodness of the human race, and the autonomy of the individual and standing for the protection of political and civil rights.

Tom maintained in all emotional and intellectual fervor that this was actually the definition of conservatism. Through the never-ending din of an argument I had to physically send him the dictionary definitions to his chagrin and where he still has not paid the bet---typical sore losing conservative I maintain! Merriam-Webster defines conservatism:

2B: a political philosophy based on tradition and social stability, stressing established institutions, and preferring gradual development to abrupt change.

Now that is more like it, but as Tannehaus prosecutes the modern conservative movement is nothing like the definition. Instead he writes:

The story of postwar American conservatism is best understood as a continual replay of a single long-standing debate. On one side are those who have upheld the Burkean ideal of replenishing civil society by adjusting to changing conditions. [governing pragmaticism as defined by Burke,---governments were obligated to use their powers to meliorate intolerable conditions.] On the other are those committed to a revanchist counterrevolution, the restoration of America's pre-welfare state ancien regime. And, time and again, the counterrevolutionaries have won. The result is that modern American conservatism has dedicated itself not to fortifying and replenishing civil society but rather to weakening it through a politics of civil warfare.

This is more like what I have seen through my fifty plus years, the mindless and committed exercise to weakening society through civil warfare---AKA the CULTURAL WARS. This war has been waged throughout every vessel in our society; in homes, schools, workplace, entertainment, TV, churches, organizations and even sports. I personally witnessed how a righting neo-conservative, Michael Ledeen, who attempted to use the firing of my friend and Hall of Fame coach, Bob Knight at Indiana University as a stage to write an essay that Knight was fired for cultural political reasons and not because of internal IU politics. Both Bob and I found it shameful and a complete manipulation of the entire event. But Ledeen was serious, the same way Ledeen was personally serious to me in attempting to sell the Iraq War. Everything seemed to be framed by this cultural war and that was because of the modern conservative movement.

Tannehaus continues his prosecution:

One reason is that the most intellectually sophisticated founders of postwar conservatism were in many instances ex-Marxists, who moved from left to right but remained persuaded that they were living in revolutionary times and so retained their absolutist fervor. In place of the Marxist dialectic they formulated a Manichaean politics of good and evil, still with us today, and their strategy was to build a movement based on organizing cultural antagonisms. Many have observed that movement politics most clearly defines itself not by what it yearns to conserve but by what it longs to destroy--"statist" social programs; "socialized medicine"; "big labor"; "activist" Supreme Court justices, the "media elite"; "tenured radicals" on university faculties; "experts" in and out of government.

But, if it's clear what the right is against, what exactly has it been for? This question has haunted the movement from its inception in the 1950s, when its principal objective was to undo the New Deal and reinstate the laissez-faire Republicanism of the 1920s.

To any political scientist this an obvious backward thinking philisophy. Any genuine student of history understands that in all reality a trend towards government reliance in the economy and society was a function of basic political pragmaticism with the unstoppable rise of industrial capitalism and its extraordinary advances of the new technologies capitialism created. But it appears the conservative soul is stuck in pre-New Deal thought. Is that why GW Bush thought his reelection political capital gave him permission to pursue the privatization of Social Security, that even he admitted was a mistake?

But the modern state is complex where liberal or conservative, activist goverance is about guarding the interests and needs of the entire population, not just a political or socio-economic class. But how does this reconcile with reality when one leaves scholarly discussions of rhetoric when the political discourse faces actual issues of social policy. Modern conservatives tend quietly to forget the ideas of nurturing the "organic" unity and adopting the views of the American business community. as in denouncing things like federally sponsored school lunch programs as a "vehicle for totalitarianism" or Social Security as a form of "remorseless collectivism"----errr the cannon shots of the civil warfare.

Tannehaus then proposes that:

For years to come, this paradox would roil the right, which remained split between the Burkean politics of realistic adjustment and the revanchist politics of counterrevolution.

He then takes us through a long course of conservative politics from the 1950's to Nixon and finally to Reagan. First he holds that there was an intellectual revolution after Goldwater's huge defeat reaching its peak in 1975. He then holds to liberalism's failures:

As liberals unwittingly squeezed themselves into the stereotypes conservatives had invented, conservative intellectuals began to look like prophets for identifying a self-appointed "managerial elite" (Burnham's term from 1941) that was leading a "liberal revolution"....

...This liberal overreach combined with the right's new sophistication promised a new period in U.S. politics, one in which conservatives, fortified by Burkean principles, might emerge as the most articulate voices of "civil society," separating out the strands of true reform, which drew on inherited values, from "liberal-left" attempts to make those values extinct. Perhaps the Great Society could be retooled, tamed into a legitimate extension of the New Deal. But, to accomplish this, the right would have to deal honestly with capitalism and its many ambiguities.

He then broaches the subject that even invaded the current Presidential race, Vietnam, Watergate and Nixon.

In retrospect, two horrific events, Vietnam and Watergate, crowd out all other memories of the early 1970s. But the decade began with the promise of a mature conservatism. Richard Nixon, who took office as a credentialed anticommunist, had the authority to orchestrate a quick end to the Vietnam war, something voters clearly wanted

...Of course it didn't happen. Why not? A big reason was Nixon himself. Rather than reconciling the two strains of conservatism, he played them against each other, sometimes strategically, sometimes cynically, sometimes paranoically, always chaotically.

...The polarization climaxed with Watergate. That cluster of White House crimes, once uncovered and prosecuted, gave conservatives the ideal occasion to reassert their role as guardians of social order. It was, after all, conservatives--most notably Burnham in Congress and the American Tradition--who had been inveighing for years against the destabilizing dangers of overreaching "Caesarist" presidents. Burnham was incensed when Nixon invoked "executive privilege" to evade congressional inquiry into "[t]he shoddy little trail of this pipsqueak Watergate business."

But the new generation of movement intellectuals interpreted Watergate differently. Just as liberals suspicious of Bill Clinton rallied around him during his impeachment, so Nixon's critics on the right defended him during Watergate. The true culprit, they decided, wasn't Nixon. It was the dark liberal forces arrayed against him. A "long term change in the equation of political power," Jeffrey Hart theorized in National Review, had placed the president at the mercy of "the federal bureaucracy," which, "though nominally part of the 'executive branch,' actually operates with considerable autonomy." But this "long term" change appeared to have happened overnight, with the election of the first president who had ties to the right. Hart also identified a second culprit, the "liberal-left bias of the major media."

Ah Nixon and the real enemy, the dark liberal forces that we heard bantered about for thirty years. Not that Nixon was acting unconstitutionally or criminally but somehow the victims made him do it along with the liberal-left media! Remember this is revenge politics bent on weakening society not strengthening it.

The argument that political power emanated from an alliance of liberal government bureaucrats and a sympathetic press became the favored theme in the movement's next phase...

...The attack on the "new class," rooted in cultural hostility, dominated movement conservatism for the next 30 years, up through the administration of George W. Bush. On one side, as Rusher described it, were "businessmen, manufacturers, hard-hats, blue-collar workers, and farmers." On the other: "a liberal verbalist elite (the dominant media, the major foundations and research institutions, the educational establishment, the federal and state bureaucracies) and a semipermanent welfare constituency."

The battle lines of the cultural war beginning with Reagan's Revolution, Ronald Reagan, its denunciations of "big government" and "welfare queens" supported the devotion ( to supply-side economics, known in another era as the Horse and Sparrow Economics, meaning if the horse ate enough oats, the sparrow had enough manure to get some food.

With Reagan, the argument between realism and revanchism all but ended. The revanchists had won. They consolidated their power during the 1990s when Republicans spent the better part of Bill Clinton's two terms trying to delegitimize him, even as he collaborated with them "to end welfare as we know it."

...The right, which for so long had deplored the politics of "class warfare," had become the most adept practitioners of that same politics. They had not only abandoned Burke. They had become inverse Marxists, placing loyalty to the movement--the Reagan Revolution--above their civic responsibilities.

...Though, inevitably, most conservatives vote Republican, they are not party loyalists and the party has to woo them to win votes. This movement is issue oriented. It will happily meld with the Republican party if the party is 'right' on the issues; if not, it will walk away." By this calculus, all the obligations flow in only one direction. Parties are accountable to movement purists, while purists incur no reciprocal debt. They determine the "right" position, and the party's job is to advance it.

...By their lights, they are right to do so. Bush, so often labeled a traitor to conservative principles, was in fact more steadfastly devoted to them than any of his Republican predecessors--including Ronald Reagan....At his peak, following September 11, Bush commanded the loyalties of every major faction of the Republican Party. The big central domestic proposal of his first term, the $1.3 trillion tax cut, extended Reagan's massive "tax reform" from the 1980s. Shortly before the Iraq invasion, Martin Anderson, Reagan's top domestic policy adviser, told Bill Keller (writing in The New York Times Magazine) that Bush was unmistakably Reagan's heir. "On taxes, on education, it was the same. On Social Security, Bush's position was exactly what Reagan always wanted and talked about in the '70s," Anderson said. "I just can't think of any major policy issue on which Bush was different." The prime initiative of Bush's second term, the attempt to privatize Social Security, drew directly on movement scripture:

...And then there was Iraq, the event that shaped Bush's presidency and, by most accounts, brought both him and the movement to ruin. It was also the event most at odds with classic conservative thinking. It is customary even now to say that the architects of the Iraq occupation failed because they naively placed too much faith in democracy. In fact, the problem was just the opposite. So contemptuous of the actual requirements of civil society at home, Bush's war planners gave no serious thought to how difficult it might be to create such a society in a distant land with a vastly different history. Those within the administration who tried to make this case were marginalized or removed from power.

Thus Tannehaus concludes his prosecution that Conservatism is Dead because it never was conservative and about a political philosophy bent on revenge and attempting to build a past ideology eventually with no regards to governments were obligated to use their powers to meliorate intolerable conditions or nurture the "organic" unity. Thus the Republican Party is not really conservative--in its ideas, arguments, strategies, and above all its vision, it is a defunct counterrevolutionary force that screwed up our society.

Organizing for America TWO-POINT-OH!

I have been remiss contributing to my own journal, this political blog. In part it is because my family's circumstance and the other is that I needed some kind of breather and the last was I didn't know where to go. In the meantime a couple of things:

1. Sue and I joined the National Day of Service on Martin Luther King's birthday and ironically the last day of GW Bush's last official day as President. We symbolically cleaned up a roadside/hillside on west Unitah Avenue as an off shoot of the big group that Marty Caldwell organized to clean up Monument Creek at Monument Park. We filled 14 or garbage bags, found car bumpers, needles, GW's silver spoon, a pair of shorts, McCain/Palin political signs among the debris tossed out of cars or windblown from neighborhoods. The six-person crew included John Atkinson led by his wife Nancy Bentley, and their neighbors Al and Carolyn Cyr along with my wife Sue. The CS Indy made a small mention of it in this weeks edition in the article Obamanos. All told our two groups appeared pick up over 36 bags of trash and that did not include another group picking up trash in the Rockrimmon area, while also painting a free medical clinic, cleaning a literacy center, organizing the new Care & Share facility, setting up a foreclosure volunteer service among other projects.
   
2. The final weekend of the month the El Paso County Democratic Party's Central Committee met to reorganize and elected an Obama campaign leadership fronted by Jason DeGroot as the County Chairperson. Alice Hines was elected Secretary, while Judi Ingiledo was elected 1st Vice Chair, Lois Fornander as 2nd Vice Chair and Tom Martin as Treasurer.
   
3. At that meeting I was honored to be selected to the Democratic Party's State Executive Committee, its Central Committee and El Paso County's Executive Committee. I intend to run for House District 21 leadership when we reconvene in March.
   

Now after the euphoria of the Inauguration it is time to go back to work on freeing this society from its own self-inflicted pains and collective ignorance. This weekend I participated in two Organizing for America house parties regarding the Recovery and Reinvestment Package also known as the 'Stimulus Bill' and there was great consensus, which I was not surprised. In short the consensus was why so much in tax rebates and so much less in investment spending. I have told everyone to call our Senators and express your opinions. You can access their contact information on my sidebar links.

Okay some points on economics: Are you aware that we are standing over the abyss of a 21st Century Economic Depression right now? It is possible that we have already fallen in, possibly on September 15th when the financial markets crashed not unlike when we had fallen into a recession in December 2007 during the sickly holiday shopping season. Some simple points to make you aware how precarious the economy is.

• Debt to GDP at historic high and the same as in 1929
• Real Estate bubble has burst with paper values 100% over actual values
• Flat wages are now descending due to climbing unemployment and underemployment rates. Real unemployment rates estimated to be between 14-15% and climbing.
  
• El Paso County is losing 1000 jobs a month since August with a full percentage point increase in the unemployed insured rate climbing from 6% to 6.9%.
  
• Estimated continued job loss will be unabated until the 3rd quarter national and locally where an estimated 4 million jobs will be lost nationally and 6000-8000 or more locally. This will move local insured unemployment near 9% and underemployment/permanently long-term unemployed near 18% and nationally approach 10% insured unemployed.

The causes if you are interested.

• Debt has increased substantially since the Reagan Administration where the successive Bush Administration increased it to this historic levels. Clinton reduced it temporarily, this is known as the neo-conservative's era. Lowering taxes on upper incomes and increasing spending is the primary culprit.
• Supply side economics is never valid but it is historic, prior to this era, it was in the 1920's, early 1890's both resulting in deep recessions and the depression. In the 19th century supply-side economics was called the "Horse and Sparrow Theory". If the horse eats enough oats the sparrow gets its share after the fact.
  
• Flat wages occured through three forces, loss of manufacturing sector, loss of jobs to off shore, lack of genuine economic expansion outside of speculating financial markets.
• The Real Estate bubble was purpotrated by two forces, cheap cash or debt fostered by the removal of regulations in the banking industry allowing commercial banks to merge with investment banks and creating the real estate bundles (AKA Trusts) and infusion of cash at the top of the social ladder.
  
• El Paso County job loss is due to the loss of the high tech job/industry sector where manufacturing and high end service positions were shuttered.
  

What can you do? Organize and get involved making noise and making things happen locally. Help out Rob Andrews and Jim Gardner.

Day of Change

Today many things come to front. Obama and his hope and change agenda is not simply looking to change things incrementally, as if fine-tuning an old television or synchronizing a watch, it is hurtling the U.S. and the world into a 21st Century conscience. The 20th Century for all its technological promise offered great human carnage and suffering. The era of two world wars, a global cold war and global economy. The social order and traditions of the 19th Century were stripped by a multitude of violence and destruction as the world found itself being pushed around by failed promises of many ideologies including the latest coined, neo-conservatism. The past six months we have witnessed the high priests of American Capitalism come desperately to the government that they previously chastised almost universally as being the root of all America's problems as the only safe harbor to save their economic empires. The failures of sweeping pronouncements that unilateral military might can solve geo-global perennial problems all legacies of the 20th Century.

Obama, possibly the most unlikely of potentials presidents when he entered into his kindergarten class in 1966, born two years after Hawaii had become a state to a young a Kenyan national collegiate student and a 18 year-old American collegiate student where they were married three months pregnant. Two-and-half years later she was granted divorce. In Obama's first grade his mother married an Indonesian national where they then moved to Indonesia where soon thereafter he had a sister. Home schooled in English he was eventually sent back to Hawaii to be raised by his grandmother where he was sent to an excellent high school as his mother returned again from what resulted in another failed marriage in 1980. The promise that has now become America's hope came from these humble and varied childhood experiences where among anything Obama is fully versed in multi-cultural, multi-racial traditions and backgrounds where he wrote in 1995 in his first book;

" In his 1995 memoir, he described his struggles as a young adult to reconcile social perceptions of his multi-racial heritage."

From here the promise unfolded but not like most other American Presidents. Yes Obama had earned scholarships, first to Occidental College in California where he met my friends Barbara and Vinai. Then onto to prestigious Columbia University where graduated stayed for a year and worked for a few firms until he took what has now become the famed community organizer stint in Chicago's poverty stricken south side. I know the south side and I tell you venturing into those neighborhoods can be scary even for a kid who grew up in hard-smitten Waukegan with its own African-American and Hispanic ghettos.

There Obama goes onto a more traditional path attending Law School at the umbra-prestigious Harvard University succeeding as the first African-American Harvard Law Review editor. It was at this point the world should have taken notice. Unlike many of his classmates Obama did not cash in during the "ME" generation returning to Chicago to lead a project vote registering 150,000 of an estimated 400,000 unregistered African-American voters in Illinois. Again there was notice as Crains' Chicago Business identified him as and under 40 year power in the city. Teaching constitutional law at the prestigious Chicago University Law School Obama also joined a law firm specializing in civil rights and neighborhood development matters. Politically he was elected to a State Senator south side seat from highly partisan and paternal Chicago he concentrated on ethics and health care reform in bi-partisan efforts. He sponsored a law increasing tax credits for low-income workers, negotiated welfare reform, and promoted increased subsidies for childcare while also co-chairman of the bipartisan Joint Committee on Administrative Rules, Obama supported Republican Governor Ryan's payday loan regulations and predatory mortgage lending regulations aimed at averting home foreclosures. He sponsored and led unanimous, bipartisan passage of legislation to monitor racial profiling by requiring police to record the race of drivers they detained and legislation making Illinois the first state to mandate videotaping of homicide interrogations along with during his 2004 general election campaign for U.S. Senate, police representatives credited Obama for his active engagement with police organizations in enacting death penalty reforms.

But was he Presidential material? In July 2004, Obama wrote himself and then delivered the keynote address at the 2004 DNC Convention, considered now his national and international coming out where he stirred a calling. In it he described his maternal grandfather's experiences as a WWII veteran in legendary Patton's Army where he benefited from FDR's New Deal and GI Bill, where then he spoke about changing the U.S. government's economic and social priorities. He explored many examples from the U.S.'s history, criticizing the heavily partisan views of the electorate and asked Americans to find unity in diversity, stating:

"There is not a liberal America and a conservative America; there's the United States of America."

Later it was considered the highlight of the convention and confirmed his status as the Democratic Party's brightest new star. Now he went on to win the most contentious Democratic Party nomination in modern times beating the party's first family and then winning a stunning landslide victory in the general election.

For me the quote that sums up his movement is, "We are the ones we've been waiting for". Yes it is time for change, as how history seems to always find the most humble and seemingly least likely among us to rise up and lead those that have been waiting for.

What should we expect going forward? Economically things will continue to get worse. The structure of capitalism and marketplace economics is wholly out of balance in the international and domestic institutions. Debt and money are upside down. There is an over capacity, lack of need and too much productivity, projecting little prosperity. The rich and the corporate plutocracy have raped and pillaged the system for their own ME agenda's without responsibility or ethics. Politically our nation and world is without a genuine moral compass lacking the vestige to truly address social and personal injustice against the world's unprivileged. Environmentally the world is challenged with rapidly unstable climate and the prospects of serious climate change offering challenges to substantive's and survival. Militarily the means of mass killing is now being distributed to more groups with more absence of deterrence and responsibility. Poverty, injustice, famine and military threats are what propelled the 20th Century into adjunct violence on a systematic scale.

Can Obama lead this nation and the world to a place of hope and peace? Only if we allow him to pragmatically dissemble the vestiges of society's failures and move our society to a place of genuine cooperatism. It is with that on the day before his celebratory inauguration when he officially is handed the reigns of power that literally thousands possibly millions individually acted to serve others selflessly. Called the National Day of Service across America and in a previously unknown and unheralded teen shelter at our nation's capital people came together and did something that was not about me. It was a cooperative economics, not captured by any GDP ratio but its value might be bigger than the monthly retail sales report.

It was about change, and I felt it. I felt it as we collected trash on a roadside and city creek side, esthetically just making their community better. I felt it hearing about how 50 strangers showed up at a food bank center to organize there soon to be distributed food stuffs to those 14 Million recently unemployed or under employed persons in our nation. When I saw pictures of persons painting a free medical clinic or washing the windows of a literacy center. This and the countless other projects showed in part the new way.

Change can be seen by the multi-millions cramming into DC to be a small part of this moment of transition from failures of the past and the prospects of a new future. "We are the ones we have been waiting for." It is not a result but merely part of a journey, a process and painful thrust forward. I am glad to be a very small part of it.

Do you recall following the 2004 general elections when the "dark executive" Dick Cheney said: "Elections have consequences." Retrospectively he was warning us that this was part of his sweeping justification that he and his team could do whatever the want. Cheney was promoting something altogether new called the "Unitary President" while also saying he was neither part of the executive or legislative branch where he interpreted the Constitution that he was of some "invisible hand" branch of government. Well the 2006 and 2008 elections have also been quite consequential to the level that the Republican National Committee (RNC) is fully admitting that the GOP has grown too addicted to ideology, places politics before policy, and is bereft of ideas.

This is what happens after elections, political parties, movements and even single issue constituencies access and review what worked and what did not. The RNC Chairman went further than merely admitting that his partisans were too addicted to their message ideology (or better described as their marketing brand) that placed political stance above governing policies that were hollow in ways of addressing its citizenry's real problems, he admitted they were plain out of ideas. Their problem is so deep that they are commencing with a new Think Tank called the "Center for Republican Renewal". Now this is a profound development for it emotionally and intellectually denies that the reality that the former self-described party of ideas actually never possessed a new idea, merely an idealogy that any form of government or regulation that did not enrich their true base was bad and should be defiled and discredited. This reaction by the RNC Chairman, a slick platform to get himself re-elected is no different than what the Detroit Automakers did in remarketing and repackaging the same autos and trucks they made since the 1950's.

The reality few political commentators or activists are willing to admit is that actually America has been ruled by an ever concentrating plutocracy---defined as the rule by the wealthy of course. In these post WW II the modern plutocracy is best described as a corporatocracy where in an objective analysis that the Republican ideology never had anything to do with smaller government or marketplace economics for the record simply doesn't indicate these basic tenants in any way. Their real goals were more about increasing the wealth and power of a very small subset of society which they were quite successful over the last 28 years since the Reagan Revolution was exclaimed to begin.

PJ O'Rourke, one of the true believers in the Republican Ideology or better described as a the GOP Mythology stated recently:

An entire generation has been born, grown up, and had families of its own since Ronald Reagan was elected. And where is the world we promised these children of the Conservative Age? Where is this land of freedom and responsibility, knowledge, opportunity, accomplishment, honor, truth, trust, and one boring hour each week spent in itchy clothes at church, synagogue, or mosque? It lies in ruins at our feet, as well it might, since we ourselves kicked the shining city upon a hill into dust and rubble.

So in review of the corporatocracy where they battled over the financial class things like estate tax, the changes in capital gains and dividend income taxation, investment and trade regulations et cetera it was these many "think tanks" whose jobs it was to provide intellectual and message "cover" for nothing other than class warfare. The "theoretical" marketing or political rhetoric justifications like "trickle down economics", "Laffer curves" or "wealthy entrepreneurship" all were introduced into the marketplace of ideas as something real when it was nothing but another snake oil salesman call to an wanting and ignorant audience. But mythology created Greek-like heros like Alan Greenspan who also was caught completely off guard with the recent stock market crash or in the 21st century venacular, "market meldown".

I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms.

What Greenspan failed to comprehend was that the addiction to unbridled wealth without actual production had warped the entire class of the corporatocracy that there was no accountability or awareness of actual value that the economy served the rest of us like jobs and real income.

So now as the Republican Party, the standard for the corporatocracy is now exposed for what it really is, the mechanism for the wealthy, social bigots, the old Confederacy that was the home of slavetocracy they called the anti-bellum society. Its political voting base are the investor class, the country club set, the corporate and financial executives, those who are its wanna be's, those who vote against their economic class for emotional or social prejudicial reasons---meaning white, often evangelical christian, uneducated, rural, upper class or military and anti democratic. None of the corporatocracy's nostrums was ever been backed up by actual data, just divisive and propaganda. Now it faces a real political dilemma. Its supposed ideology now clearly shown as failing where actual nationalization of the capital markets, the largest industrial market, and realization that deregulation has created a wild west environment to steal other people's money at automated levels. Even the most blind follower of their ideology has come to realize that something is wrong.

Andrew Sullivan the conservative Brit who openly backed Obama made comprehensive conclusion:

The [Republican] crisis is at two levels - the dreadful incompetence and incoherence of the Bush-Cheney administration, which has poisoned the Republican brand for more than one generation, and the emergence of inherent flaws in several strains of conservative thought.

The banking crisis is so close to us and so unresolved it's hard to see it in context, but I fear that Greenspan is right: it's a huge flaw that cannot be explained away by government. The limits of hard power are, in fact, perfectly in line with conservatism's deeper insights into human affairs, with Bush and Cheney acting more as over-reaching utopians than conservative statesmen. And the social conservatism problem has been a function of Christianism: an inability to shape society as it is because their theological doctrine demands adherence to eternal dogma not development of pragmatic policy.

This leaves the Republicans and the corporatocracy with some real problems where they are in a box or rigid high walls. On one side they have hardened their political social base into the mythology of absolute anti-abortion advocacy and institutional homosexual phobia in the name of "old time evangelical religion" fostering a reconstructionist America society and the incompetent economic nationalistic policies propelling the U.S. into a disasterous third-world, two class economy. Both these pathways are political dead ends which is why Colin Powell made this recent observation:

Can we continue to listen to Rush Limbaugh? Is this really the kind of party that we want to be when these kinds of spokespersons seem to appeal to our lesser instincts rather that our better instincts?

So now the Republican powers are left with two choices:

1. Admit that their philosophical basis was simply unadulterated bull shit

OR

2. Blame individuals as an attempt to preserve the "philosophy".

This is why you may have heard the political cries that the Republicans lost because they, meaning McCain, Bush Administration, the Republican Congress and many others forgot their Republican self. It can't be the mythology of the Republican Philosophy but the persons who are now its high priests. One of those high priests, David Brooks wrote:

Now it's just a circular firing squad with everybody attacking each other and no coherent belief system, no leaders. You got half the party waiting for Sarah Palin to come rescue them. The other half waiting for Bobby Jindal, the Louisiana governor, to come rescue them. But no set of beliefs, really a decayed conservative infrastructure. It's just a world of pain.

Obviously the discredited pundits are trying for option 2~~~ what else do they have left, except to admit their worldview is criminal. Finally Rob Dreher from the Weekly Standard came to admit the following:

There is a conservative Establishment -- a political establishment, yes, but also a think-tank establishment and an opinion-leader establishment -- that has become ossified in its thinking and, over time, more interested in policing its heretics than in thinking creatively about conservatism and its application to the challenges facing our nation and our culture at this particular time. That establishment is dying.

So the political philosophy that masked the corporatocracy's actual establishment is dying because the results on the ground are dyer even to them. How will they respond to the continued socio-economic trends; middle class wage stagnation even falling back, generational social immobility, the inevitable rising of health care and education costs which will assault Reagan-Rovolution model of low-tax government supported capitalism? How will they try to sell their old mythological socially-conservative ideas to a moderate middle class that is challenged by the above stratification that rightfully perceives social and economic conservatism as both intolerant and economically ineffective? And finally how do you transform and ever concentrating white party where it benefited from racially-charged issues into a party that can win in an increasingly demographically multiracial America where within the next generation white Americas will be less than 50% of the entire population?

Watching the McCain campaign, you'd barely even know that these problems exist, let alone that conservatives have any idea what to do about them. Conservative commentator Russ Douthat in response to the above dynamic changes in the electorate said:

Watching the McCain campaign, you'd barely even know that these problems exist, let alone that conservatives have any idea what to do about them.

It will be fascinating as the Obama Team deals with the collapsing corporatocracy where it stoled trillions, placed America in a perpetual war over oil and repressed societies and the untended social responsibilies of a middle and lower class in long term stagnation. And through this period a new world order will have to emerge that also addresses the mortal challenges of Global Warming. In this wake we will see the corporatocracy fail and along with it the name of a political party---Republicans though the class will not die but hopefully be made inconsequential the same way the royal class of Europe was made moot following the disasters of World War I.

General Election 2008 El Paso County Analysis

Now it is a time to access what happened and how to go forward. Locally the progressive/liberal El Paso County Movement made some serious advances in the base center of the Red Zone. There was a record participation in the caucus in February, with (and I am generally speaking throughout), 9000 raw votes; so unprecedented was 10 times greater than ever before. The Convention had a turnout of over 1600 delegates and that 90% or greater attendance went to the State Convention even with the total breakdown in trying to manage the registration process.

The General Election we saw that 109,000 votes were cast for a Democratic candidate with percentage approaching 40% at the top of the ticket for the second consecutive GE election cycle. Locally the CD candidate got 37% down 2 clicks from Fawcett’s 39%. The Democrats flipped another legislature seat with HD-17’s with a surprising 52% win, (but in reality that district was gerrymandered to be in play). The thing is in the other two hotly contested State Legislature districts in HD-21 and SD-12 Anna Lord only moved marginally from 41% to 42% in consecutive races and Lee got a more competitive but still disappointing 44% polarity.

Okay I have proven the point that the Democratic base is awoken, we unleashed a grass roots effort that canvassed or phone most of El Paso County even is the heart of the GOP base areas. So what why didn’t we win anymore surprising victories?

Let me say it was not the personalities or the campaign activities that brought about these local disappointments; Bidlack, Lee and Lord did more than admirable job. It is our underlying and unifying message that lacked real relevant traction to move a voter base, namely the Unaffiliated (Independent’s, DINO’s and RINO’s) enough to a Democrat instead of staying to the status quo.

That issue is taxes. It is not the issues of personality, corruption, lobbyists, education, healthcare, social justice, jobs, energy, war….et cetera), it is always taxes and the perspective or worldview people acquaint to taxes. I am in the midst of reading David Sirota’s book, “Uprising” which I suggest for all of you to read now in context of this election and how we can turn upside down El Paso County politics and engineer a stronger progressive/liberal base in CO politics. Taxes is the unifying issue that actually binds the Republican coalition of evangelicals, country club, and war mongers together for they hate paying taxes and they loathe money going to those outside their “favored person status”. It is that simple and it is the corporate (big business interests; International, ex-Mtn Region, ex-CO, ex-El Paso County) have taken full advantage of this manipulating the tax base and basically engineering the middle class small business and not them pay while they pay nothing.

David Sirota’s Montana story of this illustrates the point clearly and so does our experience with TABOR (which he referenced) as what is really the issue that cuts through the electorate and the wooden stake to kill the Right-wing Republican anti-tax movement (actually tax redistribution program to their real constituency) in the heart—like the Dracula metaphor. This issue of fair taxes, tax cuts to the middle class, small business is the stake----nationally and locally. It is connected to all the issues you all ran on personally, be it: corruption, lobbying, education, healthcare, social justice, jobs, energy, war…et cetera for until we bring about a fair tax system and cut across the bogus arguments of “class warfare” or “corporate trickle down benefits” nothing will change here or in CO. It is simple subjugation psychology politics. But it has to be clearly defined and conjoined to the individual best interests of the electorate---namely a coalition of Democrats and the Unaffiliated.

My thoughts are that it is waste of time, resources to think any candidate is going to directly assault the Republican base here by the force of personality, rational thought, and secondary issues without directly assaulting them on taxes. The thing is that the numbers tell the story. Right now El Paso County is 44%(165,000) to 32%(120,000) to 23%(85,000).

Now if Obama got 109,000 and McCain got 160,000 let us break this down in the simplest view. First El Paso had a 73% turnout (they are saying 91% of the active voter rolls which is bogus figure for those who were previously inactive who then voted then this GE became active by post election definition), the simplest notion is that there were 374,000 registered voters on Oct 22^nd and 274,000 votes were cast in the GE (73%).

Now let us break this down:

• If 72% Republicans voted that equates to 120,000
• If 85% of Democrats voted that equates to 72,000
• Leaving 81,000 Unaffiliated at a turnout of 67%

I am certain that with (+/-) deviation when we drill into VAN we will find that the Dem’s over 80% and close to 85% and that the GOP will be close to the mean….or slightly above pushing down the Independent vote in relation.

Now if McCain got 160,000 votes and got 90% from his GOP, than 108,000 from Republicans, he then received 48,000 from Unaffiliated and Dem’s. Our internals had it that he was going to get 8% of the Dem vote in our area.---let us move it 10% or 7000 votes, 45,000 votes from somewhere else or the Unaffiliated. This equates to 55% or 45% of Obama’s vote came from the Unaffiliated here in El Paso County.

You are not going to get the local Independent’s without addressing the tax issue on personal basis. Countywide what does this mean? What if the Dem’s got 63% of the local Independent’s (Unaffiliated) or in essence moving 27,000 votes from the Republican column to the Democrat column? 136,000 to 133,000 or (49.81%)

It appears that from the Ritter and Obama campaign the Dem’s have captured about 45% (+/-) the Unaffiliated vote here in El Paso but they have build a bigger coalition that incorporates another 18-20% of Independents to begin winning any countywide contests. West El Paso County it appears that this might have to be somewhat smaller but not precipitously where Lord has received a tick more than Ritter/Obama and Lee a couple more ticks.

Locally I see two issues intertwined in a way to make this change; taxes and election fraud, but taxes trumps it all. Obama (and Montana) has shown the way with his message of middle class tax fairness (relief). This is the modern wedge issue, pitting the electorate (those who actually cast a vote) and the corporate class, which do not but have the resources to lobby the tax laws.

Anna Lord discovered Gardner’s weakness being a lobbyist and an elected official but did not use it. I am certain State Senator Keith King with is past leadership is up to his eyeballs with the same position. They will pit the trickle down theory that corporate tax relief will create jobs but that is bull$#!t and everyone knows that. Jobs are created with a live economy for business hire because they need a workforce to make money, not because they not paying taxes. Not paying taxes means greater dividends for the investor class and bonuses for the corporate execs---which is also part of the investor class with the stock options compensation. This is not about small business either it is about big business.

So this is how simple things are. Grass roots politics will change the numbers only so far. But moving the numbers where progressives/liberals can actually win in El Paso County outside some gerrymandered concentrations like HD17, 18 and SD-11 areas. This is about capturing 63% of Unaffiliated voters. Don’t fool yourself that there is a cache of RINO’s (Republican In Name Only) out there, it might be 10% but is only 16,000 votes and basically those individuals are really Independent-minded voters registered to participate in the primaries. Even if there were 16,000 RINO’s that adds up to just 100,000 registered voters with the current Democratic base and still below the Unaffiliated (120,000) or Republicans (150,000) even if you take away the RINO’s.

Therefore going forward we need to find City Council or future legislature and County candidates who will take this tax fairness issue and get behind it with all our grass roots capabilities and change the landscape from this direction. Remember corporate citizens cannot vote yet.

1st Post Election Obama Volunteer Group Meeting a BIG SUCCESS!

Last night at the Pikes Peak Main Library, Penrose in downtown Colorado Springs, Colorado in the Carnegie Reading Room about 76 persons attended what appears to be the first official local post election Obama Organization Meeting in the U.S. I was told this about an hour before its start by Martha Moore, political correspondent for the USA Today Newspaper when she interviewed me on background for an upcoming article. Whether that is so or not we do know that in Colorado El Paso County Obama political activists are the first to organize no different than last year on August 6th precisely the same number of people showed up from a call by Mike Maday to form the orginal local campaign political organization. It was the first organization that Gabe Cohen, the then just appointed Colorado Field Director met with and from there we participated in nominating and now electing Barack Obama to the Presidency.

Here is an accounting of the meeting. First in attendance we had about a dozen of the Staging Location Directors from the GOTV efforts in the Obama Campaign. We also had as many Obama Team Coordinators, seven of the original Caucus/Convention Obama Volunteers leaders, (Mike Maday, Gary Gabrielson, Don Nelson, Jason DeGroot, Andy Nelson, Carol Duster, Renee Hartslief and myself), three former local candidates, (Jay Fawcett, Hal Bidlack and Pete Lee), the publisher of the Colorado Independent, John Weiss, (reporting on the event was Ralph Routon the editor of the Independent), local political consultants, Sally Davis, Jane Ard-Smith and (Renee), El Paso County Democratic Party Vice-Chair, Jay Ferguson, recognized super Obama canvasser Jon Wuerth, two former local Obama staffers, Robert Andrews and Dave Frum just to name a few I recognized. I will also say that I received at least twenty other emails of persons who had personal schedule conflicts and wanted to attend but were unable.

The primary outcome of the meeting was that we voted unanimously to formerly organize a group that would be a separate grass roots organization to be a political resource for the Obama Presidency in El Paso County and seek to partner or link with both the local Democratic Party and other issue groups or constinuencies that align with the Obama Platforms and Movement. The other outcome was that we appointed eight individuals to an Ad hoc Organizational Development Committee to meet and formulate an organizational plan and framework and report back to the group. Those individuals are: Robert Andrews, Pat Hansen, Rick Ketcham, Pete Lee, Katherine Mack, Mike Maday, Don Nelson, Chris Orsborne, and myself.

I opened the meeting and wanted to highlight the political accomplishments the Obama Campaign and its grass roots volunteers to date:

• Record Caucus turnout and Obama vote 69%
• General Election Results: McCain 155,000 <6,000> Obama 104,000 +27,000 over 2004
  
• Voter Registration #'s 16,000 new Democrats, 12,400 Unaffiliated's, 12,000 Republicans
• FiveThirtyEight.com's analysis: 51% CO poll voters contacted by an Obama volunteer while 34% were contacted by a McCain volunteer, 17% gap resulted 3.4-5.1% increase in Obama vote.

Then I introduced Don Nelson who read a passionate speech about the connection between Clinton's failed progressive movement in Health Care Reform and the lack of a grass roots organization to counter the lobbyists in Congress and why a separate grass roots group was essential for the Obama Presidency.

Mike Maday got up and discussed his brief communication with Jon Carson the recent National Field Director of the Obama campaign and the mentioning that a new person would be in contact with him regarding their thoughts. He then introduced Kathy Spicer wh is now with an Ad Hoc Committee investigating polling place and MIB irrregularities in El Paso County. This ilicited many comments from the group about apparent voter problems.

Jay Ferguson then got up and presented the case that moving much of the IObama activism and spirit of change and growth into the El Paso County Democratic Party is critical. He passed out about 25 invitations to next Saturday's Meeting at Hillside Community Center to be led by John Morris, the Party Chair.

I then moved the meeting to an open discussion as to what were their ideas of what to do an what the organization should be, whom or what it serves. We had many ideas expressed, all formitable. There was some concensus that confirmed our theme and objective. That we should form as a separate but aligned group. Our purpose was to serve the President's Platform Agenda of Change and develop or maintain the capability of grass roots communication and organization. That maintaining the team and house district framework was desirable. One extraordinary idea was to make certain whatever local issue we focus on it should be a winner so that we develop credibility and genuine power to change things. Also we agreed to merge the contact networks we have from the HD teams into a large communication network. That we want to spread this grass roots movement to other counties in Colorado and send representatives to them and coordinate efforts.

We then nominated a good sample of leaders who will meet and try to put in order the ideas and spirit for the next meeting. In the meantime everyone at the meeting was to reach out to their network and inform and invite them to the next meeting. If I missed something please write me and I will publish it.

My final take: After the meeting a few of us met at the Phantom Canyon Brewry to discuss some things. Both Jay Ferguson and I have been involved in a spirited and capable grass roots organization that once the contest was over attempted to maintain itself to varying success and degree. In Jay's case it was Mike Miles Senatorial Nomination run where a group in Douglas and Jefferson Counties a strong grass roots group formed outside the local Democratic Party as a 501C educational group. Ultimately they developed such powerful leadership that many found their way into the local county parties, took over and now have been electing local candidates in once Republican only areas.

In my case I was part of coalition of almost 80 groups fighting the building of a coal-fired electric power plant by a private utility in Wisconsin. Our coalition had big corporate players and small environmental and health activists. When the corrupted approval process ended our grass roots effort turned to trying to create a publicly owned utility district in our city, (like Colorado Springs Utilities). Without some early successes the post organization died a slow death.

Organizing something like this is not easy. But the benefits could be enormous. On one hand it offers a vehicle for a voice by those who feel they don't have a voice or their voice will not be heard is important. Many of the Obama network were Independents, either registered or in spirit and not inclined to enbroil themselves in party politics. Others are members of issues or groups outside the party framework but aligned with the Obama Platform. And as Don elequently pointed out that having an outside but affliated group (not unlike the DFA or Move On, offers the ability to communicate to elected officials in mass but outside the party, something both Clinton and Carter presidencies lacked. On the other hand it allows those who become activists the ability to join in the party enmasse with other Obama minded activists to reform and grow our local party. It is a place where party recruitment and development can take place on the outside. This is not a threat to the local party except to say that new blood and knowledge of how to actually organize will cause change to the old guard.

But it will take work and commitment. The other item of most importance is what a wise person brought forward, an early win and credibility. In my opinion the most obvious item to explore is the vote fraud, suppression and manipulation that is apparent in El Paso County. The witness by Jay Ferguson on the local Elections Board illustrates greatly what most of the public does not know, Balink is wholly untrustworthy. That previous to his administration El Paso had the state's lowest amount of election incidents and six years in his administration now the highest amount of incidents. This by itself is an outcome that springs a red flag of suspicion. Is it incompetence, lack of resources or outright corruption?

The thing is that there are 120,000 Independents registered in El Paso County who would be more inclined to align and partner with the Democrats if it is shown and worked that their vote is as much in jeopardy for manipulation as the 86,00o registered Democrats. This makes the inherent numbers of 206,000 to 165,000 (registered Republicans), to provide fair and clean elections. This even could cut into the Republican base as a win-win-win and something of a winning issue that could also bring about a coalition with other issue groups. Ultimately it leads to the 2010 County Clerk's election where Balink is term limited and it being an open seat.

All told the meeting was a great success and I will be announcing both the ad hoc committee meeting and next meeting shortly.

What the impact of Obama's Volunteer Ground Game quantified!

Many of you became politico's for the first time. The role of volunteer to a political campaign comes in many flavors, helping out in the field offices, donating food or hosting house parties, but the most important is making direct contact with voters who are strangers. Unlike TV or radio commercials or speaking events, contact with strangers offers persuasion impact on far more levels emotionally and intellectually than a virtual impact of a media message that can be countered buy the opposition's media message. When one campaign overwhelms the ground with volunteers the opposition cannot counter in kind and the imprint can be extraordinary.

FiveThirtyEight.com has done some enlightening post election analysis attempting quantifying the effect of Obama's volunteer ground game where in exit polls in battleground states they asked the question: "whether the voter had been contacted by the Obama and McCain campaigns personally about getting out to vote?"

The Obama campaign had a superior contact rate in 11 of the 12 battlegrounds; the only exception was West Virginia. Wisconsin was also relatively close, perhaps because Obama redirected its legion number of Illinois-based volunteers from Wisconsin to Indiana a couple of weeks in advance of the election.

The largest gaps, however, were in Indiana and out west in Colorado and Nevada, all places where Obama outperformed his polls on election day.

% of Voters Reporting Direct Contact from Campaigns

State  Obama   McCain   Gap

CO     51%     34%      17%
NV     50%     29%      21%
IN     37%     22%      15%
VA     50%     38%      12%
PA     50%     39%      11%
IA     41%     30%      11%
FL     29%     20%       9%
NC     34%     26%       8%
MO     44%     37%       7%
OH     43%     36%       7%
WI     42%     39%       3%
WV     29%     31%      -2%

They continued the analysis by saying:
Roughly speaking, each marginal 10-point advantage in contact
rate translated into a marginal 3-point gain in the popular vote
in that state. So the rule of thumb that a "good" ground game may be worth
additional 2-3 points above and beyond what is reflected in the
polls appears to hold; a great ground game may be worth somewhat
more than that.
The implications are profound going forward especially with the
coalition of voters who in the past were less inclined to vote
where a strong volunteer base ground game will be essential to
prevail inupcoming elections. Outside of this those of you who
took part in this historical election take heart you were the
difference when it came to votes. Obama won in Colorado 53.5% to
45% and going into the final weekend the polls indicated in Real
Clear Politics average that the spread was 5.0% but the final
results were 8.5%. Take a look at the final polls the weekend
prior to the election:

• Fox/Rasmussen had it Obama +4% (51%-47%)
• Denver Post/Mason Dixon had it Obama +5% (49%-44%)
• Marist had it Obama +6% (51%-45%)
  
• ARG had it closer with Obama +7% (52%-45%)

The week previous

• PPP was a little strong at Obama +10% (54%-44%)
• Politico/Adv was dead on a week previous +8% (53%-45%)
• CNN/TIME also was dead on +8% (53%-45%)
  

Even more striking is that two of the four final polling had McCain's vote percentage dead on, ARG was a point below while the hopeful Fox/Rasmussen gave McCain two points while sliding Obama by 2.5% points. None of them had Obama performing above 53% except when you go back a week prior to the election.

Back to the ratio FiveThirtyEight ratio states that for every 10% advantage equates to 2-3% increase in vote over the polling or in case of Colorado, seventeen percent contact gap translated in a 3.4 to 5.1% increase in the vote over the polling. Taking the RCP average of 5.0% and adding 3.4% equates to 8.4%. Local knowledge of Colorado being a traditional Republican/convervative leaning electorate where Colorado College professors have held an inherent 2% advantage for any Republican candidate this all falls in the deviation of 3.4 to 5.1%.

Where to go from here

It has been six days since Election Day and we have all had some time to think and reflect on its implications. Senator Barack Obama's amazing Presidential victory is potentially one of the four transformative elections in our nation's history, naturally only time and historians will determine that. My discusions with Political Scientists almost all conclude that Obama could be as important as Jefferson's, Lincoln's and Franklin Roosevelt's Administration in fundamentally changing America.

Many of you participated quite actively in some manner in this election cycle far outside of the comfort zone of being a casual spectatorand possibly voting. Of all the post election news pieces may I suggest you watch CBS's 60 Minutes episode produced just a few hours after Obama's victory speech in Grant Park, Chicago in the wee-early morning hours of November 5th. There Steve Kroft interviewed the four senior campaign leaders in a disarming revealing manner. CBS reported:

...They did it by recruiting and vesting millions of volunteers in the outcome, by raising more money than any campaign in history, and by largely ignoring that their candidate happed to be a black man....

The only person missing from the brain trust was the candidate himself. How big a role did he play in this campaign?

"Well, no one had a bigger role, you know. The great thing about our campaign was we didn't have a lotta discussion about what our message was or what he wanted to do," Plouffe said. "From the beginning, he knew exactly what he wanted to say. And it's one of the reasons we were successful. A lotta campaigns will spend hours every day wondering about how to change their message. And he was pretty clear about what he wanted to say, where he wanted to take the country, and either people would accept it or they wouldn't."

Axelrod recalled, "When we started the campaign, we met around a table like this. And there was just a handful of us. You know, we started with nothing. And Barack said to us, 'I want this to be a grassroots campaign. I wanna reinvigorate our democracy. First of all I think that’s the only way we can win and secondly I want to rekindle some idealism that together we can get things done in this country,"

Now where do we( in El Paso County) go from here? Well the mission seems obvious, to carry with the reinvigorating our democracy, right here in Colorado Springs!

Unlike any campaign beforehand Obama's left a grass roots organization ready to go its structure and framework to work off of. There were 26 Staging Location Directors who personally managed the county's GOTV Volunteer Field Offices. It was those organizations that recruited, trained and even deployed those thousands of volunteers on the ground. Within those organizations there are experienced canvass team captains, phone bank directors and volunteer coordinators not to mention comfort teams who directed many hundreds of volunteers in grass roots campaign activities. This cannot simply peculate down into the soil and simply disapear. So those of you who remain motivated and committed we can make changes in Colorado Springs for we have a network. But for this to work you must get involved.

First, I have called a general organizational meeting for November 18th at 7:00 PM at the Main Library, (Penrose) in downtown Colorado Springs, (25 N. Cascade) in the Carnegie Reading Room to discuss and attempt to begin formulating a consensus about how to proceed from this point. I have developed a draft agenda which I will include below. (If you think it needs amending please email me.)

Now this is not meant as a competing agenda with John Morris's (the El Paso Democratic County Chair), and his open forum scheduled for the following Saturday, November 22nd at the Hillside Center (10 AM), that said I am not being presumptive.

The local Obama network which emerged here was primarily accomplished from persons outside the El Paso County Democratic Party framework, where many volunteers and supporters were Independents and Republicans, even though the majority of its activists are Democratic. Going back even to the Caucus days, most of the Obama Precinct Captains and supporters were not regular party Democratic members, although a number of us like, Mike Maday, Kathy McQuinllan or myself were.

So there are two big questions we need to address next Tuesday evening.

1. Do we remain an identifiable and separate group outside the local Democratic Party?
2. If yes, under what kind of structure and purpose?
   

From that point I think things will emerge as we forge a vision. If we become a separate group or constituency, than individuals can and should be encouraged to join into the El Paso Democratic Party leadership and basically follow Obama's call to reinvigorate our local democracy with their idealism and willingness to work together in getting new things done. Other members who aren't compeled to join the Party should be encouraged to join other progressive grass roots groups where they too can reinvigorate those organizations. Creating a local Obama constituency can bring about real change even here in Colorado Springs.

Nate Hundt, the Obama Field Director wrote to me after the election:

Bob:

My advice would be to keep the teams in place....

Privately I have been told that the Obama network I received a link from the head of the Group Administrators, Chris Hughes regarding the future of MyBO:

Over the past 21 months, millions of individuals have used My.BarackObama to organize their local communities on behalf of Barack Obama. The scale and size of this community and its work is unprecedented. Individuals in all 50 states have created more than 35,000 local organizing groups, hosted over 200,000 events, and made millions upon millions of calls to neighbors about this campaign. There can be no question that these local, grassroots organizations played a critical role in Tuesday's victory.

What has made My.BarackObama unique hasn't been the technology itself, but the people who used the online tools to coordinate offline action. My.BarackObama has always been focused on using online tools to make real-world connections between people who are hungry to change our politics in this country.

And the site isn't going anywhere. The online tools in My.BarackObama will live on. Barack Obama supporters will continue to use the tools to collaborate and interact. Our victory on Tuesday night has opened the door to change, but it's up to all of us to seize this opportunity to bring it about.

In the coming days and weeks, there will be a great deal more information about where this community will head. For the moment, let's celebrate this victory and know that the community we've built together is just the beginning.

Privately, I have been told by persons in the campaign that they are looking for the Obama Network to be a political asset for major policy initiatives going forward. They have over 10 million email addresses but more importantly they a person-to-person network that if maintained even as a skeleton of its once final campaign self would allow Obama to go around the media and press and reach directly to his political base when needed.

Draft agenda for Tuesday November 18th for a post election Obama Organizational Meeting.

A) Do we continue to stay organized?

1) Under a separate framework and/or identifiable group(s)?

a) Do we keep the current HD/Team framework as suggested by Nate
b) Do we form a different framework or structure?
c) do we disband?

2) If we stay together do we fold into the El Paso County Dem Party?

a) as a separate constituency(s) or group(s)?
b) or integrated individually not as a group?

B) What would be its purpose and vision?

1) As a group or constituency what purpose will we serve?

a) Locally?
b) Statewide
c) Obama Presidency?

2) As a group or constituency what is our vision

a) Change means what locally?
b) Change means what politically
c) Change means what in the Democratic Party?

C) What are the political opportunities and timing?

1) El Paso County Democratic Party

a) Precinct Co-chair vacancies and inactive posts
b) Party leadership; executive council
c) Committee structure

2) Statewide Democratic Party

a) Committee's
b) Party Executive Council
c) Candidate organizations:

• Salazar reelection 2010
• Ritter reelection 2010
• Kennedy reelection 2010
• Attorney General 2010
  

3) Local Candidates

a) City Council races, 4 spots open in April 2009
b) County Commissioner County and City Volunteer Boards
c) County Clerk, Treasurer, Coroner, Sheriff (2010)
d) HD 18, 2018 plus HD 15, 16, 19, 20, 21, Senate 9 (2010)
e) Congressional Candidate 2010

4) Activism and/or NGO's

Party on....a summary of the last week!

I still cannot ably describe my feelings from Tuesday night. My wife cried on my shoulder while hugging me as Obama gave his victory speech. Beforehand the 9 PM declaration where the election was about to be "called" by all the major networks, I told my son soon that Obama election as the 44th President of the U.S., that this was bigger than the "Man on the Moon". He replied that Michael Beschloss, the famed and esteemed presidential scholar had just made a similar comment on TV. Naturally we had not heard that through the din of the growing celebration at the Antler Hilton as Beschloss also was looking at this election in the same light as the big four: 1800 (Thomas Jefferson), 1860 (Abraham Lincoln), 1932 (Franklin Roosevelt) and 1980 (Ronald Reagan). Actually I think Reagan's election is more comparable to 1832 (Andrew Jackson) which was change in the period but not one that fundamentally changed America. Only time will tell if Obama is up to the task as Jefferson, Lincoln and Roosevelt.

Looking back, Thomas Jefferson politically changed America by expanding Democracy outside the Federalist concentrations in New York and Boston into rural America. Plus his Administration commenced the peaceful transfer of power never before seen in World History from one political power group to another. And finally he expanded by double the geography of the U.S. with the purchase of the Louisana Territory. Lincoln of course saved the Union during the Civil War, freed the slaves and began Reconstruction. FDR changed America by saving it from Fascism and Communism while bringing about american socialism, won WW II which placed America as an unmatched International world super power. Reagan's impact is more like Jackson's, big but not fundamental. I guess the order of magnitude is whether one's effigy is on our currency, I don't see any Reagan coins or images on any dollar bills. But there is the penny, the nickel, the dime and of course the quarter, plus of course the Kennedy half dollar. Jackson does have the twenty dollar bill, Lincoln again the $5.00 bill, (I know there was an atttempt to put Reagan on the $10.00 bill and replace Hamilton but that died a quiet death---funny thing that Iran-Contra item.)

Back to Tuesday night. I was invited to join over a thousand El Paso County Democratic Party members, supporters, revelers, party goers and basically the band wagon in experiencing Senator Barack Obama's Presidential Election victory at Colorado Springs Antler's Hilton Hotel Grand Ballroom. How does one properly express the hundreds of hugs and handshakes from many a fellow volunteer, activist, Democratic Party member or merely Independent/Republican supporter, many of which came up to me personally to congratulate me and other Obama volunteer leaders "on Obama's campaign victory? But then again, even Obama acknowledged this was not his victory but "the people's" victory----does that sound too socialistic? Well maybe to a conservative who has no conscience (meaning closet Fascist), or elitist Republican-Reptile who silently thinks America has nobles and peasants.

Those I saw and hugged were Jason DeGroot, Mike Maday, Lynn Young, Barb & Vinai Thummapolly, Renee Hartslief, Kathy McQuillan, Andy Nelson, Jay Ferguson and Cheryse Exline among many others including the Obama staff local candidates.

First, let me begin to discuss some revelations or items relating to political trends in El Paso County and the State of Colorado that have been learned from this election cycle and the final phase of the Obama campaign.

• First there is a now a strident, albeit still minority progressive movement in Colorado Springs that is a real local political force.
  

• On one hand it will take a lot more effort and continued demographic/political changes for this not to be still an almost futile political effort.
  
• But the Republican conservatives (actually the reactionary retrogressive right wing movement) is in a full retreat in Colorado, which in many ways because what is happening here in Colorado Springs.
  
• 2008 is the second election cycle in a row that the headliner garnished more than 39.6% followed closely by the other Federal candidates, this year Udall and Hal Bidlack who scored above 38%.
• That all said there is some strange numbers that don't make sense.
  

A casual observer might think that is still an overwhelming victory for the Republicans, (and it is) but not like years past when Republicans dropped 66% or almost 70% for their statewide candidates from El Paso County. Now remember Boulder and Denver Counties gave 74% and 75% to the Obama this year, where also Udall scored 73%, in both those counties. It used to be that El Paso and Denver Counties balanced each other out, but now that El Paso is contributing less than 60% to the cause the tipping point is going Democratic.

That is the 40,000 foot view so what is the detail? Over the final weekend the Obama campaign put well over 1000 volunteers on the ground throughout area. One local positive effect of all this effort can be seen in Dennis Apuan's surprising victory in House District 17 where he won a 380 vote victory. El Paso County, the home of the politically active Focus on the Family, birthplace of the Libertarian Movement and considered by most the 16th most conservative district in the U.S. now has three Democratic State Legislators; Merrifield HD-18, Apuan HD-17 and State Senator John Morse SD-11. Not reported is the fact that Ft. Carson's precinct in the base voted Obama by two votes. Think about that.

All this cannot be ignore or scoffed off. I only have personal inside knowledge of House District 21, (basically areas in Western Colorado Springs/El Paso County, without Old Colorado City and Manitou Springs), basically described as neighborhoods known as Mountain Shadows, Garden of the Gods, Mesa Hills, The Broadmoor, Skyway and outside of Fort Carson/Mt Cheyenne. This region is described as mostly white, college educated, professional middle class to affluent-investor class demographics with some areas of even above affluence middle class like Broadmoor, Kissing Camels and Cedar Heights. Our neighborhod team area of primary focus was the northern half of House District 21, we called it HD 21 Staging Location Teams 1&3. Led by Mike Maday, the former El Paso County Volunteer Coordinator for the Obama campaign for the caucus and county delegation chairman we put together what others described as one of the best neighborhood teams in the county. Similar descriptions were made about the team working exclusively in the southend of House District 21, known as Team Queso (team 2) where they worked the Skyway and Broadmoor neighborhoods.

To understand House District 21 one needs to have knowledge of the registered political landscape. 49% of the electorate is registered Republican, 29% are registered Independents and only 22% are registered Democrats. Now this is not a uniform distribution by precinct where my precinct (PCT 147) which borders HD-18 and an elected Democratic State Legislator (the border being one street to my south), has 27.75% Democrats, 35% Independents and 37.25% Republicans. Going north from our four boarding precincts the distribution goes deceivingly more Republican. Naturally this was a gerrymandered district for Keith King who was once one of the Republican House Leaders in 2000, now elected as a State Senator in a curious race with Pete Lee, (more on that on a later post). Our Team originally was assigned 10 precincts, called Pleasant Valley, Mesa Hills and Holland Park, quickly grew to 13 involving the south Rockrimmon areas and then eventually merging with the Mountain Shadows and Ute Pass groups to a coverage of 21 precincts.

As autumn turned into October the campaign went into the phase known as Get Out The Vote (GOTV). Our HD teams now fully organized began to rapidly increase recruiting volunteers to make the final pushes in phone banking and canvassing seeking out voters. Ultimately our target universe was roughly 12,000 voters, roughly one-third of the total 36,000 electorate of HD-21 and primarily all Democrats and most Unaffiliated (Independents) voters and some targeted Republicans who previously were identified as supporters of Obama. This contact universe would carry through to the final four days to Tuesday, November 4th, election day. Because of the month long MIB voting, two week long early poll voting and Tuesday voting GOTV strategies are rapidly evolving. MIB status voter now make up 39% of the entire electorate Of that number 43% are now registered Democrats up from 20% this year, while 32% are Independents with 42% are Republicans.

Now here is an interesting tidbit coming out of the cumulative result, Anna Lord; the Democratic candidate for State Legislator who received 57.7% of her votes from MIB cast before election day all told from early voting got 72.8% of her entire vote when you include early poll voting. Her 12,411 votes represents over 4487 votes over the entire Democratic registration or more than one-third of her vote came from Independents and Republican crossovers. Detail by precinct will not be available until November 22nd so we are just extrapolating but Anna Lord did receive 42% of the vote two percent above Obama's El Paso wide vote. Though something is strange that her vote only increased by one-half percent.

What is self evident is the turnout by MIB and Early Vote versus Tuesday day of the election voting. In El Paso County there were 374,399 registered voters but only 265,828 cast votes (71%). Comparably speaking in 2004, 68.60% voted (242,888 out of 354, 059) and in 2000, 59.40% voted (201,662 cast out of 339,445) so turnout was higher and continues to grow.

MIB's represented 137, 766 out of the 265, 828 cast or 51.8% of the entire vote! Merge that with early voters and it represents 65.76% of the entire vote cast did so before Tuesday. Meaning only 89,284 voted on election day Tuesday---which meant there were no long lines a sfeared where also only 44.5% of the remaining electorate came out to vote. Comparing to 2004, 61,303 voted MIB (25.23%) and 37,012 voted early totaling 38.58% voting before Tuesday November 2nd. Thus the trend is that MIB participation has doubled and therefore almost doubling the early turnout but it appears that still a significant number are not voting.

The implications are enormous for a campaign strategy here in Colorado Springs and Colorado in general. Decisions and votes cast are made far earlier than the final weekend as many assume and therefore, like this year where final weekend theyGOTV activity is feverish and en are fighting for an ever smaller pool of remaining voters, many of which are not still not participating. With more MIB participation however the overall turnout continues to grow from numbers in the 70's, 80's and '90's. Thus going forward I am predicting that GOTV efforts will begin far earlier in earnest, even as long as a month or more beforehand while parallel campaign persuasion and identification activities will continue on more targeted basis until the final week of the election cycle.

Now information from the front lines, ground game insights and weird stories. At our staging location, which essentially functioned as a satellite 5-day campaign office for the northend of House District 21's, and its twenty-one precincts where we had over 150 volunteers identified for direct campaign contact activities and poll watching. Over 80 persons signed up to make phone calls in what turned out to be 10 3-hour full time shifts over Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. The canvass team had about 60 or so volunteers signed up for 11 shifts, plus we had about ten poll watchers, runners. Then there were the coordinating leaders; Mike Maday, John Atkinson, Julie Feuerback & Carol Duster as comfort captains and of course myself, as the Phone Bank Director. Our objectives were to contact up to 6,000 or more targeted voters who were identified as MIB voters who had not voted as of yet or Tuesday poll voters.

We reached an estimated 1253 persons by phone in a targeted universe of 3000, many more than once. The canvass team made great number of contacts as well over the weekend, but on weekdays the contacts went down greatly. Also we left message or left door hangers on all doors and messages on all working phones non contacted phones. The impact was mixed of course with Tuesday's turnout being 44.5% city wide. It is my estimation the biggest impact was chasing down the remaining MIB voters who had a surprising large number of problems.

On Saturday we found 13 persons whom we talked to (out of about 320 that day) who had requested a MIB and not receive one. One was Christine who was physically disabled and the other was Larry where he and his wife lived in Canada and where his wife had received hers and he not. Both were profiled on KOAA TV Sunday night and Monday morning. The following day, Sunday we found another 15 or so who had similar problems with MIB delivery, followed by about ten more on Monday bringing us to over 50 by the end of Tuesday's last phone canvass. This was roughly 50 out of 500 those who had MIB outstanding in the 21 precincts we covered or 10% of that universe.

We found many of these persons like Larry unable to make amends since the only remedy would be for individuals to go personally to the Clerk's office on Monday or Tuesday and get a replacement ballot. One person we talked to was in London, another at Columbia University. Many others were closer to Colorado Springs like Greeley or Fort Collins but still unable to make it down here in time!

The other problem we found was the erroneous database item of MIB requested (but not mailed) MIB's by the County Clerk's office. Again we started finding this problem on Saturday where we found another 50 or so by Tuesday who had this designation in the database, all coincidentally with a date of request of 9/27/2008. Confirming their status with the Secretary of State's online databaseoffice we found that they were registered to vote at their Tuesday polling place. This caused communication confusion to say the least, but also begged the next question: Why were they designated as MIB requested, and why all on that date?

Then we began discover another layer of suspicious data entry errors in our contact universe. Voter's purged recently where many had their birth dates strangely recorded as 01/01/YEAR. We started to find these persons from the final contact universe that we were working on Tuesday as they were voters out there that had not voted by Noon and identified as Obama supporters. In our database each had volunteered for the campaign as a canvasser or phone banker at one time or another, and high ranking supporter. These particular persons all had registered this year and yet they were removed from the voters roles in the last couple of weeks. Well naturally if their birth date didn't line up with a federal database that would make them suspect. But in our contacting we found the following situation:

One young voter had registered in May and had requested a MIB where it was mailed to her on October 22nd. She told her father that she had mailed it back in but in checking the Secretary of State's database it had not been received as of the final weekend. When we looked into the database we found that the Clerk's office had 01/01/YEAR as her birth date and of course that was erroneous. How did her birth date change? Well that is the data entry responsibility of the Clerk's office. But the strange thing is that her purging had to have happened between October 22nd and October 31st when the Secretary of State was ordered by the Federal Judge to stop. There was nothing she could do for we were talking to her father on Tuesday November 4th---because her MIB was still not in.

This is why there is a 90-day stay for any systemic purging of voter records for mistakes or manipulation by those in control of the databases cannot be corrected in time and advantage those in power of the lists. This is why there is a famous saying; "it is not how many votes it is how many votes are counted".

Of course this is not just the strange things that went on in El Paso County. Over the weekend in what was a contested local area that Dennis Apuan won, phone calls were made to Democratic and Obama campaign poll watchers from a mysterious telephoner saying they were not needed and not to show up to a meeting getting their credentials on Monday. Naturally this was erroneous and the campaigns had to scramble to recontact those but to some it was too late. How did anyone get those lists? All poll watchers are deputized and credentialed through their party or campaign and then submitted to the County Clerk's office who has the record. Naturally the lists came from either inside the campaigns or from the Clerk's office.

But that was not enough. Jason DeGroot told me briefly that the Security Widefield office was also subject to fire alarm calls and inspection officers for code violations among other disruptions like the electricity being shut off. This all in the final days! There is another report that I am tracking down that poll watchers came to another staging location but were then identified as Republican operatives where they quickly left as Democratic volunteers showed up. This of course on top of the lies sent via email, stated on TV and even news shows.

Now some conclusion a few days after the 4-day sprint to the finish line. Things have changed on the ground in El Paso County and in Colorado. Colorado now has a Democratic Governor, Lt Governor, Treasurer and soon to be Secretary of State for Coffman was elected as the other Republican Congressman from Colorado taking over Tancredo's seat in JeffCo. The Governor now gets to appoint a replacement and it is rumored to be former Secretary of State Candidate Gordan. At least for 2010 the shenanigans the Republicans have employed purging the voter databases will be curtailed.

But think about it in three election cycles Colorado has gone from a Republican Governor, two Republican US Senators and four of the seven Congresspersons, where now both US Senator's are Democratic, 5 out of seven are Democratic and only the Attorney General is Republican in the State Executive Branch. Both legislative houses are now Democratic majority and finally Colorado swung blue in voting for Obama. In this wake, Lynn Musgrave the anti abortionist was soundly defeated in what was a McCain leaning area of the state, and an openly Gay candidate Polis won handily in Boulder's based Congressional District-2.

In El Paso County the Democratic vote is now roughly 40% up from 32-33% in 2004 and 31% in 2000 and 35% in 1996. In Colorado Springs we have unearthed over 1000 active volunteers and probably created over 50 progressive activists. We have also begun to get a picture on Balink's voting corruption. Furthermore this puts a premium on getting more than 43% in MIB to where we need to move that number up to almost two-thirds. With that and early voting trends we then would have almost 90% in the house before election Tuesday. The final weekend we have to rethink the strategies for a 45% turnout on this kind of high turnout election cycle is not working. Anna Lord in HD-21 (it had a 81.2% turnout), and thus needed a 94% turnout where she would have had to get all the additional 4600 votes.

Overall though I think we need to make certain we keep HD-18 and HD-17 and State Senate D-11 in 2010 and then more fairly reapportion the boundaries in El Paso County. This might help in getting more representative reflection in the state legislative districts. That the Democratic Party is now on the hot seat for its elected officials must not do what the Rove oriented Republicans did over the last decade. It must prove itself to be practical and fair and earn the Independent vote each day.

For us in Colorado Springs we have to take the energy and knowledge and begin working on the El Paso County Democratic Party (AKA Peak Dems) as a viable and rich minority political movement. The Obama campaign activists and participates must organize and integrate into the party and both reform it, reformulate it and infuse it with capability, energy and purpose. Thus I am beginning the call to have a post election meeting before John Morris's meeting at the end of the month. In this I am looking to do what the Obama campaign taught us---organize a grass roots group---the one thing is we have formualate a consensus and vision and then take that to the regular Democratic Meeting. Since Mike Maday and I are on the Precinct Development Committee we can start by nominating certain individuals for open Precinct Co-Chair seats before the Febuary Organization Meeting that will elect officers for the next four years in the organization. This will include not only the Executive Officers of Chair, Vice-chair, 2nd Vice Chair, Secretary and Treasurer, but also Senate District Chairs and House District Chairs which all are on the Executive Committee. Also Committee Chairs will be chosen.

To move this grass roots movement forward progressively people will have to stay involved. Personally I am thinking we have to evaluate Precinct Co-Chairs as to whether they are there in name only. In active co-chairs need to be removed and active chairs installed. Decentralizing and organizing like the campaign did is also a must where each Senate and House District should be organizing while the Executive Committee should be strategic and not tactical. This way we can continue to turn and identify progressives in the neighborhoods and also continue to move more voters to MIB status.

We have a lot to do. Our community governments are broke. They are becoming dysfunctional and like McCain out of touch and out of reality. Many Republicans I have talked to blame the Democratic Party for allowing the right wing wingnuts to have taken over, those like Keith King, Bob Gardner and Doug Bruce. That negative high water mark was Christen in the District 11 School Board which prompted our recall effort, but those nuts are still here.

If you are interested email me. Party on....

One week to go where most Americans will vote their future. In Colorado out of an estimated 4 Million voters who are besieged with the knowledge that our State is in play and could be a "decider", up to 1.6 Million votes are estimated to be cast before Tuesday morning. That is 40% of the vote and a dynamic that most of the media/press does not really have what it could mean. Well in one obvious thought is with each passing day a late October Surprise will have a corresponding lessening potential impact on the outcome. Another thought is that traditional voter manipulation and corruption tactics are reduced where causing long lines due to nefarious partisan efforts like running out of ballots or not having enough resources in targeted precincts have less impact.

Mail In Ballots are the new rage, where in El Paso County an estimated 150,000 or more will be distributed, (145,000 by October 21st). The Democratic Party increased their requests by 100% moving up to almost 43% of their base. The Republican Party increased their request from 38% to 42% county wide, while Unaffiliated's moved up to 30% from the low 20's. El Paso County now has 380,000 registered voters where the GOP hold 43% (down almost 2 percentage points), while Unaffiliated's 31.5% of the registered electorate and the Democratic Party possessing 22.5%. Subtly the Democrats used to be below 2-1 ratio with the GOP but now they are just above the 2-1 ratio.

Furthermore it is estimated that 30,000 to 35,000 Early Voters will try to make their will known with suspect electronic voting machines. Princeton U did a case study where they showed how to break into the machines, change the memory cards and close up in less than 7 minutes where they could pre-determine the vote even fooling the print outs. If anyone asks today is the last day to request a MIB and receive a paper ballot in early voting. Just a thought. Overall what this means is over 180,000 in El Paso County will have voted before November 1st when the campaigns go on a 96-hour marathon effort in what is known as GOTV. Meaning 200,000 potential votes are available on Tuesday, 53% which the turnout is far less than MIB results that are estimated to be over 90% turnout.

If a total 80% turnout is expected or 304,000 votes in total, than it is estimated 134,000 of the remaining 200,000 votes will be cast on Tuesday. El Paso County has said they have 170,000 available paper ballots for Tuesday. So if 100% turned than again 30,000 would be forced to use those suspect machines. But let us go back to reality. 134,000 voters means lines will be long and longer. This will be interesting and I think if any of you went to the caucuses, county conventions or even the State Conventions you will experience similar chaos, frustration and fatique.

Now the ground game. Where is the McCain volunteers. Our volunteers have not seen them in any neighborhoods well they must be calling and not canvassing. The Obama campaign has an extraordinary organization. They have broken the region into 11 subgroups, where each have over 30 staging location offices directly tied to their neighborhood precincts. Some of those offices will have 30-50 canvassers and phone bankers but some like ours will have over 150 voluntteers canvassing and phoning and a full volunteer lead staff of a dozen individuals. The impact of this organization cannot be underestimated. Internally polling has demonstrated that 60% of those previously contacted (voters not considered Obama or Democratic Party bases) supported Obama because of the direct volunteer contact. Now that the Obama GOTV is focused on the Democratic Base and previously identified Obama supporters this ratio is expected to exceed 9 to 1.

So here are my current predictions: Obama will exceed 47% in El Paso County and possibly put the county in competitive play meaning that Colorado will go Obama in larger numbers than predicted. The impact that it will have on the Democratic Party ticket will be significant. Mark Udall will benefit and probably win by numbers mirroring Governor Ritter's numbers, while Hal Bidlack might have a genuine chance at a close race victory in CD 5. Bottom line in the Congressional race is that Bidlack with far less money than Fawcett will probably exceed 44% and depending on the depressed turnout in the GOP Faith-Base could move that bar close to 50%.

The biggest upset will be Pete Lee who will secure Senate District 12 with numbers mirroring John Morse's 2006 victory where heavy local GOP and Unaffiliated crossover votes will put two Democratic Senators from once Crimson Red El Paso County. Looking at the map, districts hugging the actual Front Range running from the Air Force Base down to Ft Carson along I-25 will have Democratic representation. The other silent possiblility will be Anna Lord's campaign in House District 21 and Dennis Aupen's bid in House District 17 where both could surprise the once solid Crimson El Paso County.

All this could make for a big party at the Antler's Hilton in downtown Colorado Springs on Election Night. Which by the way Genie Blume is seeking donations so that volunteers and staff who have toiled for over a year can have celebration party. One local victory would often bring about the revelers, but with Mike Merrilfield winning his 4th bid for Representative, and possibly two to four local candidates securing local wins the smiles will be uncontained.

Now don't look for much more contribution to this blog here on out. Vote and vote early. Volunteer and get your neighbors and friends to the polls and understand this is a change election brought on by a movement.

Neighborhood team member in the news, McCain reportedly conceding Colorado and the final push

Yesterday I was told that canvass superstar, Jon Wuerth one of TEAM 3 in House District 21 in Colorado Springs was profiled in a Washington Post video report. Jon was once the recipient of a volunteer award to meet with Obama by knocking on over 300 doors in a weekend. I have come to know Jon as a member of our volunteer team and he has been instrumental in moving Colorado Springs towards Obama one knock and one voter registration at a time. When you watch the report notice Jon running from door to door.

Today, on CNN, John King their chief political reporter broke with the news that the McCain campaign is down to its final [fatal] strategy to win the electoral college by conceding Colorado along with New Mexico and Iowa. These are three states that Bush won in 2004 with his narrow re-election win. But conceding Colorado. Ironically this is directly in conflict with Washington Post's Dan Balz's report on Face the Nation Sunday when he stated that the Obama campaign has a multiple 3-2-1 strategy win the Electoral College. What is interesting is that this comes on the heals of McCain has vacating Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin both considered battleground states which have fallen recently to the Obama camp. Now McCain is vacating New Mexico, Iowa and COLORADO!

King's report states that McCain's final two weeks will concentrate on the following six states; Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Virginia and also foregoing any idea of a popular vote win. (This is a Helm's Deep mentality). Contrast this with the Obama 3-2-1 strategy where they hold the following: (1) Win one-state of either Florida and/or Ohio and they win. (2) Win two states of Virginia and either New Mexico or Iowa and they win. (3) Win three states of New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado and they win.

Here is McCain's head wind to turn this around:

• Ohio---Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 2.8
• Pennsylvania---Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 11.0
• Florida----Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 2.0
• Virginia---Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 8.0
• North Carolina---Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 2.3
• Nevada---Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 4.2
  

Hmmmm....looks like an Inside Straight or a Royal Flush...like in flushing the Republican's down the toilet Tom......

But...but McCain is now conceding the the three states...what is their vision....sweeping the six above that includes Pennsylvania? For this to happen the McCain campaign will have to employ the full measure of the race card and Reverand Wright believing that Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Nevada and Pennsylvania will buy it. The final scorched earth politics is at hand. Be prepared, and it will not work either....

Finally the Colorado Springs ground game. We are now fully focused on GOTV (Get Out To Vote) activities involving direct contact to Mail In Ballot (MIB) voters, assembling Early Vote efforts and finally the the push to get Obama voters to the polls on Election Day. The final weekend we will assemble and deploy literally a couple thousand volunteers into El Paso County knocking on doors and phoning the remaining voters. It will be an experience of a lifetime and may I invite everyone, those who have volunteered alread and those who have not to get involved. Please call the Obama campaign office 719-328-1517 or email me.

Colorado Springs embarrassingly full of Voter Registration Quirks & Mistakes

Yesterday the Colorado Springs Independent published an article outlining some of the strange things appearing daily. Ironically my lovely wife Sue was one of the profiled examples to these happenings.

Others are coming to share similar fears as questions build about errors, misinformation and appearances of partisanship coming out of County Clerk Bob Balink's office.

Sue Nemanich requested a mail-in ballot in August. When it arrived in early October, her last name was spelled with an extra "a" at the end. Bob Nemanich, Sue's husband and an active local Democrat, started making calls to figure out what to do. He says he received repeated assurances she would have no problem casting the ballot with the misspelling — until Liz Olson, the county election manager, told him the ballot was "spoiled," and that a new one would be sent.

The new ballot arrived with "DEM" showing through the envelope. Nemanich says his initial fears about contradictory and misleading information were gradually overtaken by amazement.

"Anybody who sees this can see this is a Democratic Party ballot," he says. "It invites easy manipulation."

Pat Waak, the Colorado Democratic Party Chair, says Tuesday afternoon she's "very troubled" by reports she'd heard from El Paso and Weld counties of mail-in ballots with party affiliation on address labels.

"It concerns me that it might lead to selecting out certain ballots," Waak says.

Later in the afternoon, Balink and Olson explain that a voter's party affiliation only shows up on replacement mail-in ballots. The labels are generated automatically, Olson explains, by the state's voter registration database. Balink rejects the suggestion that the markings on mail-in ballots represent a "glitch."

Now think about it. It is believed that up to 1.2M to 1.5M Mail In Ballots will be distributed in Colorado this election and how many will end up spoiled? One percent to possibly five percent, that is 12,000-15,000 up to 60,000 to 75,000 not having a secret ballot. That in of itself could effect the election if those ballots suddenly don't end up being counted because someone assumed which way a voter cast their ballot because of party affiliation.

On the heals of this is the Independent's publisher, John Weiss who has convened another of his appeasing Town Hall Meetings.

Dear Clerk Balink:
Thank you for agreeing to participate and/or to have your associate Liz Olson participate in this important town hall meeting that will take place on Monday, October 27 from 2-3:30 PM at the Penrose Library in downtown Colorado Springs. The focus of this gathering will be to provide local citizens with a forum to air their concerns – and hopefully have their questions answered...

...El Paso County Commission Chair Dennis Hisey, Colorado Springs City Councilor Jan Martin and State Senator John Morse have all agreed to help promote this Town Hall as well as participate in this meeting, if their schedules permit...The Independent, The Gazette and KRCC-FM have agreed to help promote and co-sponsor this event. In addition, three non-partisan civic organizations have agreed to help co-sponsor and help promote this event: Common Cause of the Pikes Peak Region, League of Woman Voters of the Pikes Peak Region and Citizens Project. We also anticipate that a local station will televise this session.

Speaking of Senator John Morris, he held a (link to live video) press conference in Colorado Springs

The El Paso County Clerk and Recorder is under scrutiny again. The Democratic Party claims Bob Balink isn't being fair with the election process.

This all started about a month ago when allegations surfaced that Colorado College students were given the wrong voter registration requirements. Clerk and Recorder Balink has since apologized for giving the students the wrong information.

But now, the Democrats said they question his competency to run a fair and clean election. This, Democrats said, after glitches continue to come out of Balink’s office.

The most recent incident happened over the weekend when voter registration information on a completed absentee ballot request form was apparently faxed from the clerk's office to several media outlets including KKTV. The voter’s personal information was on the form, including his social security number, birth date and address.

"When asked why this got faxed, he (Balink) said, he had no clue. I suggest we get a county clerk who has a clue. Regardless of the mistake, who was he faxing this to anyway?" questioned State Senator John Morse.

Balink wasn't available for an on-camera interview, but he told 11 News he didn't know how the information got out.

"He's working on a strategy to suppress votes. He’s not working to make sure everyone gets to vote," said Sen. Morse.

So here is the bottom line. If you have received a Mail In Ballot in Colorado, carefully review all the information regarding your ID. If there is one iota of a mistake, you must get a replacement. When you do, please do not mail it, it will show your party affiliation but hand deliver it back to the County Clerk's Office. Report all irregularities to the press and the Obama campaign.

How effective is a ground game?

Campaigns can spend oodles of cash on advertising where it gets much attention from media insiders but as time goes on psychologically most people tune out the bull sh$t. This morning my literal, attentive son was absolutely inattentive as I asked if one of the few McCain ads on the morning cable talk show lineup whether the McCain ad was negative? He said, "Dad I haven't paid attention to any ads for at the last couple of weeks, except Bidlack's because it has so many people from our church in them." In fact whenever the program we watch is on we scramble for the remote whenever a friggin TV commercial comes on and either depress the mute button or flash to another channel to avoid any and all commercials during this time.

So the waste of money spent must be enormous. That said I was told an interesting statistic regarding the ground game effect this weekend. The Obama campaign in Colorado holds that every voter they have contacted has expressed support for Obama at a 59% clip. Now this is not a small sample where the campaign has fanned out to make personal contact not with regular voting Democrats or even moderately regular voting Democrats but targeted sporadic voting Democrats, all unaffiliated voters (Independents) and specific targeted Republicans. This is neither a small universe nor an easy one which by all accounts is traditionally a Republican/conservative leaning voting universe in Colorado.

Therefore the political science claim that a traditional effective ground game political organization---meaning phone bank volunteers, walking canvass volunteers and voter registration volunteers, usually moves the voting bar 3-5%. But in this case it appears to be exceeding the high mark of 5% when you begin to figure in the persuasion universe contact rate of 59% support. This is not an easy task but the Obama campaign not only has done it well, it has done where they identified almost a thousand volunteer leads in just 20 precincts in Colorado Springs. These are individuals who expressed an initial willingness to volunteer from a contact with another Obama volunteer, either on the phone, at the door or attending an event like a house party. Now most contacts even though they might express support for Obama, they do not express a willingness to volunteer.

This is why yesterday I published the high probability the vote in El Paso County is far closer than anyone has imagined. This huge swing of Independent voters, touched the army of Obama volunteer, plus lazy voting Dems and cross over Republicans are piling up while the motivation and turnout in the McCain camp is atrophying. Thus this is why I think the ground game here Colorado will move the bar from 5% to 9% depending on locale.

In many ways what we have found is a reverse motion on enthusiasm for volunteer support in neighborhoods. Traditional Democratic leaning areas like Old Colorado City, Manitou Springs, Fountain, Security, Hillside and Nob Hill neighborhoods have had inconsistent or sporadic volunteer attendance and activities. While in contested areas like Colorado Springs upper and lower west sides, Old North Ends, Central City and even some East Side Neighborhoods volunteerism is robust and consistent. In areas considered almost uniform Republican like Briargate, Black Forest, Broodmoor, and even Monument has seen highly motivated small teams providing a huge impact where previous presence was never seen.

Now the ground game is migrating away from persuasion activities to early GOTV activities chasing Mail In ballot recipients and still moving registered voters to MIB status. At the same time they are organizing and preparing their entire volunteer force to take on the Election Day where they intend to contact every targeted voter that weekend and motivate and facilitate them to vote. It is not glamorous, nor is it reported on the Cable News channels but it is more effective than another crummy television commercial.

Today's early prediction for El Paso County

Essentially the campaign in El Paso County began back in late March 2007 when a few idealistic and disgruntled middle class persons congregated in the Obama social network created for such a purpose. Here I met Barbara, Vinai, Andy, Kathy, Lynn, Terry, Jason, Renee among many others who led this effort. What is appearing is something beyond our collective imaginations.

Hold your hats, hitch up your belt and sit down for what I am going to tell you is amazing. If the election were held today I think Obama will be within a couple of percentage points of carrying this RedZone of RedZones, we know as El Paso County, home of Focus on the Family and the New Life Church. The place where Doug Bruce resides, the birthplace of the Libertarian Party and all that is reactionary right-wing. If the election were held I think the numbers would reflect that McCain would squeek by with a 50.5% to Obama 47.3% (Barr and others would get the rest). Last last week I thumbnailed a prediction of 44-47% but then when I drilled baby drilled into the data and found variances with new voter and previous voter statistics the percentage actually increased.


How am I coming to this conclusion? Well let us start to break this down.

• Republicans registered 165,500 (12,000 new)
• Independents registered 120,850 (12,400 new)
• Democrats registered 84,800 (16,200 new)

Some assumptions in this year's election: New (Republican and Independent) registrants vote at higher percentages (80%) and Democrat new registrations are voting at 95% for Obama and Independent new registrants at 80% rate for Obama. (Source FiveThirtyEight.com---taken from primary data).

Republicans are locally less motivated to due to local events (New Life Church scandal where it now is non political no phone banks), Focus on the Family (lay offs and McCain), Lamborn campaign unfunded and the continuing Wall Street Market Crash. Historical numbers hold that they voted at 73% in '04 and will probably vote at 63% (local GOP statement). New registrants will vote at 80% levels. Bleed in the ranks where Libertarian Party will get 5-7% of total vote because of protest vote within pool voting.

Independents, new registrants will follow FiveThirtyEight model and vote at 80% due to two factors locally, MIB registration effort and Obama factor. They are projected to vote 80/20 Obama to McCain see FiveThirtyEight.com. Existing or previous Independent voter will have a 70% (some depressed of about 5% due to long lines at the end of the day) countered by Obama ground game of idenifying Obama supporter and leaners getting them higher MIB levels. Existing voters will be split 47% 47% (McCain Obama) with remaining going to Libertarian (5%)

Democrats, new registrants will vote at 85% levels because of MIB effort and Obama effect and vote at 95% for Obama. Existing Democrats will vote at 80% turnout and 90% for Obama.

Projected McCain vote = 125,000 (+/-)
New Voters(R): 7680 (+) New Voters(I) 2200 (+) New Voters(D) 1000 = 11,000
Prev voters(R) 77,300 (+) Prev Voters(I) 32,100 (+) Prev Voter(D) 4350 = 113,750

Projected Obama vote = 117,700 (+/-)
New Voters(R) 1440 (+) New Voters(I) 7950 (+) New Voters(D) 12,300 = 21,700
Prev Voters(R) 14,500 (+) Prev Voters(I) 32,000 Prev Voters (D) 49,500= 96,000

Libertarian Party and other votes amass 6000 votes (+/-)
All told El Paso County has a turnout of 67% (some of it because of long lines at the end of the day).

This has huge implications for the down ticket going forward with the top of the ticket bringing in record numbers. In 2004 Salazar polled 81,000 votes. In 2006 Ritter polled 69,000 votes but got 39.7%, an increase of 5% from Salazar, where then Ritter won by a 5% larger margin than what Salazar defeated Coors. This is now being called the El Paso factor. If Obama carries 45% or more in El Paso County it could imply that he might win by a landslide of 58-59% statewide. All this correlates with the science of the ground game where political observers note a strong volunteer organization moves the bar 5-7% points from the old standard. This would fall into that line of reasoning.

There are still three weeks left and with the Stock Market tanking further day-by-day and McCain's campaign imploding due to a rudderless strategy and narrative could Obama actually close up 6 or 7000 more votes? Well two things would have to happen.

• One, the turnout for Republicans falls even more than 63% for previous voters. This could happen if the volunteer core in the GOP are lax in getting them MIB's and they find themselves having to wait in a line for two to four hours to vote for candidates that are likely going to lose. That would not please Lamborn, but again the RNC has given him no money!
• Two, the financial markets go into a total nose dive with more economic news depressing the electorate even more.

That could move the turnout to about 60% in the previous voting Republican Party base and dampen a bit the new voters where McCain's total falls to below 120,000 with Obama's inching up towards 120,000. Stranger things have happened, but in all cases this is extraordinary projections!

Voter problems rising

It has been busy the last couple of days as the campaign is simultaneously organizing for this final push known as GOTV (Get Out The Vote) effort is under with early voting culminating in the final weekend. The plan the Obama campaign is simply extraordinary for the few of us who have toiled in previous election days when we ran around like a Chinese Fire Drill in a silent movie. That said Colorado appears to be headed for the dubious distinction that has befallen Florida & Ohio as a corrupted voter environment. The reason is we have highly partisan and vested Republicans in control of the Secretary of State's office with partners like Bob Balink here in El Paso County who are unabashed in trying to make tactical nefarious efforts in suppressing opposition votes.

Also I am not going to provide a lot of regurgetation from the news pertaining to the polls or campaign he said---they said. You all can find that stuff on your own, and instead my own personal news and analysis centered upon El Paso County Colorado. So let me start, El Paso County's Clerk's office has become a daily stop for the Democratic Party Voter Protection Legal Team---are any of you surprised? Yesterday they participated with Deputy Secretary of State, William Hobbs with Bob Balink to find out that Balink's office is non compliant in processing Mail In Ballot (MIB's) requests that are coming in greater than 2000 per day. Balink is trying to brag that his office sent out over 110,000 MIB's on October 3rd and subsequently another 10,00o or so since but the process is getting backed up compared to other counties. This on the heals of State Senator John Morse's blistering statement to the press that outlined twelve (12) points of incompetence and shenanigans. Morse said:

But recent performances by the clerk and recorder — a delegate last month to the Republican National Convention in St. Paul — has left Morse peeling the gloves off.

Yes, Morse, a Democrat who represents much of south-central Colorado Springs in El Paso County, is fuming over recent snafus which, in his mind, constitute an emerging and consistent pattern. Morse does not mince words as he rattles off what he calls Balink’s 12-point strategy to disenfranchise voters. Without further ado:

El Paso County is Colorado’s most-populated county. It’s also, undeniably, a GOP stronghold with a rich legacy of political hijinks and shenanigans — usually inspired by Republicans. And that leaves plenty of progressives leery that, come Election Day, Clerk and Recorder Bob Balink will do everything he can to make it difficult, or at least unpleasant, for non-Republicans to vote.

Which leads us to Democrat state Sen. John Morse’s claims of Balink’s 12-point strategy to suppress the vote.

But on Monday an even more foreboding discovery was made regarding what is known as Replacement MIB from spoiled original ballots. You see, my wife received a MIB that possessed what is becoming a common thing, a data entry error in the spelling of her last name when she updated her registration this summer. It was corrected in the database but not in time to be caught by the Secretary of States printing of the original batch of MIB forms. After talking with Balink's Election office staff who were uninformed as to what to actually do with a non matching name until we reached Liz Olson the Election Department Manager where upon Olson cancelled my wife's original ballot and sent out a new one. That sounded pretty simple until we got the replacement ballot on Monday.

There we found that on address label which possesses the voter's ID her PARTY AFFILIATION was on it---PTY DEM. WTF! How can she now have a secret ballot when her party affiliation is as plain as day on the return envelope. Every mail handler from the carrier to the processor to the mail room clerk in the partisan County Clerk's office can see that this ballot is from a Democratic Party voter! Well I told the press, the voter protection legal team and talked directly to Olson and Balink. Alarms went off all over the place---this shouldn't happen it is wrong everyone said. By the end of the day we found out that the Secretary of State's SCORE (voter database) has a glitch when it comes to replacement ballot requests---it is hard coded to display party affiliation---why no one is admitting or seems to know. But here is the problem, everyone is trying to get voters to use the MIB process to stem the potential lines on election day.

The ballot you see takes at least an hour to navigate with all the (idiotic) voter initiatives written as if they are a crossword puzzle exercise so basically each precinct will only be able to handle about 10-15 voters per hour. Come on precincts have between 500 and 1000 voters and if the turnout is 80% they can only handle 180 voters in the 12 hours allotted on election day. You do the math, polls conceivably should be open for 3 days at that rate. S

So now the powers that be are trying to get well over a million voters to use the MIB option---except if one or two percent develop a spoiled ballot their replacement will have their party affiliation on it and they will lose the other sanctinity of our system---a secret ballot. Good job Coffman.

Tomorrow the Colorado Spring Independent will carry that other stories about El Paso County voter troubles so stay tuned.

October's Surprise: McCain scolds supporters

Yesterday at a Town Hall gathering in Minnesota, John McCain came face-to-face (You Tube video here) with the hyperbole, prejudice, hatred and the danger of whipping up the fear of his political base towards his political opponent. McCain then caved in, but why? After all we've seen this crap for months, and to think this was some new found moral revival would be utterly naive, as naive as those who believe that Obama is an Arab or Muslim Manchurian Candidate, or worse an outright terrorist as questioner attempted to make the case for in Minnesota. The bottom line is that it became apparent to McCain that these personal attacks where politically backfiring. Perhaps that might be too ungenerous, afterall I too am partisan.

But to think anything else requires a serious and record 'leap of faith', where my judgment is not grounded in the body of evidence over this past year of McCain's behavior. Their aim was absolutely transparent attempting to extort America's eye on the subject of Obama's relationship to William Ayers as the focal point of the campaign narrative, while the global' financial markets crash at historic levels, thrusting the nation's economy into total uncertainty. The reality was that McCain's attacks, its apparent recklessness and ferocity BLEWBACK in even greater force even within his own party making him a caricature instead of potential leader of the free world.

If nothing else McCain's narrative could be construed as possibly inciting a mob riot, examples throughout the national press, and more so locally. Furthermore through this period many prominent Republicans including the usual pundits came out and either openly denounced or chided McCain and his campaign stating that it bordered on being Un-American. Naturally these public criticisms are only the tip of the iceberg especially among regular Republicans, be it here in Colorado or other places of various of local conservative renown.

In detail these telling moments might define the entire campaign, where America comes face to face with itself, seeing the brutal remnants of the 20th Century still alive in its political spectrum, still as ugly as it ever was, faced off with the hope and forward diverse looking profile of the 21st Century. Here in Minnesota a man rises in the crowd and publicly addresses John McCain, staring that "he is scared of any Obama presidency". McCain responds to the contrary what most in the audience were thinking, (actually hoping that McCain will confirm their political emotions and distorted worldview) as it boos, where he continues to declares for the world to know: that Obama "is a decent person and a person you do not have to be scared [of] as President of the United States."

But more important was the non verbal language, this spoke volumes for both the assembled and those who have watched in news clips. McCain's facial expression was one of serious contrition, as if McCain was being compelled to apologize, the non verbal statement of "I am very sorry". McCain was ashamed for being a part of this ugliness, this social transgression expressing nothing other than political hate.

Then without provocation an even grittier moment came later, when a woman with a hair doo that obviously came from hours of neglect and bedrest---the ultimate senior bedhead. McCain was standing up close with the bedheaded woman who then held in all belief, that "she had read alot about Obama and that she couldn't trust Obama", then her sentence jumped, blurting out that "it's because he's an Arab and a Terrorist!".

McCain resonantly shook his head in disagreement whereby in absolute authority snatched the microphone from the blithering woman continuing to shake his head negatively, his eyes down in resignation and disgust, "No, Ma'am. No, Ma'am. He's a decent family man, citizen, that I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues."

What has McCain gotten himself embroiled into? Obviously he is frustrated, angry and not in control with his own image and his own campaign? Who is? What is? and yet he has sown or it has been sown into something of a cartoon cut out. The problem still exists that McCain continues to spend millions on campaign ads saying that Obama is dangerous, how else are people going to react but take him literally and connect the viral Internet lies to his narratives?

It could be that McCain and his minions are simply over the heads, with both the narrative, the campaign management. Think of it this way, McCain's campaign is singularly premised on the idea that America should be scared of an Obama presidency---period. Remove the fear of an Obama Presidency and there is no rational reason NOT to vote for Obama, in that McCain has already conceded every other policy initiative and platform idea to Obama, by holding to this total negative smear campaign. What else has there been? Voters from the beginning have said WE WANT A CHANGE. Stoking this fear of Obama, both the man and his mission, is all that McCain had left, and now he apparently has seen that too is self-destructive to him and so he now has a conscience?

But the campaign of destruction continued today, (recording of the conference call here), where the McCain campaign expanded their attacks on Obama's past association with William Ayers--now trying to ring in Michelle Obama -- (even though McCain has repeatedly maintained that their spouses are off limits during this campaign).

What could possibly be the new attack? Bernardine Dohrn, who is Ayers' wife and also a former Weatherman, went to work at the pretigious Chicago-based national law firm of Sidley & Austin, back in 1984 where then 3 years following so did, Michelle. This is a mega firm where even my late personal friend the former Federal Jurist Prentice Marshall did pro-bono work out of. Weird and nonsensical as it may seem in that there are 500 lawyers working all over the place in those office.

That said the attack came today in a McCain conference call with reporters featuring John Murtagh, where he noted that Dohrn and Michelle Obama had both worked at the firm starting in the late 1980s. Murtagh never alleged that Michelle or Dohrn even knew each other, instead suggested that they simply could have! If so, he said, "the Obamas have known the two longer than suspected". McCarthyism at its neo-grandest! Remember this is not some schlep surrogate or pundit talking on FOX News it was on a call organized by the McCain organization and he was reading a prepared statement--which means it went through the McCain vetting process. ---WOW--- So now what are we to believe? What a long strange trip its been.

But if that was something you wanted to ignore, take some time to review this video from a news team that worked the lines before a Palin Rally in Pennsylvania. (Here is the link to the video). It is haunting and riveting in that so many seeminly good American souls are caught up in the cultural hate wars that are being fanned by Palin and McCain's campaign. This is how people--some people---actually think. I like the blithering well dressed male IDIOT BRAIN who maintains that the current economic meltdown is Obama's fault because he is winning in the polls. It is the pure US versus THEM....the tribal instinct gone weird and dangerous.

Colorado Springs becoming focus on Voter Reg, our anecdotal experience

As the campaign continues to heat up on whether we should have "Hope" or "Fear", who will be elected and how they will govern, we still find ourselves back to the question of whether the U.S. can actually conduct honest elections? Let me ask whether Colorado can and in that venue, can we trust El Paso County?

The Colorado Springs Independent yesterday published a riveting article about El Paso County and its consistent bad behavior of "Bob Balink", the County Clerk.

Of course, making the voting process easy is not a top goal for Bob Balink, El Paso County's clerk and recorder. The outspoken Republican has long called for requiring photo identification at polling places and other measures he says are needed to stop fraud.

Recently, Balink made noise about fraudulent voter registrations after employees found about 10 applications with apparent errors. He also triggered an outcry by releasing information to Colorado College asserting that students from other states are ineligible to vote. (Though Balink later retracted that information, a statement currently posted on the clerk and recorder's Web site warns students about risks of registering to vote in Colorado and suggests they could be victims of exploitation.)

But he and four others who registered as Democrats still could not find proof that their registrations went through. Wildenstein just needed his address changed, but he says it wasn't processed until he visited the clerk's office on Oct. 2.

"They didn't know what happened to mine," he says.

Liz Olson, the county's election manager, indicates that since Aug. 1, a total of 6,157 residents have registered Republican, 6,145 have registered Democratic and 8,588 have declared no party. This represents something of a Democratic surge, given that current registration numbers in the county have Republicans at a 2-to-1 advantage. (Through Oct. 7, El Paso County had 372,359 registered voters, with 164,844 Republicans, 83,737 Democrats, 121,912 unaffiliated and 1,866 with other parties.)

State Sen. John Morse, a local Democrat who has expressed concern that registrations from his own party have been disproportionately rejected or ignored, is skeptical after hearing the latest numbers.

"Something seems wrong there," he says, suggesting there should be more registered Democrats. "With all the work [by] the Obama campaign, it doesn't make sense."...

Others who register Monday have greater cause for irritation. Susan Powell (relative of Indy sales staffer P.K. Powell) was already a registered voter when she tried signing up online for a mail ballot this summer. After starting to fill out the form, she changed her mind and closed the window.

She didn't think about her registration again until she searched the secretary of state's Web site over the weekend. She was alarmed to find her entire registration had somehow been deleted.

"If I hadn't checked ..." she says in a tone of dread.

Now here is our story: My wife filled out an address change registration back in August that included a permanent MIB request. I checked the Secretary of State's on line registration info link often and until mid September when my daughter's new Voter ID arrived. She had turned her registration change in 3 weeks after my wife! Upon calling the El Paso Clerk's office I found that they had mistakenly misspelled her last name, placing another letter at the end of our surname. They corrected it in the computer and consequently she received her Voter ID with the correct information.

Then over the last weekend we received our Mail In Ballots and her name was misspelled with the extra letter! My wife who will be an election judge and someone who is a former banker and stickler for exact information said I don't think I can use this ballot. Well I checked and calling the infamous El Paso County Clerk's Office I inquired:

Me: What are we supposed to do?

Jennifer: (staffer who answered the phone), "Here is the process, the computer will read the bar code and it will see that your wife is properly registered and match her signature and there will probably not be a problem".

ME: "Probably? How can I be assured period?"

Jennifer: Silence, "well I don't know".

Me:"Should I bring the ballot in and get a replacement?"

Jennifer: "I don't know the laws, let me check".

Skytel: (Supervisor) "Sir, I don't think there will be a problem", (repeat of the process),

Me: I cut her off, "Think"? What specifically should we do to assure that her vote will not be challenged?

Skytel: "You can bring it down here."

Me: Can? "Should I or not? My wife is an elections judge and she said she would challenge it, why wouldn't another judge challenge it?"

Skytel: "Let me transfer you to Bob Balink's secretary".

Mary Lynn (Balink's Admin Asst.) She basically got me to leave my name and phone number.

About an hour later Liz Olsen, the Elections Manager called and we conversed.

Liz: "Mr. Nemanich, if you like we can send out a new ballot with the updated and correct name on the ballot and either you can destroy or bring in the spoiled ballot and we will destroy it."

Me: "I am happy you cleared this up even though my wife and I knew the answer beforehand, I wanted to see how your office reacted to the inquiry. Now you need to have your staff knowledable to inform all citizens what are their options, not what could happen or it probably will not be a problem."

Liz: "I will and thank you."

Now this is followed up with an amazing letter Governor Ritter sent to Secretary of State Coffman's office. Please not the claims of disinformation and specifically the paragraphs outlining Balink's office here in Colorado Springs.

OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR
136 State Capitol Building
Denver, Colorado 80203
(303) 866 -2471
(303) 866 - 2003 fax

Bill Ritter, Jr.
Governor
October 9.2008

Secretary of State Mike Coffman
Colorado Department of State
1700 Broadway
Denver, CO 80290

Dear Secretary Coffman:

I am certain that you share my view that the opportunity to vote in our elections is a fundamental right that, as public officials, we must make every effort to protect. I believe that you also share my commitment to ensuring that all Coloradans who are qualified and wish to exercise this right have every opportunity to do so in November's election. The purpose of this letter is to urge you to take more aggressive steps to correct an error made by your office regarding the deadline for remedying an incomplete voter registration application. A letter prepared by your office and mailed by a number of county clerks incorrectly told over 4,000 registrants with incomplete applications that any deficiencies had to be rectified by October 6, 2008. As you know, under state statute and your own rules, these registrants may correct or supplement their applications at anytime prior to voting. See C.R.S. § 1-2-509(3); Election Rule 2.6.3. Your dissemination of
inaccurate information may disenfranchise hundreds or thousands of Coloradans, an outcome that is unacceptable.

Since Monday my Office has been contacted directly by scores of constituents who are concerned that they and others who thought they registered to vote will be disenfranchised come election day. Members of my staff have been in contact with members of your staff, and I am aware that your office learned last Friday that your initial instruction to county clerks was inaccurate. Further, I understand that your office
is preparing a letter to go to the applicants who were provided inaccurate information, but that this letter will not be completed until Friday of this week at the earliest. or as late as next week. In my view this letter alone is too little, too late. I urge you, as the chief election official in this State, to direct all county election officials to make personal contact by telephone with each potential voter who may have been misled or confused by the earlier communications. I urge you to direct county election officials to include these people on the polling books statewide and to provide these individuals with the opportunity to remedy this technical deficiency at the polls on election day. Finally, I urge you to contact media outlets statewide to ensure that corrected information is communicated as broadly as possible. In short, please ensure that these individuals are notified that they will be afforded every opportunity to remedy any deficiencies in their applications with minimal burden through election day.

Unfortunately, this is not the first time this season that county election officials have issued erroneous communications that have the potential to disenfranchise qualified voters. Last month, EI Paso County Clerk and Recorder Bob Balink publicly acknowledged that he had misinterpreted Colorado law when he sent an erroneous message to Colorado College indicating that students whose parents live in another state and claim them as dependents for tax purposes are not eligible to register to vote in Colorado. Even after correcting his error, Mr. Balink posted on his office's website a caution to college students warning them of potential negative ramifications of registering to vote in Colorado. These actions were, in the first case, wrong and in the other, beyond the scope of his duties as Clerk. His actions are unacceptable and should
be carefully scrutinized by your office.

It is critical that public officials charged with carrying out the law provide the public with accurate information. It is all the more critical when, as here, the wrong information has the impact of discouraging citizens from exercising a fundamental right. Providing the wrong information is inexcusable for many reasons: it disenfranchises
voters; it makes citizens skeptical (especially when the chief election official is on the ballot); and it exposes the State to litigation risk. But most importantly, it risks impacting the outcome of the election.

Our focus as public officials should be on ensuring that every qualified elector in this State is able to exercise his or her right to vote in the upcoming election. This includes encouraging the use of mail-in ballots, as well as expanding access to early voting opportunities. To that end, I ask that you join me in requesting that every county across our State open its polls on weekends during the early voting period, as feasible.
Providing additional access to early voting opportunities across the State, at times most convenient for the working men and women of Colorado, is all the more critical in this year's election when we can expect record turnout and a longer than usual ballot. In addition, I ask that you join me in requesting that those voters who have the flexibility in their schedules to permit them to vote between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. on election day, when lines will be shortest, do so. It is steps like these that will help ensure that all Coloradans who are registered and wish to vote will be able to exercise this fundamental right.

Thank you for your prompt attention to these issues.

Sincerely,
.
Bill Ritter,Jr.

Governor

So what gives? The situation is becoming pretty basic even the Governor see's what is going on, disinformation, manipulation, questionable recording, incompetence and outright suppression.

Lastly, I have accessed the most up-to-date registration totals for El Paso County. They still are receiving applications by mail and updating the file.

Democrats: 84,042----Republicans 164, 738---Unaffiliated 120,350 total 369,130

01/28/08: D-68,689-------Rep's 153,532----Unaffiliated 108,406--total 330,627

--------+15,353--------- + 11,206-------------- +11,944------- +38, 503

---------22% up---------- 7% up----------------- 11% up

Or think of it this way; 18% of Dem voters have been registrated this year, while 6% of GOP voters have been registered, and just under 10% of unaffiliated voters. FiveThirtyEight.com holds to this projection. 80% of new Dem & Unaffiliated voters intend to vote for Obama at a 75% turnout or a pool of 27, 292, or 20, 473 voting and 16,378 Obama votes to 4094 to McCain or a net 12, 300. If this is accomplished I think Obama is going to surpass 45% for El Paso County and possibly a couple of ticks higher---more on that later.

CNBC today 3:45 PM "Do I dare say 'is this a CRASH'"---YES

If you haven't heard already Wall Street fell on its face today falling 678.91 points---worst percentage drop this year. Here are some pictures for you as they always speak a thousand words.This might explain the reason why the Panic. the above graph of the DOW current average (2003-2008) is super-imposed over the graph of the graph from 1925 to 1931.

If you want to cry through your tears I have a cartoon for you.

"In my face"; plus reports: ground game, COLO Springs, and MORE

In the bald face effort to change the tenor, tone and narrative of the race that by all accounts---including the Republican pundits---McCain is losing, Obama has responded in kind: "He can't say it to my face". On ABC NEWS last night with Charlie Gibson: Obama, last night, effectively dared McCain, (link to video) to bring up Ayers to his face!



In short Obama suggested that [the all powerful Maverick] McCain is a basically a coward, It appears Obama now is willing to invite a direct confrontation over Ayers since it would give him a chance to directly hit McCain with the charge that he's trying to distract from the economy with frivolous attacks. Further more it would on the national stage clearly expose the ultimate hypocricy where the Chicago Annenberg Challenge which Obama and Ayres served on the board is the same Anneberg family that just endorsed McCain as longtime Pennsylvania Republicans. Huffington Post reports that:

On Wednesday morning, John McCain's campaign released a list of 100 former ambassadors endorsing the GOP presidential nominee.

Second on the list, though her name is misspelled, is Leonore Annenberg, currently the president and chairman of the of the Annenberg Foundation...the name of the Chicago education board where Barack Obama and William Ayers sat in the room six times together...where As a former Republican representative in Illinois told NPR on Monday, smearing Obama for his board association with Ayers is "nonsensical."

I think the real metaphor is that Obama has stuffed McCain's craziness in avoiding what probably is the worst economic climate since when my father was wearing cloth diapers is stuffing McCain/Palin's shot in the face!





The Huffington Post also gives a detailed report of the revolutionary strategy and implementation of Obama's ground game building the largest and most powerful volunteer organization in modern politics. It is a powerful read for all of us to know we are involved in something more than merely a political campaign but revolution of sorts that will define the next generation of the 21st Century.

Inside the Obama campaign, almost without anyone noticing, an insurgent generation of organizers has built the Progressive movement a brand new and potentially durable people's organization, in a dozen states, rooted at the neighborhood level.

The "New Organizers" have succeeded in building what many netroots-oriented campaigners have been dreaming about for a decade. Other recent attempts have failed because they were either so "top-down" and/or poorly-managed that they choked volunteer leadership and enthusiasm; or because they were so dogmatically fixated on pure peer-to-peer or "bottom-up" organizing that they rejected basic management, accountability and planning. The architects and builders of the Obama field campaign, on the other hand, have undogmatically mixed timeless traditions and discipline of good organizing with new technologies of decentralization and self-organization.

Win or lose, "The New Organizers" have already transformed thousands of communities—and revolutionized the way organizing itself will be understood and practiced for at least the next generation....

That was followed up by a New Times OP ED Report about the strange and changing political scene here in the Red Zone others call Colorado Springs, CO.

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — I didn't hook up people to electronic monitoring devices, nothing to measure leg trickles and blood-sugar spikes in response to off-key talking points.

I had no magic maps, no demographic weighting formulas. I simply went to the heart of one of the fastest-growing, most Republican counties in the land — as red as rib-eye steak on the e-coli side of raw — and wandered aimlessly, like John McCain in Tuesday's debate.

Here in Colorado Springs — the Vatican of evangelical political power, home to the Air Force Academy and a community where optimism usually matches the sunrise glow at the base of Pikes Peak – you can see what will happen in less than a month.

My friends: it's not good for Senator McCain.

"As a small business owner, it's very hard to watch a lifetime of hard work and savings just wither away in the last two weeks," said Jan Martin, a native of this more-than-mile-high city, and a lifelong Republican. "The debate on Tuesday night has, if anything, bolstered my opinion."

So Jan Martin, who also serves on the city council, will cross party lines in less than a month and vote Barack Obama for president, she said. She's not leaving the Republican party – she's deserting the nominee.

Unfortunately all is not good news for Colorado as the NY Times has a news piece that includes our state in unlawfully purging voter rolls. This is beyond the reported declaration that 35,000 new registrants were deemed incomplete and ineligible, this includes sytematic purging of roles beyond death or moving rates.

Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least six swing states have been removed from the rolls or have been blocked from registering in ways that appear to violate federal law, according to a review of state records and Social Security data by The New York Times...Still, because Democrats have been more aggressive at registering new voters this year, according to state election officials, any heightened screening of new applications may affect their party’s supporters disproportionately. The screening or trimming of voter registration lists in the six states: Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina--could also result in problems at the polls on Election Day: people who have been removed from the rolls are likely to show up only to be challenged by political party officials or election workers, resulting in confusion, long lines and heated tempers....

The six swing states seem to be in violation of federal law in two ways. Michigan and Colorado are removing voters from the rolls within 90 days of a federal election, which is not allowed except when voters die, notify the authorities that they have moved out of state, or have been declared unfit to vote....

In three states — Colorado, Louisiana and Michigan — the number of people purged from the election rolls since Aug. 1 far exceeds the number who may have died or relocated during that period.

States may be improperly removing voters who have moved within the state, election experts said, or who are considered inactive because they have failed to vote in two consecutive federal elections. For example, major voter registration drives have been held this year in Colorado, which has also had a significant population increase since the last presidential election, but the state has recorded a net loss of nearly 100,000 voters from its rolls since 2004...In Colorado, some 37,000 people were removed from the rolls in the three weeks after July 21. During that time, about 5,100 people moved out of the state and about 2,400 died, according to postal data and death records.

I am going to finish on a high note where Politico.com pens a revealing piece stating that the upcoming election is actually a result of an "economic tsunami" worse than 1992 or 1980 and in my book mirrors 1932 where the nation was subjected to similar Republican orchastrated laissez faire speculation policies.

Three weeks of historic economic upheaval has done more than just tilt a handful of once-reliably Republican states in Barack Obama’s direction. Democratic strategists are now optimistic that the ongoing crisis could lead to a landslide Obama victory.

Four large states McCain once seemed well-positioned to win—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida—have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states—a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events—he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes.

Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states. And if Obama actually captured all four states, it would almost certainly signal a strong electoral tide that would likely sweep the Southwestern swing states—Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada—not to mention battlegrounds from New Hampshire to Iowa to Missouri....“Now it’s a whole different world,” Maslin said. “The economy is way beyond 1992. In 1980, it was Iran hostage crisis and the economy. I’ve never seen an issue take this kind of prominence.”

Gallup finds that 69 percent of Americans believe the economy is the most important issue facing the nation. The second most cited issue, the war in Iraq, is named by only 11 percent of voters.

Bill Clinton’s former pollster Doug Schoen calls this the “economic tsunami.”

And it’s this tsunami that has altered the electoral map in a way that Obama himself could not.

“The Obama campaign did a lot of important foundation work to expand the Democratic map. And I give them credit for that,” Maslin said. “But the real expansion of the map is coming from an outside event, namely the economy, and not the tactics of the Obama campaign.

“Obama has not changed the map,” Schoen said. The map has changed because, in light of the economic turmoil, “McCain has become an almost unacceptable alternative” to President Bush.

Only one in four Americans have a positive view of the president, according to Gallup, the lowest rating of Bush’s presidency. That is only one point above Richard Nixon’s floor, 24 percent—which he registered when disgrace forced the first presidential resignation—and just three points higher than the lowest public approval ever, which was notched by Harry Truman in 1952 during the Korean War.

Only 9 percent of Americans are “satisfied” with the direction of the United States, the lowest level since the question was first asked by the Gallup Poll in the late 1970s.

"Mr Friends"...I'LL say it again..."My Friends" did McCain essentially capitulate last night?

"My Friends", we heard in practically every sentence that McCain expressed last night in what was billed his "last great hope" to knock out Obama. In fact across America's college campuses there is a new binge drinking game that uses the debates as their gaming compass...repeated words or phrases---both used by the Republicans. In Palin's case it is of course the word "Maverick" and in McCain's case, it is "My Friends". The trouble is that by the time the debate reaches 1/2 hour into its 90 minute set, most of those college participates are stone drunk, but of course that is the purpose of the binge drinking game.

The thing is McCain's front-loaded expectations were that he was going to prosecute Obama in person and yet he acted like the Lion in the "Wizard of Oz" when first confronting the mythical Wizard--- running away---"My Friends". McCain didn't bring any of his smears and accusations recently used in his campaign narrative into last night's debate. My reaction after the fact was that he was unwilling or UNABLE to actually speak them to Obama's face. Why? Because he and all of us intuitively knew he couldn't get away with it in front of a serious and non partisan audience like he could with a KOOL-AID drinking political rally.

Actually what really happened: Remember actions speak louder than words and in a political campaign words of candidates are actions. McCain basically CONCEDED the election last night---by his action of not speaking smears to Obama's face. McCain failed to accuse Obama of all that his VP choice now has done on the campaign stump referencing Ayers, Wright and Rezko. Basically McCain couldn't bring himself to do what his Sarahcuda can. His jabs were half-hearted repeats of his basic stump speech---My Friends but there was not haymaker blow on national national TV n prime time so in short he capitulated. So in short he is going to play the good cop/bad cop with his attack pit-bull with lipstick letting her destroy her national political reputation while he licks his old wounds. But don't take my word for this observation look at the Right wing press's reaction.

• Weekly Standard: "John McCain had a very strong debate tonight. It's too bad for him that it came on a night when Barack Obama was nearly flawless."
• 
  
• Slate: "Foreign policy didn't come up much in tonight's presidential debate; but when it did, Sen. John McCain--whose strengths lie in this realm--seemed surprisingly unsteady while Sen. Barack Obama came off as more sure-footed than he did in the first contest."

But the biggest blow was when the candidate who was "green behind the ears" landed a combination that McCain will not be able to recover. TNR's Schreiber described it perfectly:

[T] the key point in the debate when McCain repeatedly tried to point himself forward as the 'cool hand' at the tiller, appearing either oblivious or indifferent to the fact that the last three weeks have made 'steady' one of the last words a lot of people associates with John McCain. As I wrote in the live blog, "Is McCain suddenly running against himself?". (See the video here.) Let's pick it up from Noam ...

More importantly, I thought the Pakistan exchange was the moment when son overtook father in the Oedipal drama that's been a subtext of this campaign. After Obama gave his initial response, McCain pressed the absurd line that his opponent didn't understand talking softly while carrying a big stick--that he was, in other words, erratic.

Coming from a candidate whose name has been synonymous with "erratic" these last several weeks, it left McCain dangerously exposed, and Obama didn't miss with his counterpunch. "This is the guy who sang, 'Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran,' who called for the annihilation of North Korea. That I don't think is an example of 'speaking softly,'" he said. "This is the person who, after we had--we hadn't even finished Afghanistan, where he said, 'Next up, Baghdad.'" As if to add insult to injury, Obama nearly straight-armed McCain when he tried to interrupt, underscoring not only his intellectual advantages but also his physical ones.

So as the nation's drinking game was coming to a close with the final "My Friends, McCain's campaign narrative was on the floor receiving a ten-count joining many college students in fraternities, sororities and dorms across America who were already so incoherent to hear on their collective floors.

Box out beginning....growing thuggery politics and Naomi's warning

The "Long Strange Trip", I am now using a a metaphor to describe this bloodless "Campaign for Change" that includes the Movement to elect Barack Obama, President is now down to the lynch pin point---OHIO---OHIO---OHIO. Over the weekend the NBC/WSJ Poll in Ohio is now showing that Obama has developed a 51% to 45% where Independents are rushing to Obama's side. This is confirmed by concurrent poll conducted by CNN in Ohio, Obama 51% to 48%.

Essentially both CNN and MSNBC have projected that Obama has 264 electoral votes in the bank with lock and leaning states that are outside the margin of error consistently where the toss up states are now down to eight (8): NV, CO, MO, IN, OH, FL VA, & NC. Nevada is the wild card since it possesses five (5) electoral votes and brings the Obama total to 269 and would move the election to the House of Representatives. This is why Palin visited Nebraska as that state like Maine elects Electoral College elcctors by Congressional District and not statewide. In CD 2 (Omaha) the race remains relatively close where McCain holds a 5 point lead without any ground game but with a strong Obama ground organization working under the radar. Winning Nevada and the one electoral vote in Nebraska brings him to 270.

But that is not the winning formula, that is commando raid. A major political campaign is much like a military campaign. Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada are actually flanking moves. In that context, Colorado Springs is on the edge of the flanking move as we are actually playing offense cutting into the base of the opposition and forcing them to use resources here that are needed in pressure points they need to win like Ohio and Florida. Except now McCain can't lose Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina (which were strong Bush states) either. But back to Ohio and Florida. That is their center line and it is about to break.

Now actions speak louder than words and words are the actions in a political campaign. It is not a coincidence that suddenly over the weekend as the US is embroiled in a economic meltdown or PANIC, that McCain wants to not talk about it. What they want to talk about is character and cultural issues they believe is Obama's weakness in Ohio, but also Pennsylvania, Florida and possibly Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia. Except the nation is not buying it or didn't when Hillary tried to use. Of course the Republicans are sleazier at it than the Clinton's. What makes it dangerous is how the fringe on that part of society.

INCITING MOB RULE?

Yesterday near my parents home in Florida, Palin held a "hate rally" that started to show an ugliness or mob mentality that mirrors the disease that Milisovec unleashed in the former Yugoslavia. Dana Milbank of the Washington Post made this report, (read the whole thing here):

Not only has Palin discovered the New York Times, she was even able to extract a few small misleading facts from an article. Citing her source like a fifth grader giving her first book report, she told the audience that Bil Ayers was a member of the Weather Underground and that Barack Obama knew him forty years later. Her audience responded with the conditioned Booos required to recieve more winks and nuggets of hate. But they went a bit further than that:

Worse, Palin's routine attacks on the media have begun to spill into ugliness. In Clearwater, arriving reporters were greeted with shouts and taunts by the crowd of about 3,000. Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric's questions for her "less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media." At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thunder sticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African American sound man for a network and told him, "Sit down, boy."

Rabid hate of the media by extreme right wing voters isn't new, of course. But I think racist insults hurled at a sound man is a new low for them. Then it got worse:

The reception had been better in Clearwater, where Palin, speaking to a sea of "Palin Power" and "Sarahcuda" T-shirts, tried to link Obama to the 1960s Weather Underground. "One of his earliest supporters is a man named Bill Ayers," she said. ("Boooo!" said the crowd.) "And, according to the New York Times, he was a domestic terrorist and part of a group that, quote, 'launched a campaign of bombings that would target the Pentagon and our U.S. Capitol,' " she continued. ("Boooo!" the crowd repeated.)

"Kill him!" proposed one man in the audience.

Yeah. That's where this Palin thing is going. Sure, these were just a few voices. But they evidently felt comfortable enough at a Palin rally to openly advocate assassination. McCain-Palin seems ready to associate with the lowest of the low (and if you read the article, they are promising to get even uglier in the future).

Yesterday as gathered outside Centennial Hall to cast our ballots an individual walking by shouted at us that "Obama is going to die". This is not an abstract issue. By the way you can view our casting on KRDO in their video stories.

HOW CLOSE ARE WE?

Now place all of this in the context that Naomi Wolf an author who has written that this nation is close to outright fascism and a potential coup where even if Obama is voted in the election will be vacated. Here is here riveting You Tube interview of here new book GIVE ME LIBERTY.

Obama yard signs are in mass in the Colorado Springs HQ

4000 Obama Yards signs are in the Colorado Office for those who want to spend $5.00.

218 So. Limit St.

No more moaning or complaining

Voted Today and of course some controversy, other voter reg news, polls and counterpunches

This morning seventeen Obama supporters showed up before 8:00 AM at the El Paso County Clerk's office and in the presence of KRDO's Channel 13 camera's cast their ballots. Naturally there was some controversy in that we all were dressed and decked out in Obama garb and the Elections Department Supervisor took issue and said we needed to cover them up or take them off. Of course there were no 100 foot signs BECAUSE THERE IS NO POLLING GOING ON, MERELY the receiving of ballots being hand delivered. But that does not mean that Balink and his incompentent staff got another legal instruction incorrect. Maday and I informed the Obama team to contact the lawyers who will be meeting with Mr. Balink today. KRDO's story quoted Mike:

The first El Paso County votes have been cast in this election. A group of eager voters got their ballots over the weekend, filled them out and showed up early at Centennial Hall Monday to turn them in. "It's exciting, and I think we're part of history," says Mike Maday who cast his ballot Monday, "this election is going to make history and it's great to be one of the first people to cast a ballot."

More than 120,000 mail-in ballots are already in the hands of El Paso County residents. More people than ever are choosing to mail in. "Every ballot will have at least 42 items," says El Paso County Clerk and Recorder Bob Balink, "it'll take a voter longer than ever to vote this ballot."

"With the initiatives on the ballot, it takes a lot of time, maybe 45 minutes, to vote your ballot," says Maday, "we wanted to get it done early, we wanted to hand it in early so we don't have to worry about that." Now, the Clerk and Recorder's Office is busy processing the final voter registrations and the mail-in requests that will continue coming in until the end of the month.

A piece of information for Mr. "Bob" Balink, you are on the national spotlight for any and all voter suppression, voter intimidation or voter misinformation. No more game Mr. Balink.

VOTER REGISTRATION INFORMATION

Other news regarding voter registration is that any currently registered voter who needs to update (address change or name change in case you got married or legally changed your name or want to declare a new party affiliation), any update you have until October 28th to submit that form, the same for requesting a MAIL-In Ballot. If you did already submit a new registration but think it was done incorrectly due to a clerical error, you should contact the Obama Campaign Office---all is not lost.

POLLS

Today the USA TODAY released a stunning poll that insinuates a fundamental shift in the electorate where young voters are registering in record numbers and supporting Obama almost 2-to-1.

USA TODAY/MTV/Gallup Poll of registered voters 18 to 29 years old shows Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain by 61%-32%, the most lopsided contest within an age group in any presidential election in modern times. Obama's margin is overwhelming across four groups of younger voters, divided by their engagement in the election, their optimism about the future and other factors.

Some Republicans fear that whatever the outcome Nov. 4, movement of this generation to Obama could set political views through their lifetimes, reverberating in future elections.

"This is the equivalent of the Reagan brigades, where a whole class of people identify with a politician," says Dan Bartlett, a veteran of the Bush White House, calling it "a real wake-up call" for the GOP. Bartlett, 37, grew up during Reagan's presidency, which begat a generation of young conservatives.

Also MSNBC First Read are holding that Obama how has 264 electoral votes banked and the entire map is moving in his direction.

Obama at 264: A week after Obama's poll numbers spiked in battleground states and after McCain's campaign announced it was retreating from Michigan, Obama has opened up a nearly 100-point electoral-vote lead, according to NBC’s new map. Obama now has a 264-174 advantage over McCain, up from his 212-174 edge last week. The changes are all in Obama’s direction: We’ve moved Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from Toss-up to Lean Obama. Also, every single Toss-up state is now a red state, and we are close to moving another red state -- Missouri -- to the Toss-up column. But let's remember: This is where the RACE IS RIGHT NOW, not where we expect the race to be in a month. And we move a state into lean when we believe there's significant evidence based on our reporting and a few of the public polls (we trust) that a candidate has a lead of five points or more.

• Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (157 electoral votes)
• Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, OR, PA, WA, WI (107 votes)
• Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, NV, NC, OH, VA (100 votes)
• Lean McCain: MO, MT (14 votes)
• Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)

Other polls that are notable come from battleground state Virginia & New Hampshire. With each of these revelations based on the MSNBC and FOX News Map essentially begin to put the nails in McCain's Campaign coffin in that with Virginia Obama is now over the top.

• Virginia Survey USA Obama 53% McCain 43%
  
• Virginia Suffolk Obama 51% McCain 39%
  
• New Hampshire Survey USA Obama 53% McCain 40%
  

COUNTER-PUNCHES

You bring up the BS of Ayres connection and Obama counters with the real Keating 5 and a 15 minute online documentary. Here is the link to keatingeconomics.com. Talking Points Memo describe the McCain campaign theme as total slime and sleeze.

McCain rallies start in referring to Obama as Barack Hussein Obama.

Late Update: We're here at TPM World HQ listening to McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds be interviewed by Andrea Mitchell. And the subtext of even Mitchell's questions seem to be that McCain is pretty much wall-to-wall sleaze at this point. One interesting thing to consider is that we may be on the verge of seeing McCain not only lose the presidency but his entire reputation as well. He'll lose everything but the houses and the fancy lifestyle. Joe Klein has a run-down on all McCain's latest sleaze.

And this little tidbit fell out of the drawer in the McCain Campaign---CUTTING MEDICARE AND MEDICAID! McCain adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin tells the Wall St. Journal that McCain would pay for the tax credits in his health plan with deep cuts in Medicare and Medicaid.

John McCain would pay for his health plan with major reductions to Medicare and Medicaid, a top aide said, in a move that independent analysts estimate could result in cuts of $1.3 trillion over 10 years to the government programs.

I told my mother this on the phone today and she went silent.

Part One of the Ground Game coming to an end---Obama winning the Voter Registration Battle

Today at the time of this posting I will be turning in my ballot, an early vote for the IL Senator Barack Obama for President. (Link to the CO-El Paso County sample ballot here.) As the acclaimed rock band, The Grateful Dead titled one of their few pop singles, "What a Long Strange Trip its Been", this Campaign for real Change has been as strange as the lyrical story described by the late Jerry Garcia in song. The campaign has meshed so many components within our collective human paths. Like the majority of its record number of volunteers who are mostly white, middle-aged college-educated, many previously inactive voters--some of them even sporadic or occassional voters and yet surprisingly motivated and capable. While on the other hand teh campaign's biggest share of this year's electorate are young voters, some being first timers who are under the age of 35.

Strange in that Obama, with his Arabic surname, African-American immigrant father and lower middle class white American mother being the most strangest of pedigree backgrounds for an American President. History tells us that, by in large, most American Presidents are descendents of an English ancestry, often geneologies going back to pre-Revolution years. Yet this is the 21st Century and a third voting generation since the advent of the age of television. This is why the Hillary camp in its last gasp of political campaign narratives where they attempted to describe Obama as a figure that was "not one of us" and thereby risky. Now the final 30 days of a losing McCain Campaign is taking a similar tack, as a last desperate measure to turn a national decision that is predicated by substantive policy and governing change to one of personal character on the negative.

Tomorrow for many states like Colorado voter registration will end, locking in the voter universe where the campaign noticably will shift on the ground from capacity building, persuasion and voter gathering to final persuasion and GET OUT THE VOTE. (Mine will be in as with many others so with each passing day that universe shrinks regardless of the debates, advertisements, speeches, or external events can take away or change those votes---not even death, so vote early if you are smart.) With that it appears certain that the Obama Campaign, supported by the Democratic Party has won the new voter registration battle. The Washington Post Reports in their Sunday edition:

In the past year, the rolls have expanded by about 4 million voters in a dozen key states -- 11 Obama targets that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 (Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico) plus Pennsylvania, the largest state carried by Sen. John Kerry that Sen. John McCain is targeting.

• Florida Democrat registration gains this year are more than double those made by the GOP where 800,000 voters have been added, 316,000 Democrats to 129,000 GOP while 155,000 became independents.
• Colorado it is 4-to-1, Democratic registration was up by 80,000, exceeding the gain of 28,000 unaffiliated voters and 21,000 Republicans.
• Nevada also the ratio is 4-to-1, where they have added 91,000 people to the rolls, where now the GOP trails the Democrats by 81,000.
• North Carolina it is 6-to-1, Democrats adding 208,000 voters the GOP bringing in 34,000 voters and 148,000 new independents. A disproportionate share of the new voters here are minorities, 01/01.08 white voters outnumbered blacks 4-to-1, and Hispanic voters 10-to-1, yet 146,000 black and Hispanic voters were added representingd nearly 75% of the growth among white voters.
• In Virginia with nonpartisan registration, the trend is clear --310,000 new voters, a disproportionate share live in Democratic strongholds, where increases of 10% in Arlington County, Alexandria, Norfolk, Newport News and Richmond, which combined have added 58,000 voters.
• In Pennsylvania there were 474,000 new Democrats added to the rolls -- while the GOP rolls actually lost 38,000 voters. Back in 2004, there were 357,000 Democrats added and 66,000 Republicans.
• In Missouri, registration is also nonpartisan, roughly 200,000 new registrations this year in greater St. Louis and suburban St. Louis County now leaning Democratic and 20% of the state's vote.
• New Mexico, (Bush won by 6,000 votes in 2004), Democrats have added 40,000 voters since last year, compared with 12,000 Republicans.
• Michigan has registered an increase of 160,000 voters this year.

The Obama campaign says it expects the numbers of new voters in swing states to swell even more later this month as elections offices process the tens of thousands of registrations still pouring in. "This a lesson we learned. The old-fashioned way of registering voters was to stand on the corner of the street, stand on the campus quad and register one by one, which we still do," said Jon Carson, the campaign's national field director. "But another important component is getting people the information they need to participate."

Other compliments to the Obama Campaign efforts are organizations that have been registering hundreds of thousands on their own, such as Democracia USA, (registrating Hispanic voters), ACORN (focusing on poverty stricken areas), Women's Voices, (seeking out the women vote specifically the unmarried) and Move On, finding progressives and disenfranchised liberals. Overall, on the whole this year's registration results are part of a broader shift since the last election and away from the Republican Party, particularly among younger and Hispanic voters and among college-educated professionals, especially in previous GOP strongholds such as in states like New Hampshire, Colorado, and the suburbs of Philadelphia and Northern Virginia.

The Obama campaign predicts that 80 percent of the voters it is registering will support the Democrat, and that 75 percent will turn out, a rate it bases on turnout during the primaries. That means that for every 100,000 voters it registers, it would net a 45,000-vote edge on Election Day. Gary Pearce, the North Carolina consultant, speculated that this year's election might shatter some of those expectations, based on the energy he is seeing and the reach of Obama's get-out-the-vote operation there. "It's the enthusiasm gap," he said. He added: "They'll get a lot of them out on Election Day. I'm not an organization guy -- I'm skeptical of the people who think the organization is going to turn it all. But they've made me a believer."

TRANSLATED IT ALL MEANS---OBAMA IS LEADING

Don't count any chickens just yet but what the external polling doesn't tell you what internal voter contact data does is reflected in campaign behavior and not words. Last week we witnessed McCain abandon Michigan after having concentrated on the state, even holding its first campaign stop there after their RNC Convention. I wondered why they weren't contesting Minnesota either as recent polls showed a close race. Well it appears that their internals were reflected in the most recent poll conducted by the Minneapolis Star Tribune that has Obama up 55% to 37% in a traditional strong Democratic state. Well that told me why he didn't move any resources there.

Well on the Sunday talk show circuit Karl Rove held that Obama held a 273 electoral lead in the projected FOX News Map. On NBC's Meet the Press Chuck Todd held that Obama had 264 electoral votes, (Karl is giving Colorado to Obama while NBC is holding out that it remains a toss up).

What is strange is that the McCain campaign sent Sarah "I have to get back to you" Palin to Nebraska which is another Red State that has not been contested since William Jennings Bryan. is it because Nebraska splits its electoral votes by Congressional district, and the Obama camp has been making a play for this area especially in Omaha. Actions speak louder than words!

Finally the Palin soap opera now begins to turn the page with some more SNL material brewing, (the best comedy skit yet) . It appears that Palin failed to pay income taxes on per diem receipts she charged the State of Alaska for working at home. It is only $17,000 but then again one IRS expert stated:

"This is a lady who screams about everyone in federal government taking advantage, and she's taking every advantage she can," said Sheldon Cohen, IRS commissioner in the Johnson administration. "They are milking every possible deduction. They have a right to, if it's legitimate. The question is, is he in the racing business or is it a hobby?" (Reference to husband's snowmobile racing where odd Palin had total receipts from the fishing and snowmachine racing of: Todd Palin offset his $17,000 gross receipts for snowmachine racing by claiming $10,858 in depreciation, $2,425 for car and truck expenses and $1,559 for supplies. An additional $11,405 was claimed for "other," which included fuel, entry fees, equipment parts, repairs and maintenance, cell phone, memberships, "sponsorship apprec" and "gear." in 2006 he claimed $48,082 in income but after deductions his net income was $10,164.

Oh but there is more on the "Maverick Game" Palin. (BTW a debate drinking game has arisen in America where you must take a drink everytime Palin mentions maverick.) It appears that Trooper-gate investigation will continue where now Alaska employees are being compeled to honor the subpoenas:

On the heels of the dismissal of the Alaska attorney general's suit to quash subpoenas issued in the legislature's Trooper-Gate investigation, seven subpoenaed state employees who had previously said they would not cooperate with the probe have now agreed to testify.

From the Anchorage Daily News:

"Despite my initial concerns about the subpoenas, we respect the court's decision to defer to the Legislature," [Alaska Attorney General Talis] Colberg said. "We are working with Senator Hollis French to arrange for the testimony of the seven state employee plaintiffs."

CAST YOUR MIB VOTE TOMORROW!

Yesterday our family received their MAIL -IN (MIB) Ballot from the esteemed and [in]compentent El Paso County's Bob Balink led County Clerk's office. And before the Cubs played and lost their 13 straight post season, I filled it out in dressed in my Obama garb! Yes it is lawful to electioneer in your own home while casting your vote with a MIB, even in the Red Zone of Colorado Springs! The entire effort took over twenty-five minutes (25 min) where even though I was previous prepared with my ballot initiative choices it still took some time.

Link to a El Paso County Ballot here

Mike Maday, our National Delegate and Democratic Party House District Chairperson and partner in leading our local Obama Movement since the summer of 2007 said it took him and his wife Nancy over an hour. Now for you all resistent traditionalists who desire to vote at the polls on election day, you will now understand why the line will not move even after you have been in it for over two hours. Please apply for a MIB!

Tomorrow to signify our citizery franchise right in America, and also celebrate our Obama Movement we are gathering in mass at 7:45 AM to personally deliver our MIB's to the County Clerk's Office when it opens at 8:00 AM. The County Clerk is located on Cascade Avenue in downtown Colorado Springs and we have invited the press and media where they have positively RSVP'd. So if you want to be on TV or quoted in the newspaper be there and cast your ballot a month before election day. And furthermore it is lawful to where your Obama gear as it is not a polling place (yet) merely a receiving place.

VOTER SUPRESSION IN COLORADO under way!

John Morris, the Chairman of the El Paso County Democratic Party told me on the phone that Secretary of State Mike Coffman, now also a candidate for a Congressional Seat, has now deemed 35,000 (out of a possible 120,000+) new registrations invalid due to a clerical error or interpretation of instruction in providing residence status AFTER THE FACT!

In short the CO voter registration form asks for a driver's license number, state-issued identification number, or social security number as proof of identity (link to form)

The Secretary of State's office is now telling voters they must have checked a box which indicates they do not have a driver's license or state ID card, in order for the social security number to be sufficient.

The sentence in the form states:

"Check here if you do not have a driver's license or state-issued identification card". It does not say "at all" or "with you.

This sentence of course is vague, and could be interpreted by each registrar differently. When people have been trained (like me) to do voter registration by his office for many months, they have been told the box only needs to be checked if the person does not have a driver's license or state identification card AT ALL.

On the Secretary of State website, there is a link to a PDF document titled "Registration Information for New Voters". After a list of documents allowable for establishing identification, it continues:

Or you may provide one of the following numbers without providing a physical copy of the number:

• Valid Colorado Driver’s License number
• Valid Colorado Department of Revenue Identification number
• At least the four last digits of the voter’s Social Security number

According to reports, the Secretary of State's office has recently deemed up to 35,000 (this number was told to me last night from John Morris) of these new registrations invalid, despite the fact they have been completed as instructed!

According to Secretary of State's Coffman's new interpretation, the form is invalid if you are honest and do not check the box saying you do not have a driver's license (because you do - it is just not with you). If you were dishonest and said you didn't have a driver's license, in order to use the social security number option, you may get away with it. Of course this flies in the face of court rulings that systemic purges of voter roles cannot be conducted 90 prior to elections.

Of course pending lawsuits are spreading. MEANWHILE, voter registration in Colorado ends at the close of business on Monday, October 6th. Mail-in ballots, the choice of most of the new voters registered this year, are scheduled to be sent out October 6th, as well.

The national press can contact him at his campaign office at (303) 791-6453 or info@coffmanforcongress.com or the elections office at (303) 894-2200 ext. 6307 elections@sos.state.co.us .

VP Debate...America speaking louder than pundits, McCain campaign disconnect and voter registrations

Back in January when I was attempting to help our local party prepare for the Super Tuesday Caucus I kept asking other party officials what was the previous record of turnout and their response was indifference ignorance---"They simply didn't know, nor care." Within a week there seemed to panic knowing that the facilities they had secured to hold a democratic process would be inadequate, as well as their training of party volunteers to manage those meetings was wholly underwhelming. When they appointed an old timer official to oversee a 13-precinct Caucus location the House District Chairperson who should have been assigned except that he was the Volunteer Leader of the Obama Campaign and I his able lieutenant we feared the oncoming chaos. She then told us in all confidence that she would show up a 1/2 hour beforehand and it would be a breeze.

That week I fortunately got the facilities switched where we got the cafeteria and the GOP the library when I truthfully terrorized the school administrators that we were expecting 300-400 to show up and the library held 75. That evening Mike and I showed up two hours previous to the start time and got things organized. By 6 PM we had over a hundred voters and by the time the location manager showed up we had over 200 processed and another 100 or so in lines. She freaked out and we had to silently inform her that this was a mutiny and we had it covered.

This ignorance I have seen throughout the election from news reporting to party and nominating processes and basic election processes. Why, because people are actually paying attention and they are motivated. Last night was another example as much of America tuned in presumably to see a car wreck like the Indy-500 but found a genuine political debate. When it was done the assessments began and to the surprise of the media and their pundits, America has stated that the boring, driven policy wok Joe Biden won in their minds and not the pundits. They all called it a tie but from the early polls of CBS and CNN Biden was the clear winner.

CNN: Though her performance during the 90-minute debate surprised many who were hoping of some gaffe, but a CNN poll showed that debate had done little to help her image with only 36 per cent of respondents favouring her against 51 per cent for Biden.

CBS News and Knowledge Networks have conducted a nationally representative poll of 473 uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight's vice presidential debate. Forty-six percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed say Democrat Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Republican Sarah Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie.

Eighteen percent of previously uncommitted percent say they are now committed to the Obama-Biden ticket. Ten percent say they are now committed to McCain-Palin. Seventy-one percent are still uncommitted.

Today the on line polls albeit unscientifically sampled are so big a universe they also demonstrate how people view events like these in respective audiences. In each of these polls Biden is said to have won except for the Drudge Report and CO Springs KRDO.

• L.A. Times poll
• NBC poll
• CNN poll
  
• AOL poll
• Wall Street Journal poll
• Guardian poll
• Politico poll
• Townhall poll
• Fox News poll
• The Drudge Report poll
• Rocky Mountain News
• Denver News 9
• Denver News 4
• CO Springs KRDO

So what gives? History repeats itself until it doesn't. Meaning this year politically history is not repeating itself. Consequently in the final analysis why Biden even though Palin didn't fall flat on her face in St. Louis? She offered no substance, no genuine policy difference merely the persuasion technique a sales executive does when trying to sell something that does not possess what the customer now wants. She talked in circles, exclaimed more tax cuts and empty philos that we want government out of the way while most people now inherently know that government---good government---is the only path to solution because the government is us.

McCain Campaign Disconnects

Yesterday the McCain campaign announced it was pulling out of Michigan to concentrate on Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia. Interestingly these were the states that Bush won in 2004 while coincidentally not mentioning New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Iowa or Minnesota. Now the math just doesn't add up. Bush won three Inner Mountain States; New Mexico & Iowa (now being locked up or a loss of 12 votes) plus Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina and (29 electoral votes). With this math McCain cannot win. Right now the electoral vote watchers have Obama here:

IN THE BANK (STRONG DEM SUPPORT)

• CA(55), NY (31), IL (21), NJ(15), MA(12), MD(10), CT(7) IA (7), OR(7), NH(4), HI(4), RI(4), DE(3), DC(3) = 182 Electoral Votes

States trending to Locks (Weak Dem Support)

• PA(21), MI(17), WA(11), WI(10), MN(10), NM(5), ME(4) = 78 votes

STATES LEANING TO OBAMA (battleground states trending to Obama)

• FL(27), OH(20), VA(13), CO(9), NV(5), NH(4) = 78 votes

STATE that is a TOSS UP

• NC(15)

STATES LEANING TO McCAIN (new battleground states trending away from McCain)

• IN(11), MO(11) = 22 votes

STATES trending to McCain Locks (Weak Rep Support)

• TX(34), GA(15), MS(6), WV(5), MT(3) = 63 votes
  

STATES in the Bank for McCain (Strong Republican Support)

• TN(11), AZ(10), AL(9), LA(9), KY(8), SC(8), OK(7), AR(6), KS(6), UT(5), NE(5), ID(4), SD(3), ND(3), WY(3), AK(3) = 100 votes

Right now McCain could consider he has 163 votes and if IN and MO where he holds 1-2 point leads fall away where is he going to pick up any support? Even if he narrowly wins IN & MO that brings him to 185 electoral votes and 85 votes short. If he prevails in a recount in NC it brings him to 200 or 70 short. Now those are three of the states he mentioned he was concentrating. Then he has to run the table on these states: OH, FL, VA (60 votes) and still ten votes short. This is why they are focused on PA which is now trending to a lock to Obama. He could try to win in WI or MN and that would provide him exactly 270.

But here is the trouble with the math, there can be no losses in MO, IN, NC, OH, FL, VA, or PA in gaining 117 votes. It appears that CO, NM, or NV does not matter by themselves. But my guess is that as the try in Pennsylvania to turn things around as it is a state demographically they think they might exploit with racism and Catholics. Here is the problem to their mythology:

Pennsylvania Polls

• Morning Tracking Poll Obama 50% McCain 41%
• Quinnipeac Obama 54% McCain 39%
• FOX/Rasmussen Obama 51% McCain 42%

Florida Polls

• CNN/TIME Obama 51% McCain 47%
• Quinnipeac Obama 51% McCain 43%
• FOX/Rasmussen Obama 47% McCain 47%
  

So what is the math telling you. McCain like Hillary Clinton's math is inevitable without a stunning game changing event. This is why Fivethirtyeight.com/ is saying that if the current trend continues Obama will win in what will be considered a MANDATE---331 electoral votes to McCain 207. So in reality Obama's campaign has corraled McCain into three states he needs to play offense (OH, PA & FL), one that he is trending badly and one that is dripping through his fingers. In four other states where he was unprepared he must play defense, (NC, MO, IN & VA) where I don't think they got their cheating ways embedded in. Because of this they are leaving their flanks open in CO, NM and NV. So when Pennsylvania fails to respond will then McCain come looking to Nevada and Colorado in is rash, almost knee jerk last gasp reaction.

What to expect in PA, VA and probably CO, IN, MO, OH, FL and NC. Bible belt scorched earth culture tactics. Rev Wright all over again---except thank you to Hillary for innoculating them already. This will fall on deaf ears except to his 33% base. Then there will be the abortion ads, which are already being run in Virginia---baby killers. There will be all sorts of cultural fear mongering, from teachers politicking in the class rooms to Supreme Court fears and sex education. With this last gasp move we will see the last of McCain's reputation.

POLL WATCHING IN EL PASO COUNTY COLORADO

Yesterday I made my phone call to the Elections department to get an update on the voter registrations. El Paso County is the second largest voting county in Colorado but old trends are changing where for years there were two registered Republicans for every Democrat. A small trend began in the beginning of the year where by far the monopoly of the local Republican Party on registrating voters has been stemmed. The Secretary of State reports the following:

....................Rep's.......... Dem's ...........Unaffiliated
1/25/08...... 153,532 ......68,689 ..........108,406
6/30/08 ......155,558...... 72,590...........112,630
7/31/08...... 157,047....... 74,774..........113,699
9/02/08...... 157,998....... 75,241..........112,665
10/02/08.... 163,203........ 81,881..........119,085
% ..................44.6%..........22.2%...........32.5%
Ttl Voters 365, 899............ (9% increase)

Or you can translate the following:

....................Rep's.............. Dem's.......... Unaffilied's
06/30/08... + 2026........... +3901............. +4224
7/30/08..... +1489............ +2184............. +1069
09/02/08.... +957............... +469............. (- 1034)
10/02.08.... +5205............. +6640.............. +6420


Total.......... +9677............ +13194............. +10679

% increase.. +6%................. +17%................. + 9%

BREAKING NEWS: McCain pulling out of Michigan, 60% say NOT Qualified!

What can be only viewed as a sign of how rapidly the race is shifting Evan Tracey, who tracks national ad buys for the Campaign Media Analysis Group, stated that as of Tuesday, McCain was outspending Obama in Michigan. Now McCain is apparently pulling out!

John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play.

McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.

McCain's campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Also a McCain event planned for next week in Plymouth, Michigan, has been canceled. One can only look at the recent polls there have shown Obama extending what had been a small lead, with the economic crisis damaging an already sagging GOP brand in a state whose economy is in absolute tatters.

And a DEBATE PRIMER.....60% of the US say Palin NOT QUALIFIED!
ABC News released this poll today. What would Richard Dawson say on his old show Survey Says!

Skepticism about Sarah Palin has soared since she entered the national political stage, with six in 10 Americans now doubting her qualifications for office and fewer than half convinced of her grasp of complex issues. Just 35 percent say Palin has the experience it takes to serve effectively as president, down a dozen points since early September; 60 percent think not, up 15. And just 46 percent think Palin "understands complex issues," while 49 percent think she doesn't -- a poor assessment on this most basic qualification.

Obama reaches out to McCain, more Palin stumbling & bumbling and trends or movements?

I received an exchange of an ongoing email from an esteemed professor of my past who was a close colleague of Professor George Mosse who literally wrote the books on 20th Century fascism having escaped Berlin Germany in 1933 when he was 15 years as his father and grandfather were publishers and editors of Berlin's last remaining newspaper Berliner Tageblatt. This academic acquaintance has often stated that Mosse always believed that America was too big and diverse to allow fascism to take over. Now this esteemed scholar says he believes we have come to the brink of an outright takeover after Bush's eight years. Obama and his movement is final chance of a non-violent unpeeling but there will be much to do and great courage to expose this cabal and renew our Republic.

I know this seems to be radical for many, some in my family or friends network who are blind, disinterested, denying the reality or merely drunk with misguided nationalism but the reality is true. Fascism is the open partnering of big business (namely the financial industry), government and the military with absolute or one party authoritarian rule. How close are we when there is FOX News which also owns the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post where many Americans get all their one-party news, when the President and his Treasury sought to bail out and gift the remaining treasury to the Big Banks and Finance houses of Wall Street during a panic they engineered? When the military is steeped in two wars of conquest? When the propaganda exists that we are in a perpetual war against a cultural enemy abroad and within. When we have seen a systematic decoupling of the rule of law with the Attorney General's office even using prosecution for political purposes instead of criminal cases. When torture, kidnapping and secret prisons are not only administered but openly justified? Just a thought how important this election will be looking forward and back.

Now a Obama reach out and McCain's 'tell'

One of the great things about the Congress is that like most of our courts there is an audience, the gallery and of course CSPAN. CQ Politics of course was there for the historic bail out (err. Rescue and Recovery Plan) vote when this personal theater took place.

Let the record reflect that Barack Obama made the approach to John McCain tonight.

As the two shared the Senate floor tonight for the first time since they won their party nominations, Obama stood chatting with Democrats on his side of the aisle, and McCain stood on the Republican side of the aisle.

So Obama crossed over into enemy territory.

He walked over to where McCain was chatting with Republican Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida and Independent Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut. And he stretched out his arm and offered his hand to McCain.

McCain shook it, but with a “go away” look that no one could miss. He tried his best not to even look at Obama.

Finally, with a tight smile, McCain managed a greeting: “Good to see you.”

Obama got the message. He shook hands with Martinez and Lieberman — both of whom greeted him more warmly — and quickly beat a retreat back to the Democratic side.

As an inactive Executive Search professional who hunted for CEO's, COO's and CFO's non verbal language is often a bigger component to understanding a potential leader than the words which are well rehearsed and parsed during the evaluation process. Anger Management professionals hold that "anger is often an emotion that masks other emotions". His lack of eye contact suggests one of two things: Watch the Debate footage.

• He doesn't want to make eye contact because he is prone to losing control of his emotions if he deals directly with the other person---
• His anger masks fear and the eye contact may increase or substantiate the fear.

This was noticeable during the Republican primary debates even though the press did not pick up on it or failed to report it like now in the First Presidential Debate.

Another theory running around is the Monkey Ranking Theory: McCain was afraid of Obama. It was really clear where other clues are how much McCain blinked in the first half hour. Studies in monkey behavior illustrate that low ranking monkeys don't look at high ranking monkeys---Either way most perceive he is unwilling to acknowledge the opponent's legitimacy and/or is contemptuous of the opponent be it fear or something---whatever it actually is this is a serious character flaw and is disqualifier for leadership.

Just to pile on the evidence here is a video of McCain with the Des Moines Registar's Editorial Board where he almost blows a fuse....look for the nashing of the teeth.

And to think the RIGHT keeps trying to paint Obama and Biden as flawed?

Palin and her intellectual cavities.

By now even if you tried you probably were unable to avoid Palin's continuing interview with Katie Couric and her answer regarding Supreme Court cases. When asked to discuss another Supreme Court case that she might have disagreed with other than Roe versus Wade she basically said Roe! This is now a common even laughable if it were not that she is running for Vice President. Let me review:

• ABC News and Bush Doctrine....
• CBS News and 'The Bail Out Plan' and the reform it was going to do with Healthcare
• CBS News and 'I have to get back to you' on what McCain regulation initiatives.
• CBS News and what newspapers do you read; 'All of them'
• CBS News and Supreme Court.
• FOX News and Palin and Infomercial comparison
• Palin's Greatest Hits from Talking Points Memo
  

One could say that CBS is a stealth killer to the McCain-Palin ticket where they were skewered by the RIGHT over the Dan Rather story on Bush and the National Guard in 2004. We now know that CBS was set up in that story but as CBS allows Palin to talk and talk she is showing herself to be a blithering idiot of historical proportions. One item overlooked from the Couric interview is the Privacy question.

Not knowing any Supreme Court decision she opposes except for Roe v. Wade ain't great. That however PALES though, for the Christian right of probably a bigger goof in her latest segment with CBS. Immediately after saying what a terrible decision Roe was, Palin got a follow-up question from Couric:

"[Whether] she believes there's a constitutional 'right to privacy'.

And Palin said, 'yes', and then rambled on about States Rights....

Narrowly speaking, you canhold that a constitutional right to privacy exists while also opposing Roe v Wade. But the right to privacy, is one of the cornerstones of Roe. And in the public debate yes or no on the right to privacy is something pretty close to a proxy for your position on abortion rights. The thing is The bottom line is: Conservative opposition to a constitutional 'right to privacy' is a straight-up litmus test issue---period. Palin not only didn't have the right answer on the right to privacy it is cyrstal clear she'd never even heard of it before.

More Polls....a trend is now a movement

Obama now leads GOP rival McCain 49 percent to 40 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll. The nine-point spread marks an increase of four percentage points in Obama's lead from a CBS News/New York Times poll taken last week. Obama also leads by nine points among likely voters, 50 percent to 41 percent. Others below:

• 10/2: Obama 51%, McCain 44% Rasmussen
  
• 10/2: Obama 51%, McCain 40% Res. 2000
  
• 10/1: Obama 48%, McCain 44% Gallup
  
• 10/1: Obama 47%, McCain 42% Hotline/Diageo
  

BATTLEGOUND STATES

• 10/2 MI-Pres Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 41% PPP
  
• 10/02 NC-Pres Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 47% Rasmussen
• 10/01 WI-Pres Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 40% Str. Vision
• 10/02 FL-Pres Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 46% In/ADV
  
• 10/1 FL: Obama 46%, McCain 42% Suffolk
• 10/01 FL-Pres Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47% CNN
• 10/01 FL-Pres Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 43% Quinnipeac
• 10/1: IN: McCain 46%, Obama 45% Res. 2000

One thing of note is that after enjoying an 18 point lead back in the middle of September McCain's lead in the Peach State of Georgia is down to 6 points (In/ADV) This coincides with big movements in Missouri, Indiana and Nevada which are now considered battleground states. Is this the Palin effect where now CBS is reporting that 60% of the electorate is saying she is unqualified to be President this up from 51% recorded a week earlier in the PEW poll. My take is that this is the cascading effect of Palin revelations, economic is solid week and McCain's debate performance on top of the mendicity campaign theme.

35 Days left and McCain's campaign continues to fall why?

Personally I believe this election is far bigger in its societal and historical significance than the persons or personalities that are contesting for this next Presidency. We, as a nation, and global society, have experienced whact can only be nothing but a consistent eight years of dysfunctional and governing destructive policies that only can be explained as an attempt to dismantle our Two-Hundred and Thirty Year Republic. Was these eight years the attempt to implement the New World Order that have been whispered for years?

In all aspects if you conscientiously review the last eight years starting with the War in Iraq was by all respect a conquest and not war of defense, this finally being admitted in the fog of this year's politics has underlined the other maddening policies and actions by this government. Its economic policies resulted and were predicated to transfer as much wealth and power to the wealthy as was before the Great Depression when fascism was common among the Gilded in our society. The effort to privatize Social Security unmasked their transparent veil as a final full throttle effort, as was this bail out plan. The utter disregard for governing competence exampled by Katrina's Rescue and Recovery does not need any more words. The unabashed and unapologetic move to circumvent practically every Constitutional "check & balance" with its absolute disregard for the rule of law, human and even American citizenry civil rights is well documented. Now, the economic melt down predicted by their former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neil is touching all, including the rich who are vested in a Wall Street meltdown.

That all said; the US electorate is beginning to speak out almost a month before the final voting day. I say final day because a few states are already receiving Mail In ballots and where Ohio is engaged in early voting despite Republican cries. Next week Colorado will join a growing number of states where votes will be cast. The fears of the Republicans are quite public where all efforts for voter suppression in the guise of protecting integrity of the vote is under way, but even with a 3-5% potential corruption hopefully be overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of new registrations. The AP reports that the Democrat advantage has grown to 42M to 31M.

The Democrats have posted big gains in many competitive states, including Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Florida. They have also been targeting historically Republican southern states.

In Colorado the Rocky Mountain News reports that over 215,000 new registrations have occurred since January 1st with still a weekend to go.

Statewide, nearly 215,000 people between Jan. 1 and Sept. 1 registered as a new voter or because they moved to a different county, according to Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies in Louisville.

...

Of those newly registered voters, 78,013 are Democrats, compared with 48,451 Republicans. New unaffiliated voters outnumber both major parties, with 85,795 registrations during that eight-month period, according to the political consulting firm.

More than 40 percent of new voters are opting for mail ballots.

Across the nation states are having problems administrating this new demand. Florida are report in the Sun Sentinal states that the backlog is huge.

TALLAHASSEE - Fueled by a historic presidential campaign, a wave of new voter registrations has swamped the Florida elections office — and prompted state officials to turn to counties for a lifeline.

The state Division of Elections, overwhelmed by 25,000 registrations that arrived this week alone, now has a backlog of 32,000 voter files.

The Miami Herald reports that Florida has seen 600,00 new voter registrations.

Since January, there have been 109,361 newly registered black voters in Florida, according to the Florida Democratic Party. That represents 18 percent of the total 613,680 new registrations statewide.

In every battleground state reports are that Nevada has seen over 500,000 new voters registered, New Jersey has seen a 3.5% increase. North Carolina just reported a new record with 600,000 new registrations.

Spurred by heavy registration in big urban counties -- particularly among young voters and African Americans -- N.C. voter rolls have swollen by more than 600,000 this year to a record 6 million.

``Voter registration has eclipsed all records, no doubt about it,'' says state elections director Gary Bartlett.

The apparent beneficiaries: Democrats. Analysts say the changes have helped Democrat Barack Obama make the state an unexpected battleground.

``Clearly, the advantage goes to Obama,'' says Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Public Life at UNC Chapel Hill.

This is being repeated in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada with reports like these:

But voter registration trends in Nevada favor Democrats this year. From January through August, Democrats gained 58,134 new registered voters in Nevada, compared to 7,315 for Republicans. At the end of August, there were 565,855 registered Democrats in the state and 489,802 Republicans, according to the Nevada secretary of state's office. The key to winning the state, however, is with the 200,959 registered nonpartisans.

This year, local Democrats are determined to deliver the state to Obama, and volunteers from Nevada and California are turning out in droves for registration drives and other grass-roots efforts.

Then there is Virginia:

Monday is the deadline to register in time to vote in the Nov. 4 general election, but already more than 50,000 18-year-olds have registered to vote in Virginia.

Since the start of the year, Virginia has added 284,162 new voters, according to a Sept. 25 report from the state board of elections. That’s more than a 6 percent increase over the 2004 voter registrations.

Of Virginia’s new voters, about 42 percent are between 17 and 25 years old. The vast majority of the new voters were between the ages of 17 and 20, which means this will be their first time voting in a presidential election.

Translating this also brings us to NBC's internal polling that Obama is winning the new voter and youth vote (under 29 years old) two-to-one. This brings us back to the my original thoughts where this election is not so much about the particular individuals but bloodlessly stemming the last eight years. McCain's stature and support are waning with each day and the consistency of the polls are demonstrating this nationally and state by state.

The news that Obama is leading in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, puts the McCain campaign behind the Eight Ball in that those are must wins states for them.

A new set of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in all three of the largest swing states: He's up 51%-43% in Florida, 50%-42% in Ohio, and 54%-39% in Pennsylvania, all outside the ±3.4% margins of error. Three weeks ago, Quinnipiac put Obama ahead in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but behind by seven points in Florida. The reason for Obama's surge: The economy.

This is against the national tracking polling that is validating the electoral lead:

• Time Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%
• Pew Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 42%
• Rasmussen Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 45%
• Res. 2000 Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 41%
• ABC/WaPo Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 46%
• Gallup Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 43%
• ARG Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%
• Hotline/Diageo Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 41%

What is telling is that in four polls Obama is over the 50% mark and in three others he is at 49%.

The other is the spread averaging 6.2 points which equates to 250 vote electoral win---WOW!

Finally the anticipation of tomorrow's Vice President debate is like the Super Bowl. That said CBS News is rumored to be releasing this tidbit of Palinology where an anonymous aide told Politico of a real doozie ...

Palin noted Roe vs. Wade but was unable to reference or discuss any other major court cases.

"There was no verbal fumbling with this particular question as there was with some others, the aide said, but rather silence," Martin wrote.

That was an anonymous account. And CBS News has refused to publicly confirm it. But a few moments ago, CBS News released the text of a couple questions (but not the answers) that Palin has been asked on interview footage that's set to air tonight. And sure enough, one of them is...

Why do you think Roe v. Wade is a good or bad decision? What other Supreme Court decisions do you disagree with?

It is said that viewers who take this seriously will be warned.

Instability STUPID, plus Palin trepidations, Electoral Map's moving and the local scene

GOOD MORNING....COLORADO!
We are now not a toss up state, gosh I was feeling like a salad for a long time living in virtual political Gettysburg or is it Stalingrad---as in 199 days. The bottom line for this state is that it is now a Obama leaning state even though it currently has more Republican registered voters than Democratic---that said it also has more Independents and they are falling for Obama.

INSTABILITY STUPID?
Today as the analysts begin to make hay or use gray matter over the last 14 days from, now infamous quote of "THE ECONOMY IS SOLID" to today's $700B of the rich and hidden the consensus is that the UNDECIDED's among the electorate are falling towards Obama because of instability as in how unstable the Republican ticket is emotionally and intellectually. I love metaphors or analogies so a good one is how opponents reacted when they were on the verge of being routed by a Bob Knight Indiana University Basketball Team. Bob's teams would expose an opponent's weakness in this case McCain's campaign is all story and no substance. Story meaning that all they have are personal (and mostly fictional) storylines of their candidates, personalities like those publicist stories of former movie stars. When confronted with reality the glare of reality exposes their shallow and even incompetent view of actual governing.

Here is Josh Marshall's take:

I've seen several articles over the weekend arguing that Barack Obama's recent move up in the polls is due to the renewed attention on the economy, particularly the financial crisis which has taken on a renewed urgency over the last ten days. I don't doubt this is true to a substantial degree. But looking at the arc of the tracking polls, particularly the second half of last week, I'm wondering if a big part of the gap isn't due to McCain's increasingly erratic and craven behavior -- the now almost legendary campaign 'suspension' non-suspension being the best example.

--Josh Marshall

PALIN TREPIDATIONS

THIS JUST BREAKING

Buried near the end of today's column from Howard Kurtz, where he is discussing Sarah Palin's horrendous interview with Katie Couric, was this interesting tidbit:

And the worst may be yet to come for Palin; sources say CBS has two more responses on tape that will likely prove embarrassing.

Given the outrageously uneducated and uninformed sophomoric answers she gave on her state's proximity to Russia, given her foreign policy experience, or what she said about the soon to be $700B bailout on Wall Street, could there really be something else? How much worse? And then the other natural question this leads to is: WTF is CBS waiting for? Why haven't they aired the entire tape? Regardless they will have to now!

This campaign's narrative came through this morning where on Joe Scarborough they commented on George Stephanopoulos's questioning of McCain on Sunday's THIS WEEK; when they talked about how McCain failed to look Obama in the eye at all during the debate. They said it is more than odd and David Gregory stated that it was possibly the McCain camp attempting tap down McCain's problem with temper. McCain said he was looking at the moderator and writing and wouldn't acknowledge an obvious body language faux pas. This one has legs.

The Palin situation continues to brew like a low boil soup pot on the back burner. She is absolutely not qualified for a national politician, but that is who they chose so they are doing everything possible to block and tackle for her. Today on FOX with Friends McCain talking head Nancy Pfotenhauer, (a former Koch Industries Right Wing spokesperson---a true National Socialist family in America), warned Gwen Iffill:

The McCain camp is saying that veep debate moderator Gwen Ifill "will have to answer for herself if she asks too many foreign policy questions Thursday night".

ANSWER TO WHOM?

The most ironic moment of the weekend was McCain having to explain that Palin was incorrect in agreeing with Obama over Pakistan and Al Qaeda policy. McCain was then mad that reporters were recording comments she was making to people on the street about policy matters. Come on John----what are you really mad at---another ding to your lies or that Palin is so guarded she is like the Romanoff Family?

Of course Palin is so juicy that Saturday Night Live just can't contain itself as they opened with another skit of Palin. Can you guess what they will do after what is being anticipated as a SNL skit for real this coming Thursday Night? Ironically CNN's Reliable Sources couldn't resist either yesterday morning when they discussed how SNL's portrayals were fair and becoming embedded into the cultural veins.

The thing is now she is being hunkered down in McCain's Arizona ranch and it is being characterized as Debate Camp. Is it kind of like how parents sent their kids to summer camp to get rid of them for part of the summer or are they sequesting her like a Romanoff?

(CNN)– Gov. Sarah Palin will now spend two and a half days near Sedona, Arizona, to prepare for Thursday's debate, instead of prepping in St Louis, as originally planned.

Sarah Palin will be at John McCain's rustic creek side home outside Sedona for what a top aide calls "debate camp."

The aide, who's part of the team prepping Palin, tells CNN they decided to take her to debate camp there because it is an "invigorating and enjoyable place to prepare for Thursday."

"SP [Sarah Palin] loves it and has her kids and Todd coming," wrote the aide in an email.

The aide said "John McCain himself came up with the idea after thinking it would be great before his next debate.

Pailin has already been hunkered down for four days in a Philadelphia hotel for debate prep with advisers.

She will take a short break Monday to attend a rally with McCain in Ohio, before heading to Arizona.

MOVING ELECTORAL MAPS
The results are that the Electoral Maps are moving in Obama's way not unlike how he grinded out a victory in the nominating process. Volunteering with the campaign my colleague and I have commented that going back to last year the campaign has always done things correctly. The biggest thing was staying focused on what actually wins nominations and elections----delegates. Currently the maps are moving in directions as the we get withing 5 weeks of the final voting day. This is what the state polls add up as the math (or map) picture emerges:

Chuck Todd and MSNBC's political team crunched the polls illustrating how the electoral map is now in favor of Obama, with a couple of real surprises:

Four new states have been added to our Toss-up category, 3 (2004) Red states & 1 Blue state. This gives Obama a 212-174 edge, after his more narrow 233-227 lead last week.

• Florida
• Indiana
  
• North Carolina
• Virginia
  
• Nevada
• Colorado
  
• Pennsylvania
• Wisconsin

What is interesting is that New Hampshire is now becoming a strong Obama lean along with Michigan and Minnesota joining New Mexico and Iowa. McCain cannot win without Michigan, North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia even with Florida and Ohio. The grind is on and as Joe Scarborough the former Republican Congressman from Florida said today, this appears to be looking like a defeat.

Real Clear Politics has it where Colorado is now a definite leaner for Obama along with Washington State, Michigan, New Mexico and New Jersey. That said here are the combination polls from the toss up states:

Virginia (Obama 1.8, most recent Obama +5)

Pennsylvania (Obama 4.4, most recent Obama +4, this one is close to moving to leaning)

New Hampshire (Obama 1.3, spread most recent Obama +4, see above leaning)

Michigan (Obama +3.8, spread most recent Obama +6)

North Carolina (Obama +0.3, most recent Obama +2)

Colorado (Obama +5.4, most recent Obama +4)

States where McCain is losing ground but still lead:

• Indiana (McCain +2.3, most recent McCain +2)
• Florida (McCain +1.6, most recent McCain +1)
• Ohio (McCain +1.2, most recent McCain +1)
• Nevada (McCain 1.7, most recent McCain +1)
• Missouri (McCain 3.2, most recent McCain +1)
  

LOCALLY SPEAKING....don't vote in El Paso Electronic Machines!

Locally the issue is voter fraud. A stunning article in this week's Independent should send shivers down the spine of any citizen.

Like the electronic voting machines he programs for El Paso County, John Gardner gives the impression of dependability. Clean-cut with a receding hairline, he sounds confident and authoritative answering questions through most of a 40-minute interview with the Independent.

"Whatever's in my personnel file," he says.

The portion of Gardner's personnel file released to the Independent does not give that information. What it does show, however, is that when Gardner applied for the job of information systems manager in June, he wrote on his application that he had studied architecture for four years at Montana State University without getting a degree.

That differs from what he wrote on his application in 2001, when he was hired for his first stint as information systems manager for the clerk and recorder's office. On that application, he claimed a bachelor's degree in architecture from Montana State after six years of study, though he didn't give a graduation date.

It also differs from application materials he submitted to the Colorado secretary of state's office in 2005, when he applied for the voting-machine testing job that ended up taking him away from the county. In those, his résumé said he graduated in 1992, and his official state application — which carries a warning that giving false information is a criminal offense — gave the date as 1993.

At the secretary of state's office, Gardner quickly became head of the program for testing voting machines. His performance drew heavy criticism from voting activists, and he wound up playing a central role in a 2006 lawsuit about flaws with the testing system.

At that point, Gardner said in sworn testimony that he graduated in 1994.

Gardner didn't budge this week from claiming he has a degree, insisting he made a mistake on his 2008 application. But he can't explain how that could have happened.

"That could be just an error," he says.

A conversation with Bonnie Ashley, associate registrar at Montana State University, suggests otherwise. She confirms Gardner was a student there in the early 1990s, but after searching multiple databases, says, "I did not find a record of any degree awarded to Mr. Gardner."...

...

But credibility certainly is required. In the second-most populous county in a swing state, in a presidential election year, Gardner is the lead tech guy responsible for making sure voting machines work correctly.

After learning of the discrepancies Wednesday morning, Dennis Hisey, chair of the El Paso County Board of County Commissioners, says he wants to learn more.

"If in fact he does not have a degree," Hisey says, "that's a problem."

Gardner hesitates only briefly when told about the registrar's comment.

"Uh, I don't know without talking to them," he says.

Bob Balink, El Paso County clerk and recorder, insisted that Terry Sholdt, the chief deputy clerk, attend Gardner's Independent interview Monday afternoon. Sholdt says little during most of the interview, but does note that she's unaware of discrepancies between Gardner's two county applications.

When questions related to Gardner's inconsistencies on official documents — and what seems at least a possible case of perjury — come up, Sholdt refers questions to Balink.

...

Around 5:30 Monday night, Balink's office sends out a press release related to election fraud. Within the next couple hours, he responds to Independent inquiries only via quick notes from his Blackberry.

"I haven't had a chance to meet with Terry or discuss the mtg you had with them as that isn't a priority," he writes just before 7, adding, "we're gearing up for an election — we're still working tonight — this election is our focus right now."

By Tuesday morning, Balink is featured in a KKTV News Channel 11 report as blaming "radical liberal groups" for submitting fraudulent registrations during the voter registration drives they hold every presidential election year.

While giving interviews Tuesday to other media outlets, and responding to at least one citizen frustrated by his KKTV interview (Balink replies by saying his "liberal" comment was quoting from a book), Balink delays an interview with the Independent about possible fraud in application materials submitted by his information systems manager.

He responds late Tuesday night to e-mailed questions from the Independent, answering a list of concerns about Gardner's degree status with a simple comment: "WE DO NOT HAVE KNOWLEDGE OF ANY FACTS OF A VILATION [sic] OF LAW OR POLICY, EITHER COUNTY OR STATE THAT WOULD REQUIRE SEPARATIN [sic] OF EMPLOYMENT FROM EL PASO COUNTY."

Gardner and Balink started working together in early 2003, after Balink was elected clerk and recorder the previous November. The diehard Republican has been vocal on election issues, for instance urging lawmakers to pass a law requiring would-be voters to show photo identification before registering.

Gardner had been in his information systems manager position since August 2001. Previously, he had done IT work for an architecture firm and had become a "Microsoft certified professional" after taking a four- or five-month training course. Though he had no experience with elections, motor vehicle certification or other functions of the clerk and recorder's office, he saw the county job as a good opportunity.

"Just like any job, you kind of learn the various aspects of the industry as you go," he says. "It wasn't, 'Gosh, I really have an interest in elections,' it was, 'I really have an interest in information systems, [and] I'd like to work for the government ... because I think this is a good place to serve the community and just the type of job that I'm interested in.'"

Performance reviews filled out by Sholdt show Gardner quickly got the hang of things after a shaky start.

...

Gardner's deposition leading up to the September 2006 trial took three days. Paul Hultin, lead attorney in the lawsuit, questioned Gardner about his experience, education and preparation.

After swearing to tell the truth, Gardner said he finished high school in New York in 1987 (which would probably put him around 40 years old today). He asserted repeatedly under oath that he graduated from Montana State in 1994.

...

"Do you have any technical training in computer security?" Hultin asked.

"Not to my knowledge, no," Gardner replied.

"Do you have any technical training in the evaluation of computer systems?"

"I don't believe so."

The full transcript from the deposition runs about 700 pages. Hultin questioned Gardner about cases in which he used his "judgment" to pass voting systems. Hultin showed that the testing process, which followed rules largely written by Gardner, did not have minimum standards for the machines to pass.

Denver District Judge Lawrence Manzanares ruled Sept. 22, 2006, that the tests were inadequate...
...

Reached at his Denver office this week, Hultin says it would represent an "outrageous fabrication" if Gardner did not in fact graduate from Montana State University.

"I think this further undermines any shred of credibility about the certification work Gardner did on electronic voting systems in 2006, 2007 and 2008," he says.

Our Team had a Good Night!----Joe Biden

Last we gathered at a volunteer friends home with about 50 others and around Colorado and around the nation many other Obama volunteers collected to watch The Ole Miss Debate, (except for my former Republican Reptile who says he doesn't watch them---curious), and it is apparent that our "Team had a Good Night", said a smiling Joe Biden to Keith Obermann after the event. Interestingly so did P.J. O'Rourke the author of the book, "Republican Party Reptile" on this morning's talk shows. As did Pat Buchanan last night who said that McCain's performance was that of an "Angry White Man"

These reactions were confirmed by the reaction polls last night:

• UPDATED WITH FINAL NUMBERS CBS News and Knowledge Networks conducted a nationally representative poll of approximately 500 uncommitted voters reacting to the debate in the minutes after it happened. 39% of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. 24%r percent thought John McCain won. 37% percent saw it as a draw. 46% of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight. 32% percent said their opinion of McCain got better.
• Insider Advantage reports those polled Obama won 42% to McCain's 41% with Undecided 17%
• CNN reports voter opinions that Obama "did better" 51%, McCain "did better" 38%
• The CNN poll showed men were evenly split, but women gave Obama higher marks 59% to 41% for McCain.
• The MSNBC on-line poll showed Obama winning the debate 52% to 33%.

I have to go out and lead a volunteer effort today but what I found ironic to the whole bit was the idea that McCain had spent money on developing a Web ad that he had won with pre-loaded quotes from his campaign manager Rick Davis how good he did. WTF?
Kind of reminds me of the infamous headline in my old favoirte morning paper; The Chicago Tribune; Dewey Beats Truman!

BREAKING Calls for Palin to resign quit from GOP beginning

Breaking News from Big Eddie:

Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people are more than concerned about Palin. The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as "disastrous." One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, "What are we going to do?" The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is "clueless."

MORE BREAKING NEWS
Politico.com

A growing number of Republicans are expressing concern about Sarah Palin's uneven -- and sometimes downright awkward -- performances in her limited media appearances.

Conservative columnists Kathleen Parker, a former Palin supporter, says the vice presidential nominee should step aside. Kathryn Jean Lopez, writing on the conservative National Review, says "that's not a crazy suggestion" and that "something's gotta change."

Tony Fabrizio, a GOP strategist, says Palin's recent CBS appearance isn't disqualifying but is certainly alarming. "You can't continue to have interviews like that and not take on water."

“I have not been blown away by the interviews from her, but at the same time I haven’t come away from them thinking she doesn’t know s—t,” said Chris Lacivita, a GOP strategist. “But she ain’t Dick Cheney, nor Joe Biden and definitely not Hillary Clinton.”

But there is also no doubt many Republican insiders are worried she could blow next week’s debate, based on her unexpectedly weak and unsteady media appearances, and hurt the Republican ticket if she does.

Speaking this week with CBS’s Katie Couric, Palin seemed caught off-guard by a very predictable question about the status of McCain adviser Rick Davis’s relationship with mortgage lender Freddie Mac. Davis was accused by several news outlets of retaining ties — and profiting off — the companies despite his denials.

Where a more experienced politician might have been able to brush off Couric’s follow-up question, Palin seemed genuinely stumped, repeating the same answer twice and resorting to boilerplate language about the “undue influence of lobbyists.”

The Titanic is taking in water. McCain gambled big and now is leaving Washington without leading a deal and having to go to the debate. And now the whispers are beginning to be calls from the conservatives that Palin is a disaster and needs to resign to save the Party and the nation, this in the conservative National Review.

It was fun while it lasted.

Palin’s recent interviews with Charles Gibson, Sean Hannity, and now Katie Couric have all revealed an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who Is Clearly Out Of Her League.

No one hates saying that more than I do. Like so many women, I’ve been pulling for Palin, wishing her the best, hoping she will perform brilliantly. I’ve also noticed that I watch her interviews with the held breath of an anxious parent, my finger poised over the mute button in case it gets too painful. Unfortunately, it often does. My cringe reflex is exhausted.

Palin filibusters. She repeats words, filling space with deadwood. Cut the verbiage and there’s not much content there. Here’s but one example of many from her interview with Hannity: “Well, there is a danger in allowing some obsessive partisanship to get into the issue that we’re talking about today. And that’s something that John McCain, too, his track record, proving that he can work both sides of the aisle, he can surpass the partisanship that must be surpassed to deal with an issue like this.”

When Couric pointed to polls showing that the financial crisis had boosted Obama’s numbers, Palin blustered wordily: “I’m not looking at poll numbers. What I think Americans at the end of the day are going to be able to go back and look at track records and see who’s more apt to be talking about solutions and wishing for and hoping for solutions for some opportunity to change, and who’s actually done it?”

If BS were currency, Palin could bail out Wall Street herself.

If Palin were a man, we’d all be guffawing, just as we do every time Joe Biden tickles the back of his throat with his toes. But because she’s a woman — and the first ever on a Republican presidential ticket — we are reluctant to say what is painfully true.

What to do?

McCain can’t repudiate his choice for running mate. He not only risks the wrath of the GOP’s unforgiving base, but he invites others to second-guess his executive decision-making ability. Barack Obama faces the same problem with Biden.

Only Palin can save McCain, her party, and the country she loves. She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.

Do it for your country.

— Kathleen Parker is a national columnist Conservative Republican Political Columns, Kathleen Parker is a syndicated columnist with the Washington Post Writers Group where she has contributed to more than a dozen newspapers and magazines during her 20 years as a journalist. In addition to her syndicated column, Parker is director of the School of Written Expression at the Buckley School of Public Speaking and Persuasion in Camden, South Carolina.

And finally this strange thing today released as a Web Advertisement inadvertently in the FIX

Although the fate of tonight's presidential debate in Mississippi remains very much up in the air, John McCain has apparently already won it -- if you believe an Internet ad an astute reader spotted next to this piece in the online edition of the Wall Street Journal this morning.

"McCain Wins Debate!" declares the ad which features a headshot of a smiling McCain with an American flag background. Another ad spotted by our eagle-eyed observer featured a quote from McCain campaign manager Rick Davis declaring: "McCain won the debate-- hands down."

The Debate Decision, Deal, Disruption, Palin, Polls & Field Office Reports

Okay this morning everything was about how McCain disrupted yesterday's deal, where today basically many of his fellow legislators said---get out of town John and go to the Debate. He is. The thing is every political observer stated that McCain took a BIG RISK in this political tactic which was probably the worst time to do it and it showed. Ed Rollins inquired rhetorically on CNN last night: "Who is advising him?" He then went onto reveal that the Republican Congress doesn't care about McCain and why. Whatever at the time of this posting he is on his way to Ole' Miss to debate tonight. So he got on the jet plane and made his way to Mississippi.

I think this in this article in the Huffington Post summed it up best in, "McCain's Economic Plan: Blurt Out Random Crap".

There are several reasons why Senator Obama is enjoying a double-digit lead in the "honest and trustworthy" category (47 percent to 36 percent according the new ABC News/Washington Post poll). First, Senator Obama doesn't, you know, lie to the American people every damn day. Second, Senator Obama didn't vote with the dishonest, corrupt Bush administration 90 percent of the time.

But one of the main reasons why the nation appears to be lining up against Senator McCain's insanely obvious lack of integrity could be because his very serious and mavericky campaign strategy can be described in four simple words:

Blurt Out Random Crap.

"Crap," in this context, is defined as everything from lies to weasel-words to inexplicably weird nonsense. And it seems like Senator McCain does this a lot. So much so that we can only conclude that it's intentional.

The goal: Get McCain on record saying something no matter how ridiculous. This way, he can hit the stump later and boast that he said something with regards to scary stuff in the news. I said something [that didn't make any sense and was probably a lie] and Senator Obama didn't say anything [also a lie]! My friends! And whenever he's accused of routinely blurting out random crap, Senator McCain trucks out the old punishment theorem: If Senator Obama had only agreed to the town halls, I wouldn't be selling-out the last shreds of my honor or integrity just to get elected. Can't you see? Senator Obama turned me into a hack, dammit!

Palin's Interview that even the press is comparing to the famed So Carolina Teen Beauty Contestent Performance.

To my Republican and Independent friends and acquaintances who read this, too bad this appears to be the weight of the truth. Ironically is is backed up the performance of McCain's big decision---Sarah Palin on CBS's interview with Katie Couric---which is weird or worse simply she is a dumb ass and who the hell thought they could sell her? This You Tube creation has it best but the transcript says it all. Talk about Random Crap (Segment One Video) get a load (Segment Two) of this CBS interview: Interview One transcript and Interview Two transcipt

Couric: But can you give me any other concrete examples? Because I know you've said Barack Obama is a lot of talk and no action. Can you give me any other examples in his 26 years of John McCain truly taking a stand on this?

Palin: I can give you examples of things that John McCain has done, that has shown his foresight, his pragmatism, and his leadership abilities. And that is what America needs today.



Couric: I'm just going to ask you one more time - not to belabor the point. Specific examples in his 26 years of pushing for more regulation.

Palin: I'll try to find you some and I'll bring them to you.

So she takes a strong position stating a record that she cannot state one thing...sounds like a sell job.....or a beauty queen contestent.

Couric: Have you ever been involved in any negotiations, for example, with the Russians?

Palin: We have trade missions back and forth, we do. It's very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia. As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border. It is from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there, they are right next to our state.

I don't know but I am still trying to figure out what involvement she has or whether she actually thinks Putin (who has an ugly head---and further should we be calling childish names of leaders of nations is that diplomacy?) and flies in our airspace? Is she saying the Governor of Alaska actually has anything to do with our national strategic defense? GET REAL....

Couric: You met yesterday with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who is for direct diplomacy with both Iran and Syria. Do you believe the U.S. should negotiate with leaders like President Assad and Ahmadinejad?

Palin: I think, with Ahmadinejad, personally, he is not one to negotiate with. You can't just sit down with him with no preconditions being met. Barack Obama is so off-base in his proclamation that he would meet with some of these leaders around our world who would seek to destroy America and that, and without preconditions being met. That's beyond naïve. And it's beyond bad judgment.

Couric: Are you saying Henry Kissinger …

Palin: It's dangerous.

Couric: … is naïve for supporting that?

Palin: I've never heard Henry Kissinger say, "Yeah, I'll meet with these leaders without preconditions being met." Diplomacy is about doing a lot of background work first and shoring up allies and positions and figuring out what sanctions perhaps could be implemented if things weren't gonna go right. That's part of diplomacy.

Was she listening to the question or simply and blindly regurgitating the campaign's talking points?

Couric: You recently said three times that you would never, quote, "second guess" Israel if that country decided to attack Iran. Why not?

Palin: We shouldn't second guess Israel's security efforts because we cannot ever afford to send a message that we would allow a second Holocaust, for one. Israel has got to have the opportunity and the ability to protect itself. They are our closest ally in the Mideast. We need them. They need us. And we shouldn't second guess their efforts.

Couric: You don't think the United States is within its rights to express its position to Israel? And if that means second-guessing or discussing an option?

Palin: No, abso … we need to express our rights and our concerns and …

Couric: But you said never second guess them.

Palin: We don't have to second-guess what their efforts would be if they believe … that it is in their country and their allies, including us, all of our best interests to fight against a regime, especially Iran, who would seek to wipe them off the face of the earth. It is obvious to me who the good guys are in this one and who the bad guys are. The bad guys are the ones who say Israel is a stinking corpse and should be wiped off the face of the earth. That's not a good guy who is saying that. Now, one who would seek to protect the good guys in this, the leaders of Israel and her friends, her allies, including the United States, in my world, those are the good guys.

NEVER SAY NEVER, especially if you are a national leader.....dumb ass
Now if you wonder why would McCain do some of these lame-brain things it is well-known from Washington that he is prone to rash even impulsive decisions. One can state that it is the natural out growth of a fighter jet pilot. But it appears that McCain felt that he was in a dogfight and Obama was on his tail and then decided to take a radical evasion manuever, like taking his jet on a steep climb wondering who might stall first---it appears that he did and now he is in the death sights. Here are the national tracking polls after this week since John McCain's pseudo-suspension -- it appears certain now that Barack Obama is extending the lead:

• Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error---yesterday, the candidates were tied 46%-46%.
  
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error---Obama lead yesterday of 49%-46%.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error---yesterday Obama had a 47%-43% lead.
• Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error---yesterday, Obama was up 49%-43%.

In the polls Obama gained and McCain lost a measurable point or two hmmmm...net loss.

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM Field Reports in Colorado---Denver

This political geek's political website has a great report of visiting campaign field offices in Colorado:

During the primaries, Kathy Archuleta supported Hillary Clinton. The former Chief of Staff to Transportation Secretary Federico Peña, Archuleta is now a Latina Advisory team member for Barack Obama. Along with three other women, she has organized an impressive women-to-women outreach program aimed at adding 10,000 undecided and/or least-likely women voters to vote for Obama.

In just two and a half weeks, Archuleta’s effort has coordinated a 1,000-strong-and-growing group. The goal for each member is to get at least eight women to vote for Obama who probably would not have voted otherwise. Among the group’s ranks, Archuleta counted 100 women in Colorado Springs, 100 in Vail, 100 in Evergreen, 50 in Pueblo, and 250-400 in the Denver area who would be counted on for this targeted outreach....

We stopped in the nearby McCain office in Thornton, and an organizer and several volunteers made dials. While they were diligently going about the tasks of voter contact, the scale is dramatically different. Moments after we saw three dialers in the McCain office, we counted 40 volunteers in the Obama office down the street.

BIG PARTY TONIGHT! DEBATE WATCHING AND VOLUNTEER PARTY

Norm Thom, precinct chair in 42 is hosting a debate watching party at 1218 High Point Ln. located off of Mesa Rd up Terrace Rd and to your left. Bring a dish and bring a friend.

Late Night Post---Letterman's Smell Test and GOP's Congressional Harry Carey

I missed this last night and the chatter on the list serve's this morning but I think David Letterman put the stake into John McCain's campaign last night to middle America and now the GOP Congress has nailed the coffin shut.

LETTERMAN---"the road to the White House goes through my show"

In case you have missed it last night John McCain canceled his appearance on Late Night with David Letterman at 3:00 PM Eastern time, about an hour before the show was scheduled to begin taping. At the start of the show Letterman was his ascorbic cynical self, unhappy in being stood up. But then when he found out that instead of appearing on his show he was being interviewed on Katie Couric's Evening News after he had said he was leaving immediately to Washington on a plane. He had in fact lied. Well Letterman went ballistic with his biting tongue with Obermann as his fill in guest and just lambasted McCain---saying it smells. Watch it here

Tonight the Conservative Republican base appears to have revolted against its sitting President and its Presidential nominee. Bail out Deal Stalls

A Republican revolt stalled urgent efforts to lash together a national economic rescue plan Thursday, a chaotic turnaround on a day that had seemed headed for a success that President Bush, both political parties and their presidential candidates could celebrate at an extraordinary White House meeting.

Weary congressional negotiators worked into the night, joined by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in an effort to revive or rework the $700 billion proposal that President Bush said must be quickly approved by Congress to stave off potentially "a long and deep recession."

They gave up after 10 p.m. EDT, more than an hour after the lone House Republican involved, Rep. Spencer Bachus of Alabama, left the room. Democrats blamed the House Republicans for the apparent stalemate. Those conservatives have complained that the plan would be too costly for taxpayers and would be an unacceptable federal intrusion into private business.

Talks were to resume Friday morning on the effort to bail out failing financial institutions and restart the flow of credit that has begun to starve the national economy. The plan's centerpiece still is for the government to buy the toxic, mortgage-based assets of shaky financial institutions in a bid to keep them from going under and setting off a cascade of ruinous events, including wiped-out retirement savings, rising home foreclosures, closed businesses, and lost jobs.

The New York Times had began to make sense of this Mississippi Flood of man made financial disasters, as McCain leaps into the thicket:

Senator McCain had intended to ride back into Washington on Thursday as a leader who had put aside presidential politics to help broker a solution to the financial crisis. Instead he found himself in the midst of a remarkable partisan showdown, lacking a clear public message for how to bring it to an end.

At the bipartisan White House meeting that Mr. McCain had called for a day earlier, he sat silently for more than 40 minutes, more observer than leader, and then offered only a vague sense of where he stood, said people in the meeting.

In subsequent television interviews, Mr. McCain suggested that he saw the bipartisan plan that came apart at the White House meeting as the proper basis for an eventual agreement, but he did not tip his hand as to whether he would give any support to the alternative put on the table by angry House Republicans, with whom he had met before going to the White House.

If this is not Harry Carey by "ideologically-speaking" I don't know what is. These Republicans as Ed Rollins the old Reagan campaign aide and political advisor has said that those Republican Congressman and Senators are hunkering down and thinking about personal survivial and the remnants of their party and ideology instead of the nation. Yes they are being partisan and willing to tank the market and all that goes with it---[That is for you Tom, your authoritarians without conscience as John Dean coined.] They are willing to thumb their noses at Bush & McCain and go home to try to survive in safe districts.

Now the Scary Freak Show on CBS News tonight---Sarah Palin---OMG!

For one she cannot explain how her proximity to Russia and Canada translates into foreign relations experience.----She reminded me of a sales person who just wanted to make the sale and didn't know anything about the product of your needs, but she is ready!

Two, she says we should never second guess Israel unconditionally because it will lead to another holocost....almost middle school logic but more like a high school social studies intellectual understanding-----dangerous and confused.

The Fifth Element, more on Rick Davis...(oh boy) and of course a deal is at hand

Latest Breaking NEWS: THREE-FOURTH of the Nation wants the DEBATE to continue.

Survey USA, which did some snap polling yesterday finding big majorities think the debate and campaign should proceed, had another crack at it today, after news of McCain's campaign "suspension" had really sunken in.

Their finding? Huge majorities still want the debate and campaign to proceed:

* 3 of 4 Americans say the Friday debate should be held on Friday.

* 23% today Thursday say the debate should be postponed, up from 10% yesterday.

* 3 of 4 Americans say presidential campaigning should continue. (Of the three-fourths who say the campaign should continue, many say it should refocus, which doesn't really change the significance of the finding much.)

WASHINGTON POST: MCCAIN gets to DC after Deal outline set.

McCain's "Straight Talk Air" landed at National Airport just after noon, and McCain's motorcade sped toward the Senate. But by then, senior Democrats and Republicans were already announcing that a deal in principle had been reached.

That news appeared to be somewhat premature as House Republican leader John Boehner told his members that "no deal" had yet been reached. McCain arrived at 3:40 p.m. at the White House, where he and his rival, Sen. Barack Obama, were scheduled to meet with President Bush and congressional leaders at 4 p.m.

PALIN DOES CBS INTERVIEW WITH COURIC...more strangeness see the video ...
Basically it is indescribable-incoherent. That's not meant as snarkto be partisan snarky, just an attempt to describe the part where she explains why her experience as Alaska governor gives her foreign policy and national security credit---weird.

COURIC: Well, explain to me why that enhances your foreign policy credentials?

PALIN: Well, it certainly does because our next door neighbors are foreign countries. they're in the state that i am the executive of. And there in Russia --

COURIC: Have you ever been involved with any negotiations for example, with the Russians?

PALIN: We have trade missions back and forth. We do -- it's very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia -- as Putin rears his head and comes into the airspace of the United States of America, where do they go?

It's Alaska, It's right over the border. It is from Alaska, that we send those out to make sure an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there, they are right next to our state.

Earlier BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Shelby(R)-AL, and Cong. Mike Pence(R)-IN, says now there is no deal.

Hmmm....Looks like a GOP revolt (maverick or real) Republican Congress (minority or majority) are opposing Republican Paulsen, President Bush and Wall Street on a deal. McCain doesn't want to debate even though the country says they want him to.


Previous BREAKING NEWS: Reuters saying the deal is done

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The chairman of the Senate Banking Committee said House of Representatives and Senate negotiators have reached "fundamental agreement" on a set of principles guiding a Wall Street bailout bill.

Sen. Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, emerged from a morning-long meeting on Thursday with top House and Senate lawmakers to tell reporters that he thought Congress could act within the "next few days" to pass a bill.

Dodd did not provide details on the major areas of contention that have been under negotiation.

Let us start on this day where less than an hour after Senator McCain gave a speech personally in New York City at Bill Clinton's Global Initiative Conference, Nancy Pelosi has broke in the news that great progress has been made. Guess it was a threat of McCain and Obama coming to town that got it done behind the scenes. More to come as things forward today. This from the AP titled: Compromise Close on $700B Deal

Senior lawmakers and Bush administration officials have cleared away key obstacles to a deal on the unprecedented rescue, agreeing to include widely supported limits on pay packages for executives whose companies benefit.

They're still wrangling over major elements, including how to phase in the eye-popping cost — a measure demanded by Democrats and some Republicans who want stronger congressional control over the bailout — without spooking markets.

Barack Obama, speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative, offered a read on the politics of the bailout that was strikingly at odds with McCain read earlier this morning. From Obama's prepared remarks:

Congressional leaders have made progress in their negotiations, and appear close to a deal that would include these principles. President Bush addressed some of these issues last night, and I'm pleased that Senator McCain has decided to embrace them too. Now is a time to come together -- Democrats and Republicans -- in a spirit of cooperation on behalf of the American people. Later today, I'll be traveling to Washington to offer my help in getting this deal done. Then, I'll travel to Oxford on Friday for the first of our presidential debates.

All this of course reminds me of the movie "Fifth Element" a farce of a tale that my son watched at least a hundred times. In the film a meteor was headed to Earth (sometime in the future) and the World had a African American President. Naturally there was a supernatural being who was planted on the planet where she had to find secret ancient religious figures and get to some ancient ruins to activate the four natural elements and her power to destroy this disaster moments before impact----totally cheesy---kind of like McCain's daily campaign stunts. Well isn't this what McCain is attempting to do, come into Washington and save the Republic OR actually the "way of life" and economy?

Or is something else, like the old excuse that you had to go to some funeral or were in the hospital and couldn't take that college final or the dog ate your homework or as Belushi once told Carrie Fischer the Mystery Fiance that had a flat tire? Whatever it is, it appears that a deal will be done and the debates will go on but will McCain be there? Maybe we should Dan Ackroyd?

Serious stuff: The press is all over Rick Davis, McCain's Campaign CEO and as public records come forward it appears he flat out lied and tried to pull the rug over everyone's eyes about his relationship with Freddie Mac. Corporate filing papers looked into by NEWSWEEK clearly showed he was the Treasurer and Director, (there were only two Directors and only a CEO/President) list on the Davis Manafort Consulting Company registered in Virginia. He was the friggin Treasurer so, I am certain he can tell America what the arrangement was for the monthly $15,000 retainer Freddie Mac paid to his firm until August, 32 months or $465,000. This one has legs, in fact, four legs and will run around dogging the campaign.

Let us talk Palin and witchcraft. Can you believe it they got pictures, no a grainy video of her being exponged of any witches spell by a visiting African visitor in 2005 when she was running for Governor. What a weirdo to say the least. Then there is this: She is willing to cooperate with the investigation called TrooperGate but only with those who are her own employees and not the legislature that she said earlier she would. Oh here is why----Cheney's lawyers are there advising her. Either way this is really weird.

Then there is the nefarous efforts to suppress the votes in Colorado Springs and Colorado. It seems our esteemed and unqualified County Clerk sent a letter to Colorado College students that it would be unlawful for them to register to vote in Colorado:

The Clerk and Recorder's Office, which runs local elections, told the college that students whose parents claim them as dependents for tax purposes in another state were not eligible to vote in Colorado. Clerk and Recorder Bob Balink late Tuesday acknowledged his office had incorrectly interpreted state law and said his office works to ensure everyone who's eligible will have a chance to vote.

But now this on the same day. He has hired three temps to go over 21,000 recent voter applications to look for fraud while there is a backlog of voter registrations and says that it is the problem of liberal radical groups. Right Balink----that is why your waste of money last year looking for fraud came up zilch.....Well now this from the Secretary of State, from now on they are going to strictly review every application and if there is a slight mistake like putting down both your drivers license and social security number the application is void. Not that is fraud or nefarous information but not the strict instructions. Can you guess lawsuits---oh yes---Colorado is not on the margins this year and the Obama and Democrats are poised to bring in the calvary....watch for this. This on the heels that mail in ballot advantage by the Republicans has evaperorated in the state.

Colorado Republicans have nearly a 30,000-voter edge in requests for mail-in ballots, but strategists on both sides of the aisle say that may not be enough to overcome the Democrats' historically strong get-out-the-vote efforts on Election Day. The GOP, whose overall voter-registration advantage over Democrats has plummeted 60 percent since the last presidential election, usually excels at racking up early votes. That effort counterbalances the Democrats' Election Day mobilization and the unpredictability of those registered as unaffiliated — a third of the electorate. But Republican strategist Sean Tonner said he was "disconcerted" by the latest ballot request tally because the GOP usually has a bigger edge going into Election Day. Additionally, he said he was concerned that the Republicans in El Paso County trail Democrats in Denver County by 7,500 ballot requests since the two counties tend to cancel each other out.

Okay I am going to sum this all up. McCain and all his men and all his horses, and basically most of the political operatives of the Republican Party, you are left with game tactics and not substance. I used to recall how they bragged they were a "Party of Ideas" and now they are nothing but tactics---political empty game-show antics. Trick plays and no offensive or defensive lines like in football. McCain's latest stunt is evaporating in front of his own eyes because it possesses no substance for McCain is not part of any economic deal making or didn't even read the proposals until Tuesday. The same for trying to call out the NY Times as they were zeroing in on Rick Davis, or the Palin pick, or statement that their tenor or lying would not have taken place if Obama had received McCain's invitation. Tactics, nothing else but empty Russian Dolls. Just remember a stunt he pulled a month ago, suspending the RNC Convention for day, so that GW Bush couldn't make it and then not mention him for the rest of the convention. Furthermore McCain had thoughts of being in Houston during the hurricane and do what----sit with security in the dark----stunts---like pilot acrobatic stunts----stories. That's it---the GOP is about selling stories like the Iraq threat, WMD's in the hands of Saddam giving them to terrorists or forged papers of uranium purchases or Bin Ladin the impossible to find. Yeah stories and no substance.

BREAKING NEWS MORE

MORE BREAKING!

Obama says the debate to go on, he doesn't see the need to go back to Washington and bring presidential politics into the negotiations. Obama stated he started the thoughts privately looking for a non partisan statement on principles that are agreed upon where McCain goes out and says he says he suspends his campaign.

"I believe that we should continue to have the debate," Obama said at a Florida press conference after McCain announced he was unilaterally suspending his campaign in response to the financial crisis."

Representative Barney Frank:

"The Hail Mary Pass of Hail Mary Passes....and also the Mary"

BREAKING NEWS ALERT!
New York Times

McCain Seeks to Delay Presidential Debate

Senator John McCain said he would temporarily suspend his presidential campaign on Thursday to return to Washington to deal with the financial crisis and the bailout package pendin before Congress. Mr. McCain is asking Senator Barack Obama's campaign and the Commission on the Presidential Debates to postpone the debate scheduled for Friday night.

My thoughts: A TIME OUT!
During a campaign everything is about the campaign---or political. The reason; everyone views it that way for a candidate is being judged by every action they take. McCain called a time out. He is losing, he and all of the nation knows it. If he were winning he would not have called a time out. He can now hide from the press and change his entire campaign, try to stop the eroding polls, delay all the voter's decisions going against him in the UNDECIDED's, for at least the time being. He also can dodge the questions and inquiries about his campaign manager, now found to be taking money and lying about it from Freddie Mac. Now let us see how Obama reacts and I am confident he will trump McCain with this stunt like he trumped Clinton and the race and Rev. Wright issue.

Now think about this for a minute, if McCain really wanted to make a bi-partisan agreement do you think he could do it with him in it and he leading it? No McCain is killing any chance for a bi-partisan agreement---why---the campaign.

Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo, echos my thoughts on the McCain ploy in BE HONEST

Let's state outright a few obvious points. Bringing the presidential candidates and their press entourages back to Capitol Hill won't speed or improve the process of coming up with a good bailout deal. It will politicize it. That's so transparently obvious that it barely requires stating. And of course that is the point.

By going public with his 'suspension' announcement as a breaking news statement McCain intended to make any agreement between the candidate impossible. Contrast that with Obama's campaign, which apparently tried to get both campaigns to agree on a common set of principles privately before going public. There's no logical reason there can't be a presidential debate while a bailout plan is being negotiated.

Finally, does anyone think that McCain would have come up with this gambit if his polls were where they were two weeks ago instead of where they are today? Of course, not. This isn't a reaction to the national financial crisis but to the McCain polling crisis.

The McCain supporters who are cheering this aren't doing so because they think it's the right thing to do but because they hope it's ingenious politics.

If anyone can think of any reason why these points are not incontestably accurate, I would be obliged if you could let me know.

He's desperate and reckless. This is what it appears to be: political stunt dressed up as vainglorious self-sacrifice. In other words, typical John McCain.

Let us start with a basic point of credibility where the McCain campaign is now teetering on where the weight of lying advertisements, Palin maintenance, and McCain's flip-flopping double-talk comes to the head with this new revelation: NEWSWEEK and NY TIMES breaking news late yesterday evening Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, had a secret monthly retainer paid by defunct and bailed out Freddie Mac until last month! Freddie Mac continued to send checks to McCain campaign chief's firm after he supposedly stopped working with one of their front organizations and WHILE DOING NOTHING for over TWO YEARS!. Now, Rick Davis, who is part owner of [Rick] Davis Manafort, the firm that is in question, insists that he hasn't drawn any compensation from the firm since 2006 [---is that word smything or was it a lay-away plan?]

Hmmm...let us use the smell test: Rick Davis, the campaign manger who has been caught in so many other different lies, a person without any credibility now is trying make a claim based just on "his word" and absent of actual and irrefutable evidence that he is not connected to lobbying---even though a Freddie Mac Exec has said publicly the only thing Davis had to offer was access to McCain who was known to be running for President.

What else he is saying, [and this doesn't make any sense in the real world], that he hadn't had any contact with the mortgage giants since the "front group" he ran for Freddie Mac, which was shut down in 2005, and a group that's purpose was to lobby for minority home ownership, is now being revealed that in the following year (2006) he asked Freddie Mac to keep sending more checks---apparently in return for no services rendered -- a point, any of you should note. The McCain Campaign appears UNABLE TO DENY. SMELLS like the rotting garbage in my trash can and there still is a day before the truck comes!.

Maybe it is just me but I have done professional services for major corporations and never have I heard of a company paying for services that nothing is being done for the money! In fact, had to have to signed off on those invoices---every month---and accounting would demanded some form approval so there has to be some expectations of a return on investment. So let us see----a retainer for no services at $180,000 annually, (looks like a ghost payroll executive level pay check to me), done in secret, but not drawn upon by the owner of the services firm who has his name on the door---looks like a lay-away plan to me? What is amazing is it is to the tune of half a million dollar$ (plus or minus a few $15,000 installments), where the partner in the company simply defers his compensation for later dividends when they want to close the books. Could it had been a buyout fund in secret?

David Donnelly of the independent Public Action Campaign Fund has a statement on this:

"John McCain's campaign manager and Freddie Mac essentially had what amounts to a secret half a million dollar lay-a-way plan. For almost three years and as late as last month, Freddie Mac made secret, monthly payments of $15,000 to Rick Davis's firm, apparently in exchange for providing special access to a future McCain White House. If McCain knew about this, his presidential campaign should be in serious trouble. If he didn't know about it, he ought to fire Rick Davis immediately," said David Donnelly, Director of Campaign Money Watch.

BREAKING NEWS: NOON----Rick Davis running away! Lynn Sweet, SunTimes:

WASHINGTON--John McCain campaign manager Rick Davis--under the spotlight because of his work for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac--is skipping a Wednesday lunch with reporters sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor.

On Tuesday, word came that McCain political director Mike DuHaime will substitute for Davis because he is "heading out on the trail" today.

Davis is the subject of stories in the New York Times and Newsweek about his work for the failed mortgage market makers. At issue right now: did Davis contradict McCain's statement that he has not been involved with Fannie and Freddie for some time.

Well yesterday the Financial Markets Bail Out hearings and discussion drowned out almost anything else. Except for a few items like the McCain Campaign's daily FUBAR (#ucked up Beyond All Recognition) by trying to break with the press's long standing practice of pool editorial writers accompanying pool camera crews when Palin went and met Karzai of Afghanistan at the UN. This the day after Rick Davis and the Campaign's COO, Steve Schmidt, openly chastised the NY Times and the New York Times:

"It is a pro-Obama organization that every day attacks Senator McCain, attacks Governor Palin, and excuses Senator Obama."

The NY Times response Bill Keller the Times executive editor:

The New York Times is committed to covering the candidates fully, fairly and aggressively. It’s our job to ask hard questions, fact-check their statements and their advertising, examine their programs, positions, biographies and advisers. Candidates and their campaign operatives are not always comfortable with that level of scrutiny, but it’s what our readers expect and deserve.

The press response by Joe Klein takes the press's reaction Not Buying:

Ben Smith fact-checks the McCain campaign's ridiculous conference call assault on the press. But it should be remembered that Steve Schmidt is doing this for two (nefarious) reasons:

1. he's hoping to work the refs: if he complains enough about press bias, we mainstream sorts will cower, cringe and try to seek false equivalences between the two campaigns.

2. the more time we spend covering this nonsense, the less we'll spend on the real issues in this campaign.

Sorry, Steve. Not buying.

I wonder what will be today's McCain FUBAR. I have not seen a Presidential Campaign run and operated so badly in my lifetime---it is a combination of Nixon, Dukakis, Dole and GW Bush---all their bad stuff in one bag. Back to the Bail Out; No matter what comes out this, a new economy will emerge once the old one is dismantled and restructured which will be the most prevailing political event since 9/11 and ultimately define the next Administration and Government for the next decade or two. I am not surprised either. Just how hard will the restructuring be?

No wonder the polls are breaking fast for Obama where now the ABC-Washington Post, considered by the industry to be one of the gold standards of national and state polls gives Obama a NINE Point lead! No wonder the state polls in almost every battleground states have Obama in the lead and there are now emerging battleground states in previously safe Republican states like North Carolina, Nevada and Virginia.

• ABC/WaPo/Wall Street: Obama 52% to McCain 42%
• Rasmussen: Obama 49% to McCain 47%
• Hotline: Obama 48% to McCain 42%
• Gallup Daily Tracking: Obama 47% to McCain 44%
  

Quinnipac State Polls

• COLORADO Obama 47% to McCain 41%
• Michigan Obama 5o% to McCain 38%
• Wisconsin Obama 47% to McCain 40%
• Minnesota Obama 47% to McCain 45%
  

Other State Polls in Battleground States

• In/Adv Ohio: TIE Obama 46% to McCain 46%\
• NBC/Mason Dixon Virginia: McCain 48% to Obama 46%
• FOX News Pennsylvania: Obama 48% to McCain 45%
• NBC/Mason Dixon Florida: Obama 47% to McCain 45%
• PPP New Mexico: Obama 53% to McCain 42%
• Civitas/Tel Opinion: TIE Obama 45% to McCain 45%
• Suffolk U Nevada: McCain 46% to Obama 45%
  

Finally locally we are commencing with a direct effort to increase our Mail In ballot voting to 50 new early votes per precinct. The issue is plain and simple. The elections department now estimates that a voter could take up to thrity to forty-five minutes to vote on the Colorado ballot with all its initiatives if they have not reviewed the questions beforehand. With an expected record turnout, record registrations exceeding 375,000 voters, 380 precincts lines will exceed three to four hours. We now believe our Obama victory will be made or lost by how many Mail In or Early voters we have encouraged to change their manner of voting this year.

HI TOM! You don't like my politics but they are politics of truth....not fantasies.

The world changed 09/15 and it has changed everything including the campaign

When the markets opened last Monday morning and Wall Street began it inevitable crash the world changed. No different than when jets were crashed into the World Trade Centers on 9/11/2001. No different when Soviet Union turnaround on 10/22/1962 and the Cuban Missile Crisis and brink of global thermonuclear war. No different than when the Soviet Union launched Spudnik in 1957 (my birth year). No different than 1948 when the Soviet Union exploded a nuclear weapon. No different than when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor on that day in infamy. No different than on Black Friday on 10/29/1929. Each of those days and events fundamentally changed the world, in many cases they were not unexpected or unpredicted but so prevailing and substantial in their effect that it changed the course of many human beings lives.

The era of post 9/11 is over. The era of post 9/15/2008 Global Financial Markets Meltdown is upon us. The bottom line is that from now on there is no free market anymore. The idea of freedom from regulation and oversight of the financial markets is over. The fundamental philosophy of governance by the conservative forces in our global corporate society has proved to be as effectual as the laissez faire business philosophy of the early 20th Century---it is dead and unsustainable. But the election day comes closer each hour and from that those who will set the agenda, policy and manage the new world will be decided.

Ironically the campaigns diverged from that morning in tone, message, response, and display as how each would govern and not so coincidentally the polls have reflected how the electorate is responding to the campaigns. On that day that changed the world, John McCain read from his script a sound bite that has byte him in the arse since----"the economy is strong." After catching a plane and landing for another speaking engagement he suddenly acknowledged that the "economy was at great risk" but what he had meant earlier that "the fundamentals of the America economy---its work force was still strong". In those few moments McCain and campaign lost any credibility with America. We all knew that was bullshit and then he followed up by digging a deeper hole----by stating that if he was President that he would fire the SEC Chairman Cox as if this was another Brownie. Now he is saying this is the blame of the entire world he fostered by being the deregulator as a member of the Commerce Committee....

But was worse is how George Will characterized McCain's performance over the week where he titles today's column "McCain Loses His Head":

Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama.

Channeling his inner Queen of Hearts, John McCain furiously, and apparently without even looking around at facts, said Chris Cox, chairman of the SEC, should be decapitated. This childish reflex provoked the Wall Street Journal to editorialize that "McCain untethered" -- disconnected from knowledge and principle -- had made a "false and deeply unfair" attack on Cox that was "unpresidential" and demonstrated that McCain "doesn't understand what's happening on Wall Street any better than Barack Obama does."

...consider McCain's characteristic accusation that Cox "has betrayed the public's trust."...In any case, McCain's smear -- that Cox "betrayed the public's trust" -- is a harbinger of a McCain presidency. For McCain, politics is always operatic, pitting people who agree with him against those who are "corrupt" or "betray the public's trust," two categories that seem to be exhaustive -- there are no other people...

Last night on MSNBC's Countdown with Keith Obermann, Jonathan Alter when asked about the McCain campaign he described it as a reflection of the candidate's personality and attitude. When you see a campaign that is angry, that lashes out like McCain's it is natural that his staff are reflecting the personality of its candidate---as in McCain having a temper and rash decision making process. The conclusion: Obama has demonstrated the Presidential makeup to lead a nation at time of serious even potential mortal challenges.

Now today, Obama comes out and coolly states that in light of 09/15/2008:

Barack Obama said: Tuesday the deepening American financial crisis and prospect of a massive government bailout meant he likely would have to delay expansive spending programs outlined during his campaign for the White House.

In an interview with NBC television, Obama said he would have to study what happens to the United States' tax revenues before making decisions on budgeting for his promised initiatives on national health care, education, energy and other concerns.

Full interview on Today Show here:

The thing is this situation will solidify and reasonate as the predominate factor for the foreseeable future no different than the Great Depression, World War II, Cold War, or 9/11.

Now some local reporting: FiveThirtyEight.com was in town and filed this report. What makes this interesting is that they reported on CO Springs as a battleground in the first place.

Though we had problems finding open McCain/Republican Party offices this weekend on the Western Slope, here in Colorado Springs we had no such troubles. Most well-known for being the home of the Air Force Academy and headquarters of Focus on the Family, this is the heart of the Republican Party's social and religious conservative base, and Sarah Palin has done wonders for the McCain ground game....Meanwhile, though we were eager to spend today heavily covering Republican operations given our striking out this weekend, we didn't ignore the Democrats. We stopped into both Obama's Castle Rock and Colorado Springs offices, the latter of which has been open since June and is as robust an operation as we've seen in Nevada, New Mexico, or elsewhere in Colorado.

We met Robert Samuelson, a middle-aged Obama volunteer, who has been spending his days registering voters. A whiteboard in the Obama office listed different volunteers and their total numbers of registrations earned. 100 gets you a free T-shirt, and most names had earned somewhere between 25 and 80 toward that goal. Robert had 341, not including the 12 new ones he'd returned with moments after we arrived. (He doesn't care about the shirts.) He's lived here 15 years and hasn't seen any Democratic presence like this one. He told us a friend of his had been here 30 years but had never seen s Democratic presidential office in Colorado Springs.

Steve Meyer, a retired Air Force Major and former political science professor who taught for 10 years at the Academy and specialized in electoral politics, told us that Obama's presence compared to past Democratic presidential campaigns was "night and day." Meyer volunteers essentially every day organizer hours, 16 hours a day, 7 days a week. Also a former intelligence officer, Meyer is a volunteer phone bank captain near the Skyway and Broadmoor areas.
He told us that the goal for Obama has to be to get near 40% in Colorado Springs.